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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Walmart Inc.

Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 468,651.00476,290.01485,625.30482,080.23485,840.46500,318.50514,377.45522,453.18530,655.69538,986.99547,449.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 35,664.3435,340.7235,984.8333,263.5432,308.3927,317.3923,969.9933,541.4934,068.1034,602.9635,146.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 27,181.7626,481.7226,806.5223,814.7622,251.4916,810.7013,270.9423,144.6823,508.0523,877.1224,251.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8,482.588,858.999,178.329,448.7710,056.9010,506.6910,699.0510,396.8210,560.0510,725.8410,894.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 7,779.617,287.249,129.768,725.656,850.356,754.307,715.668,254.768,384.368,515.998,649.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,748.576,668.066,798.755,640.345,830.095,603.576,275.406,530.666,633.206,737.346,843.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 43,818.8744,866.5245,163.1544,447.8043,045.4643,777.8744,287.9047,177.5247,918.2148,670.5249,434.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 38,101.3337,436.3938,412.9638,470.0041,442.1946,079.3347,065.5444,095.0544,787.3445,490.5046,204.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -12,372.39-12,383.54-11,606.44-10,846.81-10,154.07-9,656.15-9,824.61-11,493.97-11,674.43-11,857.71-12,043.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 113
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,945.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.09
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.90
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.26
Total Debt 50,203.00
Total Equity 332,785.00
Total Capital 382,988.00
Debt Weighting 13.11
Equity Weighting 86.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 468,651.00476,290.01485,625.30482,080.23485,840.46500,318.50514,377.45522,453.18530,655.69538,986.99547,449.08
EBITDA 35,664.3435,340.7235,984.8333,263.5432,308.3927,317.3923,969.9933,541.4934,068.1034,602.9635,146.23
EBIT 27,181.7626,481.7226,806.5223,814.7622,251.4916,810.7013,270.9423,144.6823,508.0523,877.1224,251.99
Tax Rate 31.89%33.59%32.80%30.86%31.26%31.81%39.09%33.04%33.04%33.04%33.04%
EBIAT 18,514.3517,585.7018,015.2416,465.9415,295.8711,463.648,083.0215,497.2615,740.5715,987.7016,238.70
Depreciation 8,482.588,858.999,178.329,448.7710,056.9010,506.6910,699.0510,396.8210,560.0510,725.8410,894.24
Accounts Receivable -80.51-130.691,158.42-189.75226.52-671.84-255.26-102.53-104.14-105.78
Inventories --1,047.65-296.63715.361,402.33-732.40-510.03-2,889.62-740.69-752.32-764.13
Accounts Payable --664.93976.5757.042,972.194,637.14986.20-2,970.49692.29703.16714.20
Capital Expenditure -11.15-777.10-759.64-692.74-497.92168.461,669.36180.46183.29186.17
UFCF 26,996.9424,823.7826,965.7027,085.8828,844.8025,603.6718,754.8721,448.0726,330.1526,743.5327,163.40
WACC
PV UFCF 19,465.1522,764.4822,027.1321,313.67
SUM PV UFCF 212,961.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 28,249.94
Terminal Value 2,912,365.06
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,285,176.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,498,138.04
Net Debt 42,487.34
Equity Value 2,455,650.70
Shares Outstanding 2,945.00
Equity Value Per Share 833.84

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
6.97 (%) 167.63 Buy 187.35 Buy 215.00 Buy 256.58 Buy 326.17 Buy 466.39 Buy 895.75 Buy -27,298.66 Sell -746.64 Sell
6.47 (%) 157.83 Buy 174.48 Buy 197.22 Buy 230.13 Buy 282.01 Buy 375.90 Buy 597.53 Buy 1,762.26 Buy -1,468.22 Sell
5.97 (%) 149.33 Buy 163.54 Buy 182.51 Buy 209.12 Buy 249.12 Buy 316.07 Buy 450.98 Buy 864.05 Buy -26,261.20 Sell
5.47 (%) 141.90 Buy 154.13 Buy 170.16 Buy 192.04 Buy 223.70 Buy 273.63 Buy 363.97 Buy 577.24 Buy 1,698.01 Buy
4.97 (%) 135.34 Buy 145.97 Buy 159.64 Buy 177.90 Buy 203.50 Buy 242.01 Buy 306.44 Buy 436.28 Buy 833.84 Buy
4.47 (%) 129.53 Buy 138.82 Buy 150.60 Buy 166.03 Buy 187.09 Buy 217.57 Buy 265.63 Buy 352.60 Buy 557.89 Buy
3.97 (%) 124.35 Buy 132.52 Buy 142.76 Buy 155.92 Buy 173.50 Buy 198.15 Buy 235.22 Buy 297.25 Buy 422.26 Buy
3.47 (%) 119.70 Buy 126.94 Buy 135.89 Buy 147.23 Buy 162.08 Buy 182.37 Buy 211.72 Buy 258.00 Buy 341.74 Buy
2.97 (%) 115.52 Buy 121.96 Buy 129.83 Buy 139.69 Buy 152.37 Buy 169.30 Buy 193.04 Buy 228.74 Buy 288.49 Buy