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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,581.0018,469.758,697.417,868.5411,907.4713,381.6114,129.6414,919.4915,753.4916,634.1117,563.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,578.955,188.15-4,140.841,099.243,278.136,548.962,732.672,885.433,046.733,217.043,396.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,652.28639.05-8,743.50-3,201.71-1,001.422,294.95-2,609.75-2,755.63-2,909.67-3,072.32-3,244.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,926.664,549.104,602.674,300.954,279.544,254.015,342.425,641.065,956.396,289.366,640.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,697.747,369.43939.323,183.614,553.421,295.343,872.944,089.434,318.034,559.414,814.28
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,722.272,526.662,469.191,727.931,828.992,025.982,666.262,815.312,972.683,138.863,314.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,530.063,682.872,850.141,616.991,894.482,003.233,022.333,191.283,369.673,558.043,756.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,153.44-4,539.87-4,652.24-1,148.81-1,022.85-5,766.14-4,555.40-4,810.04-5,078.93-5,362.84-5,662.62
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.92
Diluted Shares Outstanding 504.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.67
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.75
Total Debt 15,470.00
Total Equity 36,751.68
Total Capital 52,221.68
Debt Weighting 29.62
Equity Weighting 70.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,581.0018,469.758,697.417,868.5411,907.4713,381.6114,129.6414,919.4915,753.4916,634.1117,563.96
EBITDA 6,578.955,188.15-4,140.841,099.243,278.136,548.962,732.672,885.433,046.733,217.043,396.87
EBIT 2,652.28639.05-8,743.50-3,201.71-1,001.422,294.95-2,609.75-2,755.63-2,909.67-3,072.32-3,244.06
Tax Rate 59.26%-1,215.79%30.07%24.95%76.41%54.38%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%
EBIAT 1,080.618,408.60-6,114.70-2,402.85-236.241,047.03-6,832.00-7,213.91-7,617.17-8,042.97-8,492.57
Depreciation 3,926.664,549.104,602.674,300.954,279.544,254.015,342.425,641.065,956.396,289.366,640.93
Accounts Receivable -195.6157.47741.26-101.05-196.99-640.29-149.04-157.38-166.17-175.46
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -152.81-832.73-1,233.15277.49108.751,019.10168.95178.39188.36198.89
Capital Expenditure --2,613.57112.38-3,503.44-125.964,743.29-1,210.74254.65268.88283.91299.78
UFCF 5,007.2710,692.54-2,174.91-2,097.234,093.799,956.09-2,321.51-1,298.30-1,370.88-1,447.51-1,528.42
WACC
PV UFCF -2,077.23-1,039.45-982.06-927.84-876.62
SUM PV UFCF 14,566.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,589.56
Terminal Value -20,484.03
Present Value of Terminal Value -11,748.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,818.06
Net Debt 14,174.66
Equity Value -11,356.60
Shares Outstanding 504.00
Equity Value Per Share -22.53