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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel Corporation (X)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,424.0017,507.6411,574.3010,261.7712,250.5014,178.7313,905.0813,636.7213,373.5313,115.4212,862.29
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1,216.201,039.95-655.11305.801,169.921,644.73404.64396.83389.17381.66374.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1,900.96413.18-1,202.57-201.13668.881,124.37-173.81-170.46-167.17-163.94-160.78
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 684.76626.77547.46506.93501.05520.36578.45567.29556.34545.60535.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 604.611,353.34754.641,514.641,553.36999.601,209.741,186.391,163.501,141.041,119.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,596.182,881.761,603.041,776.311,858.402,172.182,155.292,113.692,072.902,032.891,993.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,688.522,496.592,074.111,573.131,738.352,091.362,128.872,087.782,047.492,007.971,969.22
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,728.603,004.311,954.902,067.752,568.932,974.702,591.912,541.882,492.832,444.712,397.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -465.22-451.70-496.54-294.51-499.82-991.09-543.69-533.20-522.90-512.81-502.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.14
Diluted Shares Outstanding 177.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -37.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 24.64
Total Debt 2,316.00
Total Equity 2,329.31
Total Capital 4,645.31
Debt Weighting 49.86
Equity Weighting 50.14
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,424.0017,507.6411,574.3010,261.7712,250.5014,178.7313,905.0813,636.7213,373.5313,115.4212,862.29
EBITDA -1,216.201,039.95-655.11305.801,169.921,644.73404.64396.83389.17381.66374.29
EBIT -1,900.96413.18-1,202.57-201.13668.881,124.37-173.81-170.46-167.17-163.94-160.78
Tax Rate 26.30%40.00%-12.54%-5.77%-28.57%-37.32%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%
EBIAT -1,401.02247.91-1,353.41-212.73859.991,543.94-179.00-175.54-172.16-168.83-165.58
Depreciation 684.76626.77547.46506.93501.05520.36578.45567.29556.34545.60535.07
Accounts Receivable --285.581,278.72-173.27-82.09-313.7816.8941.6040.7940.0139.23
Inventories -191.93422.47500.98-165.22-353.02-37.5141.0940.2939.5238.75
Accounts Payable -275.71-1,049.41112.85501.18405.77-382.79-50.02-49.06-48.11-47.18
Capital Expenditure --13.5244.84-202.02205.31491.27-447.40-10.49-10.29-10.09-9.90
UFCF -716.261,043.22-109.32532.731,820.222,294.54-451.35413.91405.92398.09390.40
WACC
PV UFCF -389.84308.77261.54221.54187.65
SUM PV UFCF 2,457.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 406.02
Terminal Value 3,446.70
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,656.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,114.55
Net Debt 1,316.40
Equity Value 2,798.15
Shares Outstanding 177.27
Equity Value Per Share 15.78