AAPL 166.74 -4.13 (-2.41%)MSFT 107.48 -1.98 (-1.81%)FB 145.36 +0.33 (+0.23%)ZNGA 3.66 -0.08 (-2.01%)NVDA 147.91 -0.95 (-0.64%)WBA 79.09 -3.23 (-3.92%)GOOG 1049.8 -12.2 (-1.15%)PIH 5 -0.12 (-2.34%)
AAPL 166.74 -4.13 (-2.41%)MSFT 107.48 -1.98 (-1.81%)FB 145.36 +0.33 (+0.23%)ZNGA 3.66 -0.08 (-2.01%)NVDA 147.91 -0.95 (-0.64%)WBA 79.09 -3.23 (-3.92%)GOOG 1049.8 -12.2 (-1.15%)PIH 5 -0.12 (-2.34%)

Market Risk Premium

Historical average realized returns

Data
Year S&P 500 T-Bond Dividend Dividend % T-Bond Return T-Bill Return S&P 500 Return
1927 17.66 3.17% 0.62 3.51%
1928 24.35 3.45% 1.05 4.31% 0.84% 3.08% 43.83%
1929 21.45 3.36% 0.88 4.10% 4.20% 3.16% -8.30%
1930 15.34 3.22% 0.72 4.69% 4.54% 4.55% -25.13%
1931 8.12 3.93% 0.50 6.16% -2.56% 2.31% -43.81%
1932 6.92 3.35% 0.50 7.23% 8.79% 1.07% -8.62%
1933 9.97 3.53% 0.41 4.11% 1.86% 0.96% 50.00%
1934 9.5 3.01% 0.35 3.68% 7.96% 0.32% -1.20%
1935 13.43 2.84% 0.51 3.80% 4.47% 0.18% 46.74%
1936 17.18 2.59% 0.54 3.14% 5.02% 0.17% 31.94%
1937 10.55 2.73% 0.56 5.31% 1.38% 0.30% -35.33%
1938 13.14 2.56% 0.50 3.81% 4.21% 0.08% 29.29%
1939 12.46 2.35% 0.54 4.33% 4.41% 0.04% -1.07%
1940 10.58 2.01% 0.55 5.20% 5.40% 0.03% -10.67%
1941 8.69 2.47% 0.54 6.21% -2.02% 0.08% -12.76%
1942 9.77 2.49% 0.59 6.04% 2.29% 0.34% 19.22%
1943 11.67 2.49% 0.55 4.71% 2.49% 0.38% 25.08%
1944 13.28 2.48% 0.61 4.59% 2.58% 0.38% 19.02%
1945 17.36 2.33% 0.68 3.92% 3.80% 0.38% 35.84%
1946 15.3 2.24% 0.60 3.92% 3.13% 0.38% -8.41%
1947 15.3 2.39% 0.80 5.23% 0.92% 0.57% 5.23%
1948 15.2 2.44% 0.97 6.38% 1.95% 1.02% 5.69%
1949 16.79 2.19% 1.19 7.09% 4.66% 1.10% 18.29%
1950 20.43 2.39% 1.53 7.49% 0.43% 1.17% 30.79%
1951 23.77 2.70% 1.50 6.31% -0.30% 1.48% 23.69%
1952 26.57 2.75% 1.51 5.68% 2.27% 1.67% 18.13%
1953 24.81 2.59% 1.44 5.80% 4.14% 1.89% -1.20%
1954 35.98 2.51% 1.87 5.20% 3.29% 0.96% 52.56%
1955 45.48 2.96% 2.23 4.90% -1.34% 1.66% 32.60%
1956 46.67 3.59% 2.19 4.69% -2.26% 2.56% 7.43%
1957 39.99 3.21% 1.80 4.50% 6.80% 3.23% -10.46%
1958 55.21 3.86% 2.26 4.09% -2.10% 1.78% 43.71%
1959 59.89 4.69% 1.98 3.31% -2.65% 3.26% 12.06%
1960 58.11 3.84% 1.98 3.41% 11.64% 3.05% 0.33%
1961 71.55 4.06% 2.04 2.85% 2.06% 2.27% 26.64%
1962 63.1 3.86% 2.15 3.41% 5.69% 2.78% -8.81%
1963 75.02 4.13% 2.35 3.13% 1.68% 3.11% 22.61%
1964 84.75 4.18% 2.58 3.04% 3.73% 3.51% 16.41%
1965 92.43 4.62% 2.83 3.06% 0.72% 3.90% 12.40%
1966 80.33 4.84% 2.88 3.59% 2.91% 4.84% -9.98%
1967 96.47 5.70% 2.98 3.09% -1.58% 4.33% 23.80%
1968 103.86 6.03% 3.04 2.93% 3.27% 5.26% 10.81%
1969 92.06 7.65% 3.24 3.52% -5.01% 6.56% -8.24%
1970 92.15 6.39% 3.19 3.46% 16.75% 6.69% 3.56%
1971 102.09 5.93% 3.16 3.10% 9.79% 4.54% 14.22%
1972 118.05 6.36% 3.19 2.70% 2.82% 3.95% 18.76%
1973 97.55 6.74% 3.61 3.70% 3.66% 6.73% -14.31%
1974 68.56 7.43% 3.72 5.43% 1.99% 7.78% -25.90%
1975 90.19 8.00% 3.73 4.14% 3.61% 5.99% 36.99%
1976 107.46 6.87% 4.22 3.93% 15.98% 4.97% 23.83%
1977 95.1 7.69% 4.86 5.11% 1.29% 5.13% -6.98%
1978 96.11 9.01% 5.18 5.39% -0.78% 6.93% 6.51%
1979 107.94 10.39% 5.97 5.53% 0.67% 9.94% 18.52%
1980 135.76 12.84% 6.44 4.74% -2.99% 11.22% 31.74%
1981 122.55 13.72% 6.83 5.57% 8.20% 14.30% -4.70%
1982 140.64 10.54% 6.93 4.93% 32.81% 11.01% 20.42%
1983 164.93 11.83% 7.12 4.32% 3.20% 8.45% 22.33%
1984 167.24 11.50% 7.83 4.68% 13.73% 9.61% 6.15%
1985 211.28 9.26% 8.20 3.88% 25.71% 7.49% 31.24%
1986 242.17 7.11% 8.19 3.38% 24.28% 6.04% 18.50%
1987 247.08 8.99% 9.17 3.71% -4.96% 5.72% 5.81%
1988 277.72 9.11% 10.22 3.68% 8.22% 6.45% 16.54%
1989 353.4 7.84% 11.73 3.32% 17.69% 8.11% 31.47%
1990 330.22 8.08% 12.35 3.74% 6.24% 7.55% -3.06%
1991 417.09 7.09% 12.97 3.11% 15.00% 5.61% 30.23%
1992 435.71 6.77% 12.64 2.90% 9.36% 3.41% 7.49%
1993 466.45 5.77% 12.69 2.72% 14.21% 2.98% 9.97%
1994 459.27 7.81% 13.36 2.91% -8.04% 3.99% 1.32%
1995 615.93 5.71% 14.17 2.30% 23.48% 5.52% 37.20%
1996 740.74 6.30% 14.89 2.01% 1.43% 5.02% 22.68%
1997 970.43 5.81% 15.52 1.60% 9.94% 5.05% 33.10%
1998 1229.23 4.65% 16.20 1.32% 14.92% 4.73% 28.34%
1999 1469.25 6.44% 16.71 1.14% -8.25% 4.51% 20.89%
2000 1320.28 5.11% 16.27 1.23% 16.66% 5.76% -9.03%
2001 1148.09 5.05% 15.74 1.37% 5.57% 3.67% -11.85%
2002 879.82 3.82% 16.08 1.83% 15.12% 1.66% -21.97%
2003 1111.91 4.25% 17.39 1.56% 0.38% 1.03% 28.36%
2004 1211.92 4.22% 19.44 1.60% 4.49% 1.23% 10.74%
2005 1248.29 4.39% 22.22 1.78% 2.87% 3.01% 4.83%
2006 1418.3 4.70% 24.88 1.75% 1.96% 4.68% 15.61%
2007 1468.36 4.02% 27.73 1.89% 10.21% 4.64% 5.48%
2008 903.25 2.21% 28.39 3.14% 20.10% 1.59% -36.55%
2009 1115.1 3.84% 22.41 2.01% -11.12% 0.14% 25.94%
2010 1257.64 3.29% 22.73 1.81% 8.46% 0.13% 14.82%
2011 1257.6 1.88% 26.43 2.10% 16.04% 0.03% 2.10%
2012 1426.19 1.76% 31.25 2.19% 2.97% 0.05% 15.89%
2013 1848.36 3.04% 36.28 1.96% -9.14% 0.07% 32.15%
2014 2058.9 2.17% 39.44 1.92% 10.79% 0.05% 13.52%
2015 2043.9 2.27% 43.00 2.10% 1.28% 0.21% 1.36%
2016 2238.83 2.45% 45.03 2.01% 0.69% 0.51% 11.74%
Arithmetic Average
Year S&P 500 Return T-Bill Return T-Bond Return
1928-2016 11.42% 3.46% 5.18%
1967-2016 11.45% 4.88% 7.08%
2007-2016 8.64% 0.74% 5.03%
Geometric Average
Year S&P 500 Return T-Bill Return T-Bond Return
1928-2016 9.53% 3.38% 4.91%
1967-2016 10.09% 4.83% 6.66%
2007-2016 6.88% 0.73% 4.58%
Risk Premium Arithmetic Average
Year Risk Premium T-Bill Return Risk Premium T-Bond Return
1928-2016 7.96% 6.24%
1967-2016 6.57% 4.37%
2007-2016 7.90% 3.62%
Risk Premium Geometric Average
Year Risk Premium T-Bill Return Risk Premium T-Bond Return
1928-2016 6.15% 4.62%
1967-2016 5.25% 3.42%
2007-2016 6.15% 2.30%