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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Andeavor

Andeavor (ANDV)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,601.0040,631.6428,710.3224,581.7734,974.9535,555.5336,145.7536,745.7737,355.7537,975.8638,606.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,319.802,259.123,603.142,401.642,574.163,132.443,184.443,237.303,291.043,345.673,401.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 830.981,698.402,848.061,551.111,552.892,208.002,244.652,281.912,319.792,358.302,397.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 488.81560.72755.08850.531,021.27924.44939.79955.39971.25987.371,003.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash -----------
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,278.431,413.98778.051,091.431,881.651,422.221,445.831,469.831,494.231,519.031,544.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,564.392,437.902,302.572,640.083,630.403,121.783,173.603,226.283,279.843,334.283,389.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,594.472,470.401,567.582,032.913,329.622,606.222,649.482,693.472,738.182,783.632,829.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -571.54-686.67-1,030.70-894.78-1,346.54-1,134.22-1,153.05-1,172.19-1,191.65-1,211.43-1,231.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 152.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 141.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -37.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.90
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.04
Total Debt 7,668.00
Total Equity 21,481.35
Total Capital 29,149.35
Debt Weighting 26.31
Equity Weighting 73.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,601.0040,631.6428,710.3224,581.7734,974.9535,555.5336,145.7536,745.7737,355.7537,975.8638,606.26
EBITDA 1,319.802,259.123,603.142,401.642,574.163,132.443,184.443,237.303,291.043,345.673,401.21
EBIT 830.981,698.402,848.061,551.111,552.892,208.002,244.652,281.912,319.792,358.302,397.45
Tax Rate 39.41%42.42%41.44%42.52%-37.04%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%25.75%
EBIAT 503.48977.971,667.69891.552,128.081,639.411,666.631,694.291,722.421,751.011,780.08
Depreciation 488.81560.72755.08850.531,021.27924.44939.79955.39971.25987.371,003.76
Accounts Receivable --135.55635.93-313.38-790.22459.43-23.61-24.00-24.40-24.80-25.22
Inventories -126.49135.33-337.52-990.32508.62-51.82-52.68-53.56-54.45-55.35
Accounts Payable --124.07-902.82465.331,296.70-723.3943.2643.9844.7145.4546.21
Capital Expenditure -115.14344.03-135.92451.76-212.3118.8319.1419.4619.7820.11
UFCF 992.291,520.712,635.241,420.593,117.272,596.202,593.082,636.122,679.882,724.372,769.59
WACC
PV UFCF 2,596.202,342.862,151.931,976.551,815.471,667.52
SUM PV UFCF 13,732.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,880.38
Terminal Value 43,119.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 25,961.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 39,693.67
Net Debt 7,668.00
Equity Value 32,025.67
Shares Outstanding 141.00
Equity Value Per Share 227.13

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.68 (%) 141.09 Sell 150.60 Sell 161.89 Buy 175.51 Buy 192.26 Buy 213.39 Buy 240.83 Buy 277.94 Buy 330.91 Buy
12.18 (%) 135.23 Sell 143.84 Sell 153.99 Buy 166.14 Buy 180.93 Buy 199.34 Buy 222.88 Buy 254.03 Buy 297.21 Buy
11.68 (%) 129.85 Sell 137.68 Sell 146.84 Sell 157.73 Buy 170.85 Buy 187.01 Buy 207.37 Buy 233.83 Buy 269.60 Buy
11.18 (%) 124.91 Sell 132.04 Sell 140.34 Sell 150.13 Sell 161.84 Buy 176.10 Buy 193.85 Buy 216.55 Buy 246.59 Buy
10.68 (%) 120.35 Sell 126.87 Sell 134.41 Sell 143.25 Sell 153.74 Buy 166.40 Buy 181.98 Buy 201.62 Buy 227.13 Buy
10.18 (%) 116.13 Sell 122.11 Sell 128.98 Sell 136.99 Sell 146.43 Sell 157.73 Buy 171.49 Buy 188.60 Buy 210.49 Buy
9.68 (%) 112.23 Sell 117.72 Sell 124.00 Sell 131.28 Sell 139.81 Sell 149.93 Sell 162.15 Buy 177.17 Buy 196.12 Buy
9.18 (%) 108.61 Sell 113.66 Sell 119.42 Sell 126.06 Sell 133.79 Sell 142.89 Sell 153.79 Buy 167.06 Buy 183.58 Buy
8.68 (%) 105.24 Sell 109.90 Sell 115.20 Sell 121.26 Sell 128.29 Sell 136.52 Sell 146.28 Sell 158.07 Buy 172.57 Buy