Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Zynga Inc.

Zynga Inc. (ZNGA)

$9.25
0.14 (+1.54%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 873.30690.43764.72741.40861.36907.181,321.581,440.391,569.881,711.011,864.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 64.10-150.31-75.86-62.9467.8768.49143.79-13.40-14.60-15.91-17.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -64.89-233.23-130.16-104.6937.5626.4064.36-123.87-135.01-147.15-160.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 128.9982.9254.3041.7430.3242.0979.43110.48120.41131.23143.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,125.51916.48987.26852.46681.42581.231,361.491,547.121,686.211,837.802,003.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 65.6789.6279.6177.25103.7191.63140.09152.39166.09181.03197.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.9614.9829.6724.0231.7061.7857.7554.7359.6665.0270.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.77-9.18-7.80-10.31-9.99-11.43-23.66-18.15-19.78-21.56-23.50
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.25
Diluted Shares Outstanding 974.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.43
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.78
Total Debt 570.46
Total Equity 9,009.68
Total Capital 9,580.14
Debt Weighting 5.95
Equity Weighting 94.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 873.30690.43764.72741.40861.36907.181,321.581,440.391,569.881,711.011,864.83
EBITDA 64.10-150.31-75.86-62.9467.8768.49143.79-13.40-14.60-15.91-17.34
EBIT -64.89-233.23-130.16-104.6937.5626.4064.36-123.87-135.01-147.15-160.38
Tax Rate 42.99%3.13%6.66%-3.29%29.12%41.59%11.43%18.80%18.80%18.80%18.80%
EBIAT -36.99-225.93-121.49-108.1326.6215.4257.00-100.58-109.62-119.48-130.22
Depreciation 128.9982.9254.3041.7430.3242.0979.43110.48120.41131.23143.03
Accounts Receivable --23.9510.012.35-26.4512.08-48.46-12.31-13.70-14.93-16.27
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --5.9814.69-5.657.6830.08-4.03-3.024.925.365.85
Capital Expenditure -1.41-1.382.51-0.311.4412.23-5.511.631.781.94
UFCF 91.99-171.52-43.87-67.1837.85101.1196.17-10.933.643.974.32
WACC
PV UFCF -10.443.323.453.59
SUM PV UFCF 13.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.50
Terminal Value 599.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 475.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 489.01
Net Debt 147.13
Equity Value 341.88
Shares Outstanding 974.02
Equity Value Per Share 0.35