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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (APC)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,581.0018,469.758,697.417,868.5411,907.4713,381.6114,129.6414,919.4915,753.4916,634.1117,563.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,578.955,188.15-4,140.841,099.243,278.136,548.962,003.582,115.582,233.842,358.722,490.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,652.28639.05-8,743.50-3,201.71-1,001.422,294.95-3,646.86-3,850.72-4,065.98-4,293.26-4,533.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,926.664,549.104,602.674,300.954,279.544,254.015,650.445,966.306,299.826,651.987,023.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,697.747,369.43939.323,183.614,553.421,295.343,929.454,149.114,381.054,625.954,884.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,722.272,526.662,469.191,727.931,828.992,025.982,671.922,821.282,978.993,145.513,321.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,530.063,682.872,850.141,616.991,894.482,003.232,943.203,107.733,281.453,464.893,658.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,153.44-4,539.87-4,652.24-1,148.81-1,022.85-5,766.14-4,079.23-4,307.26-4,548.03-4,802.27-5,070.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.92
Diluted Shares Outstanding 504.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.67
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.75
Total Debt 15,470.00
Total Equity 36,751.68
Total Capital 52,221.68
Debt Weighting 29.62
Equity Weighting 70.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,581.0018,469.758,697.417,868.5411,907.4713,381.6114,129.6414,919.4915,753.4916,634.1117,563.96
EBITDA 6,578.955,188.15-4,140.841,099.243,278.136,548.962,003.582,115.582,233.842,358.722,490.57
EBIT 2,652.28639.05-8,743.50-3,201.71-1,001.422,294.95-3,646.86-3,850.72-4,065.98-4,293.26-4,533.26
Tax Rate 59.26%-1,215.79%30.07%24.95%76.41%54.38%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%-161.79%
EBIAT 1,080.618,408.60-6,114.70-2,402.85-236.241,047.03-9,547.05-10,080.73-10,644.24-11,239.25-11,867.53
Depreciation 3,926.664,549.104,602.674,300.954,279.544,254.015,650.445,966.306,299.826,651.987,023.83
Accounts Receivable -195.6157.47741.26-101.05-196.99-645.94-149.36-157.71-166.53-175.83
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -152.81-832.73-1,233.15277.49108.75939.98164.53173.72183.43193.69
Capital Expenditure --2,613.57112.38-3,503.44-125.964,743.29-1,686.91228.03240.78254.24268.45
UFCF 5,007.2710,692.54-2,174.91-2,097.234,093.799,956.09-5,289.47-3,871.23-4,087.63-4,316.13-4,557.40
WACC
PV UFCF -4,732.89-3,099.39-2,928.28-2,766.62-2,613.88
SUM PV UFCF 9,312.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4,739.70
Terminal Value -61,078.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -35,031.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -25,718.77
Net Debt 14,174.66
Equity Value -39,893.43
Shares Outstanding 504.00
Equity Value Per Share -79.15

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
13.76 (%) -49.25 Sell -52.80 Sell -56.95 Sell -61.87 Sell -67.81 Sell -75.09 Sell -84.26 Sell -96.14 Sell -112.14 Sell
13.26 (%) -47.00 Sell -50.24 Sell -54.00 Sell -58.43 Sell -63.73 Sell -70.17 Sell -78.17 Sell -88.37 Sell -101.83 Sell
12.76 (%) -44.93 Sell -47.89 Sell -51.31 Sell -55.31 Sell -60.06 Sell -65.78 Sell -72.81 Sell -81.65 Sell -93.10 Sell
12.26 (%) -43.01 Sell -45.73 Sell -48.85 Sell -52.48 Sell -56.75 Sell -61.86 Sell -68.07 Sell -75.78 Sell -85.63 Sell
11.76 (%) -41.24 Sell -43.73 Sell -46.58 Sell -49.89 Sell -53.75 Sell -58.33 Sell -63.85 Sell -70.63 Sell -79.15 Sell
11.26 (%) -39.59 Sell -41.89 Sell -44.50 Sell -47.51 Sell -51.02 Sell -55.14 Sell -60.07 Sell -66.06 Sell -73.50 Sell
10.76 (%) -38.06 Sell -40.18 Sell -42.58 Sell -45.34 Sell -48.52 Sell -52.25 Sell -56.67 Sell -61.99 Sell -68.54 Sell
10.26 (%) -36.63 Sell -38.59 Sell -40.81 Sell -43.33 Sell -46.24 Sell -49.62 Sell -53.60 Sell -58.35 Sell -64.14 Sell
9.76 (%) -35.30 Sell -37.12 Sell -39.16 Sell -41.48 Sell -44.14 Sell -47.21 Sell -50.81 Sell -55.08 Sell -60.22 Sell