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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


United States Steel Corporation

United States Steel Corporation (X)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,424.0017,507.6411,574.3010,261.7712,250.5014,178.7313,905.0813,636.7213,373.5313,115.4212,862.29
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1,216.201,039.95-655.11305.801,169.921,644.73678.57665.47652.63640.03627.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1,900.96413.18-1,202.57-201.13668.881,124.3794.5592.7390.9489.1887.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 684.76626.77547.46506.93501.05520.36584.01572.74561.69550.85540.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 604.611,353.34754.641,514.641,553.36999.601,355.751,329.581,303.921,278.751,254.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,596.182,881.761,603.041,776.311,858.402,172.182,171.972,130.052,088.942,048.632,009.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,688.522,496.592,074.111,573.131,738.352,091.362,126.092,085.052,044.812,005.351,966.64
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,728.603,004.311,954.902,067.752,568.932,974.702,673.952,622.342,571.732,522.092,473.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -465.22-451.70-496.54-294.51-499.82-991.09-578.45-567.29-556.34-545.60-535.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -37.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 24.64
Total Debt 2,316.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 2,316.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 17,424.0017,507.6411,574.3010,261.7712,250.5014,178.7313,905.0813,636.7213,373.5313,115.4212,862.29
EBITDA -1,216.201,039.95-655.11305.801,169.921,644.73678.57665.47652.63640.03627.68
EBIT -1,900.96413.18-1,202.57-201.13668.881,124.3794.5592.7390.9489.1887.46
Tax Rate 26.30%40.00%-12.54%-5.77%-28.57%-37.32%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%-2.98%
EBIAT -1,401.02247.91-1,353.41-212.73859.991,543.9497.3895.5093.6591.8590.07
Depreciation 684.76626.77547.46506.93501.05520.36584.01572.74561.69550.85540.22
Accounts Receivable --285.581,278.72-173.27-82.09-313.780.2141.9241.1140.3239.54
Inventories -191.93422.47500.98-165.22-353.02-34.7241.0340.2439.4638.70
Accounts Payable -275.71-1,049.41112.85501.18405.77-300.75-51.61-50.61-49.63-48.68
Capital Expenditure --13.5244.84-202.02205.31491.27-412.64-11.16-10.95-10.74-10.53
UFCF -716.261,043.22-109.32532.731,820.222,294.54-66.52688.42675.13662.10649.32
WACC
PV UFCF -62.24602.76553.12507.58465.78
SUM PV UFCF 4,795.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) 675.30
Terminal Value 23,529.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,878.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,673.79
Net Debt 1,316.40
Equity Value 20,357.39
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
8.87 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
8.37 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
7.87 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
7.37 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
6.87 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
6.37 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
5.87 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
5.37 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
4.87 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy