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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Zions Bancorporation

Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,120.872,270.822,031.932,289.982,584.932,820.942,997.243,184.573,383.613,595.083,819.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 537.43679.20537.04828.061,114.881,335.991,096.991,165.551,238.401,315.801,398.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 406.78621.52451.09705.09936.001,143.04941.731,000.591,063.131,129.571,200.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 130.6557.6885.95122.97178.88192.95155.26164.96175.27186.23197.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --13,014.493,559.092,111.891,851.947,068.107,509.867,979.228,477.929,007.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -88.65-175.76-157.07-196.02-169.05-128.92-210.71-223.88-237.87-252.73-268.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39.15
Diluted Shares Outstanding 206.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.66
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.08
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.29
Total Debt 724.00
Total Equity 8,084.51
Total Capital 8,808.51
Debt Weighting 8.22
Equity Weighting 91.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,120.872,270.822,031.932,289.982,584.932,820.942,997.243,184.573,383.613,595.083,819.78
EBITDA 537.43679.20537.04828.061,114.881,335.991,096.991,165.551,238.401,315.801,398.04
EBIT 406.78621.52451.09705.09936.001,143.04941.731,000.591,063.131,129.571,200.17
Tax Rate 35.15%35.88%31.49%33.48%36.75%22.66%32.57%32.57%32.57%32.57%32.57%
EBIAT 263.80398.53309.06469.06592.00884.03635.04674.73716.90761.71809.31
Depreciation 130.6557.6885.95122.97178.88192.95155.26164.96175.27186.23197.86
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure -87.11-18.6938.95-26.97-40.1481.7913.1713.9914.8715.80
UFCF 394.45543.31376.32630.98743.911,036.85872.09852.86906.16962.801,022.97
WACC
PV UFCF 768.83662.86620.90581.60544.79
SUM PV UFCF 3,784.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,063.89
Terminal Value 11,282.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,008.23

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,792.75
Net Debt -1,127.94
Equity Value 10,920.70
Shares Outstanding 206.50
Equity Value Per Share 52.88

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
15.43 (%) 41.73 Buy 43.17 Buy 44.83 Buy 46.76 Buy 49.02 Buy 51.71 Buy 54.98 Buy 59.02 Buy 64.15 Buy
14.93 (%) 40.78 Buy 42.11 Buy 43.63 Buy 45.38 Buy 47.42 Buy 49.85 Buy 52.75 Buy 56.31 Buy 60.77 Buy
14.43 (%) 39.90 Buy 41.12 Buy 42.52 Buy 44.12 Buy 45.97 Buy 48.16 Buy 50.76 Buy 53.91 Buy 57.81 Buy
13.93 (%) 39.08 Sell 40.21 Buy 41.49 Buy 42.96 Buy 44.65 Buy 46.62 Buy 48.96 Buy 51.76 Buy 55.20 Buy
13.43 (%) 38.32 Sell 39.36 Buy 40.54 Buy 41.89 Buy 43.43 Buy 45.23 Buy 47.33 Buy 49.84 Buy 52.88 Buy
12.93 (%) 37.61 Sell 38.58 Sell 39.67 Buy 40.90 Buy 42.32 Buy 43.95 Buy 45.85 Buy 48.11 Buy 50.82 Buy
12.43 (%) 36.94 Sell 37.84 Sell 38.85 Sell 39.99 Buy 41.29 Buy 42.78 Buy 44.51 Buy 46.54 Buy 48.97 Buy
11.93 (%) 36.32 Sell 37.15 Sell 38.09 Sell 39.14 Sell 40.34 Buy 41.70 Buy 43.28 Buy 45.12 Buy 47.30 Buy
11.43 (%) 35.73 Sell 36.51 Sell 37.38 Sell 38.36 Sell 39.46 Buy 40.71 Buy 42.15 Buy 43.82 Buy 45.78 Buy