Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Zynga Inc (ZNGA)
$8.98
-0.01 (-0.11%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 873.30 | 690.40 | 764.72 | 741.42 | 861.39 | 907.21 | 1,321.66 | 1,440.52 | 1,570.06 | 1,711.26 | 1,865.16 | 2,032.89 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 68.21 | -147.03 | -73.30 | -59.90 | 73.16 | 74.81 | 143.75 | -7.27 | -7.92 | -8.64 | -9.41 | -10.26 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBIT | -60.79 | -229.93 | -127.61 | -101.67 | 42.87 | 32.76 | 64.31 | -117.74 | -128.32 | -139.86 | -152.44 | -166.15 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 129.00 | 82.90 | 54.31 | 41.77 | 30.29 | 42.06 | 79.45 | 110.47 | 120.40 | 131.23 | 143.03 | 155.89 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,125.50 | 916.50 | 987.25 | 852.47 | 681.38 | 581.22 | 1,361.50 | 1,547.30 | 1,686.45 | 1,838.11 | 2,003.42 | 2,183.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 72.60 | 92.90 | 84.84 | 77.56 | 103.68 | 91.63 | 140.08 | 156.52 | 170.60 | 185.94 | 202.66 | 220.89 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.00 | 15.00 | 29.68 | 24.00 | 31.74 | 61.81 | 57.80 | 54.67 | 59.59 | 64.94 | 70.79 | 77.15 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.80 | -9.20 | -7.83 | -10.31 | -9.97 | -11.47 | -23.64 | -18.21 | -19.85 | -21.64 | -23.58 | -25.70 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.98 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.252 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 974.02 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 11.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 4.463 |
| Total Debt | 570.46 |
| Total Equity | 8,746.70 |
| Total Capital | 9,317.16 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.12 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.88 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 873.30 | 690.40 | 764.72 | 741.42 | 861.39 | 907.21 | 1,321.66 | 1,440.52 | 1,570.06 | 1,711.26 | 1,865.16 | 2,032.89 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 68.21 | -147.03 | -73.30 | -59.90 | 73.16 | 74.81 | 143.75 | -7.27 | -7.92 | -8.64 | -9.41 | -10.26 |
| EBIT | -60.79 | -229.93 | -127.61 | -101.67 | 42.87 | 32.76 | 64.31 | -117.74 | -128.32 | -139.86 | -152.44 | -166.15 |
| Tax Rate | 42.99% | 3.13% | 6.66% | -3.29% | 29.12% | 41.59% | 11.43% | 18.80% | 18.80% | 18.80% | 18.80% | 18.80% |
| EBIAT | -34.66 | -222.73 | -119.11 | -105.02 | 30.39 | 19.13 | 56.96 | -95.60 | -104.19 | -113.56 | -123.78 | -134.91 |
| Depreciation | 129.00 | 82.90 | 54.31 | 41.77 | 30.29 | 42.06 | 79.45 | 110.47 | 120.40 | 131.23 | 143.03 | 155.89 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -20.30 | 8.06 | 7.29 | -26.12 | 12.05 | -48.45 | -16.44 | -14.08 | -15.34 | -16.72 | -18.23 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -6.00 | 14.68 | -5.68 | 7.74 | 30.07 | -4.01 | -3.13 | 4.92 | 5.36 | 5.84 | 6.37 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.80 | -9.20 | -7.83 | -10.31 | -9.97 | -11.47 | -23.64 | -18.21 | -19.85 | -21.64 | -23.58 | -25.70 |
| UFCF | 86.54 | -175.33 | -49.90 | -71.95 | 32.33 | 91.84 | 60.30 | -22.92 | -12.81 | -13.96 | -15.21 | -16.58 |
| WACC | ||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -21.94 | -11.73 | -12.24 | -12.78 | -13.33 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -72.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.46 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -17.24 |
| Terminal Value | -3,748.48 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,013.73 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,085.76 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 147.13 |
| Equity Value | -3,232.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 974.02 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3.32 |