Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,620.945,433.764,075.864,345.686,070.056,717.737,102.657,509.637,939.948,394.898,875.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,381.061,356.81826.58944.321,359.081,007.661,482.321,567.261,657.061,752.011,852.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,010.081,042.74503.78539.73806.71456.81909.85961.981,017.111,075.391,137.01
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 370.98314.07322.81404.58552.37550.85572.47605.28639.96676.63715.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,809.342,423.462,197.302,819.482,973.112,219.543,485.983,685.733,896.924,120.214,356.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 241.70238.00187.90219.02223.98276.77310.39328.17346.98366.86387.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 74.7672.2774.5991.6971.6366.51105.83111.89118.31125.08132.25
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 272.62303.20267.78298.55285.29321.78404.85428.05452.58478.51505.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -514.88-1,221.51-1,921.36-1,241.13-948.75-1,602.18-1,955.36-2,067.40-2,185.86-2,311.11-2,443.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 102.6
Diluted Shares Outstanding 107.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -662.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 33.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.31
Total Debt 9,411.14
Total Equity 10,981.48
Total Capital 20,392.62
Debt Weighting 46.15
Equity Weighting 53.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,620.945,433.764,075.864,345.686,070.056,717.737,102.657,509.637,939.948,394.898,875.92
EBITDA 1,381.061,356.81826.58944.321,359.081,007.661,482.321,567.261,657.061,752.011,852.41
EBIT 1,010.081,042.74503.78539.73806.71456.81909.85961.981,017.111,075.391,137.01
Tax Rate -2.48%-0.52%3.80%3.25%-78.67%-662.37%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%
EBIAT 1,035.131,048.16484.61522.191,441.333,482.532,027.422,143.592,266.422,396.282,533.59
Depreciation 370.98314.07322.81404.58552.37550.85572.47605.28639.96676.63715.40
Accounts Receivable -3.7050.10-31.13-4.96-52.79-33.62-17.79-18.80-19.88-21.02
Inventories -2.49-2.32-17.1120.075.12-39.32-6.06-6.41-6.78-7.17
Accounts Payable -30.59-35.4230.76-13.2636.4983.0723.2024.5325.9327.42
Capital Expenditure -706.63699.85-680.23-292.38653.43353.18112.04118.46125.25132.43
UFCF 1,406.122,105.641,519.64229.081,703.174,675.632,963.212,860.263,024.153,197.433,380.64
WACC
PV UFCF 2,344.861,791.091,498.551,253.791,049.01
SUM PV UFCF 6,899.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 26.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,515.87
Terminal Value 15,716.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,876.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,776.60
Net Debt 7,191.60
Equity Value 4,585.00
Shares Outstanding 107.03
Equity Value Per Share 42.84

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
28.37 (%) 33.19 Sell 34.89 Sell 36.72 Sell 38.69 Sell 40.83 Sell 43.15 Sell 45.67 Sell 48.43 Sell 51.47 Sell
27.87 (%) 31.87 Sell 33.48 Sell 35.22 Sell 37.09 Sell 39.11 Sell 41.29 Sell 43.67 Sell 46.27 Sell 49.12 Sell
27.37 (%) 30.61 Sell 32.14 Sell 33.79 Sell 35.56 Sell 37.47 Sell 39.54 Sell 41.78 Sell 44.23 Sell 46.90 Sell
26.87 (%) 29.40 Sell 30.86 Sell 32.43 Sell 34.11 Sell 35.92 Sell 37.87 Sell 39.99 Sell 42.30 Sell 44.81 Sell
26.37 (%) 28.25 Sell 29.64 Sell 31.13 Sell 32.72 Sell 34.44 Sell 36.29 Sell 38.29 Sell 40.47 Sell 42.84 Sell
25.87 (%) 27.16 Sell 28.48 Sell 29.89 Sell 31.41 Sell 33.03 Sell 34.79 Sell 36.68 Sell 38.74 Sell 40.97 Sell
25.37 (%) 26.11 Sell 27.37 Sell 28.71 Sell 30.15 Sell 31.70 Sell 33.36 Sell 35.15 Sell 37.10 Sell 39.20 Sell
24.87 (%) 25.10 Sell 26.30 Sell 27.59 Sell 28.96 Sell 30.42 Sell 32.00 Sell 33.70 Sell 35.54 Sell 37.53 Sell
24.37 (%) 24.14 Sell 25.29 Sell 26.51 Sell 27.81 Sell 29.21 Sell 30.71 Sell 32.32 Sell 34.06 Sell 35.94 Sell