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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Andeavor

Andeavor (ANDV)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,601.0040,631.6428,710.3224,581.7734,974.9535,555.5336,145.7536,745.7737,355.7537,975.8638,606.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,319.802,259.123,603.142,401.642,574.162,755.552,801.302,847.802,895.072,943.132,991.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 830.981,698.402,848.061,551.111,552.891,923.551,955.491,987.952,020.952,054.492,088.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 488.81560.72755.08850.531,021.27832.00845.81859.85874.12888.64903.39
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash -----------
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,278.431,413.98778.051,091.431,881.651,379.551,402.461,425.741,449.401,473.461,497.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,564.392,437.902,302.572,640.083,630.402,983.113,032.633,082.973,134.153,186.173,239.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,594.472,470.401,567.582,032.913,329.622,577.782,620.572,664.072,708.292,753.252,798.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -571.54-686.67-1,030.70-894.78-1,346.54-1,013.33-1,030.15-1,047.25-1,064.64-1,082.31-1,100.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 152.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 141.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -37.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.90
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.04
Total Debt 7,668.00
Total Equity 21,481.35
Total Capital 29,149.35
Debt Weighting 26.31
Equity Weighting 73.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,601.0040,631.6428,710.3224,581.7734,974.9535,555.5336,145.7536,745.7737,355.7537,975.8638,606.26
EBITDA 1,319.802,259.123,603.142,401.642,574.162,755.552,801.302,847.802,895.072,943.132,991.98
EBIT 830.981,698.402,848.061,551.111,552.891,923.551,955.491,987.952,020.952,054.492,088.60
Tax Rate 39.41%42.42%41.44%42.52%-37.04%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%
EBIAT 503.48977.971,667.69891.552,128.081,428.221,451.921,476.031,500.531,525.441,550.76
Depreciation 488.81560.72755.08850.531,021.27832.00845.81859.85874.12888.64903.39
Accounts Receivable --135.55635.93-313.38-790.22502.10-22.90-23.28-23.67-24.06-24.46
Inventories -126.49135.33-337.52-990.32647.29-49.52-50.34-51.18-52.03-52.89
Accounts Payable --124.07-902.82465.331,296.70-751.8442.7943.5044.2244.9645.70
Capital Expenditure -115.14344.03-135.92451.76-333.2016.8217.1017.3817.6717.97
UFCF 992.291,520.712,635.241,420.593,117.272,324.562,284.932,322.862,361.422,400.622,440.47
WACC
PV UFCF 2,324.562,064.451,896.201,741.671,599.731,469.36
SUM PV UFCF 12,941.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,538.09
Terminal Value 37,995.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 22,876.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 35,817.27
Net Debt 7,668.00
Equity Value 28,149.27
Shares Outstanding 141.00
Equity Value Per Share 199.64