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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Wynn Resorts Limited

Wynn Resorts Limited (WYNN)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,620.945,433.764,075.864,345.686,070.056,717.737,102.657,509.637,939.948,394.898,875.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,381.061,356.81826.58944.321,359.081,007.661,526.361,613.821,706.291,804.061,907.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,010.081,042.74503.78539.73806.71456.81970.931,026.571,085.391,147.581,213.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 370.98314.07322.81404.58552.37550.85555.43587.25620.90656.48694.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,809.342,423.462,197.302,819.482,973.112,219.543,496.643,696.993,908.834,132.814,369.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 241.70238.00187.90219.02223.98276.77309.68327.42346.18366.02386.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 74.7672.2774.5991.6971.6366.51103.70109.64115.92122.57129.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 272.62303.20267.78298.55285.29321.78394.91417.54441.46466.76493.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -514.88-1,221.51-1,921.36-1,241.13-948.75-1,602.18-1,738.02-1,837.61-1,942.90-2,054.23-2,171.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 130.3
Diluted Shares Outstanding 106.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -662.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 33.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.31
Total Debt 9,411.14
Total Equity 13,880.73
Total Capital 23,291.87
Debt Weighting 40.41
Equity Weighting 59.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,620.945,433.764,075.864,345.686,070.056,717.737,102.657,509.637,939.948,394.898,875.92
EBITDA 1,381.061,356.81826.58944.321,359.081,007.661,526.361,613.821,706.291,804.061,907.44
EBIT 1,010.081,042.74503.78539.73806.71456.81970.931,026.571,085.391,147.581,213.34
Tax Rate -2.48%-0.52%3.80%3.25%-78.67%-662.37%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%-122.83%
EBIAT 1,035.131,048.16484.61522.191,441.333,482.532,163.532,287.502,418.572,557.162,703.68
Depreciation 370.98314.07322.81404.58552.37550.85555.43587.25620.90656.48694.10
Accounts Receivable -3.7050.10-31.13-4.96-52.79-32.91-17.74-18.76-19.84-20.97
Inventories -2.49-2.32-17.1120.075.12-37.19-5.94-6.28-6.64-7.02
Accounts Payable -30.59-35.4230.76-13.2636.4973.1322.6323.9225.3026.75
Capital Expenditure -706.63699.85-680.23-292.38653.43135.8499.59105.29111.33117.71
UFCF 1,406.122,105.641,519.64229.081,703.174,675.632,857.832,973.283,143.653,323.783,514.23
WACC
PV UFCF 2,284.071,899.251,604.921,356.211,146.03
SUM PV UFCF 7,273.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 25.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,654.80
Terminal Value 17,304.94
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,643.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,916.37
Net Debt 7,191.60
Equity Value 5,724.77
Shares Outstanding 106.53
Equity Value Per Share 53.74