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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


U.S. Bancorp

U.S. Bancorp (USB)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 18,038.0018,710.8218,961.5419,632.7820,308.1521,142.8121,825.7322,530.7023,258.4424,009.6924,785.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,387.678,438.588,456.858,518.667,950.649,116.789,400.349,703.9710,017.4110,340.9710,674.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,868.187,937.137,975.228,049.447,483.558,649.538,872.169,158.739,454.569,759.9410,075.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 519.49501.45481.62469.22467.09467.26528.18545.24562.85581.03599.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --11,147.4915,704.2619,505.9821,453.6118,348.8918,941.5619,553.3720,184.9420,836.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 52.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,638.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.97
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.85
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.98
Total Debt 41,340.00
Total Equity 85,749.30
Total Capital 127,089.30
Debt Weighting 32.53
Equity Weighting 67.47
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 18,038.0018,710.8218,961.5419,632.7820,308.1521,142.8121,825.7322,530.7023,258.4424,009.6924,785.20
EBITDA 8,387.678,438.588,456.858,518.667,950.649,116.789,400.349,703.9710,017.4110,340.9710,674.99
EBIT 7,868.187,937.137,975.228,049.447,483.558,649.538,872.169,158.739,454.569,759.9410,075.18
Tax Rate 25.83%26.29%26.29%26.85%16.89%17.97%23.35%23.35%23.35%23.35%23.35%
EBIAT 5,836.135,850.365,878.435,888.326,219.297,095.616,800.277,019.927,246.667,480.737,722.36
Depreciation 519.49501.45481.62469.22467.09467.26528.18545.24562.85581.03599.80
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure -----------
UFCF 6,355.626,351.816,360.056,357.556,686.387,562.877,328.457,565.167,809.528,061.778,322.16
WACC
PV UFCF 6,739.436,397.936,073.745,765.985,473.81
SUM PV UFCF 48,101.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8,655.05
Terminal Value 182,595.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 120,100.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 168,201.87
Net Debt 19,886.39
Equity Value 148,315.48
Shares Outstanding 1,638.00
Equity Value Per Share 90.55

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
10.74 (%) 50.00 Sell 53.74 Buy 58.34 Buy 64.13 Buy 71.63 Buy 81.75 Buy 96.13 Buy 118.21 Buy 156.40 Buy
10.24 (%) 47.82 Sell 51.16 Sell 55.22 Buy 60.26 Buy 66.70 Buy 75.20 Buy 86.95 Buy 104.24 Buy 132.21 Buy
9.74 (%) 45.84 Sell 48.83 Sell 52.44 Buy 56.87 Buy 62.44 Buy 69.67 Buy 79.42 Buy 93.27 Buy 114.54 Buy
9.24 (%) 44.05 Sell 46.74 Sell 49.95 Sell 53.86 Buy 58.73 Buy 64.93 Buy 73.12 Buy 84.44 Buy 101.10 Buy
8.74 (%) 42.41 Sell 44.84 Sell 47.72 Sell 51.19 Sell 55.46 Buy 60.83 Buy 67.80 Buy 77.19 Buy 90.55 Buy
8.24 (%) 40.91 Sell 43.11 Sell 45.70 Sell 48.80 Sell 52.57 Buy 57.26 Buy 63.24 Buy 71.13 Buy 82.05 Buy
7.74 (%) 39.53 Sell 41.53 Sell 43.87 Sell 46.65 Sell 50.00 Sell 54.12 Buy 59.29 Buy 66.01 Buy 75.06 Buy
7.24 (%) 38.26 Sell 40.09 Sell 42.21 Sell 44.71 Sell 47.70 Sell 51.33 Sell 55.85 Buy 61.62 Buy 69.23 Buy
6.74 (%) 37.09 Sell 38.76 Sell 40.69 Sell 42.95 Sell 45.63 Sell 48.86 Sell 52.83 Buy 57.82 Buy 64.30 Buy