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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,385.0015,878.7016,559.9019,426.4220,774.6122,559.1524,095.4325,736.3327,488.9729,360.9731,360.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,637.472,823.232,386.286,247.545,951.936,578.255,797.366,192.166,613.857,064.257,545.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,873.932,356.402,010.375,864.845,162.495,942.085,055.225,399.485,767.196,159.936,579.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 763.54466.83375.91382.70789.44636.17742.14792.68846.66904.32965.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,525.547,434.414,270.806,350.506,812.008,883.798,235.828,796.689,395.7310,035.5810,719.00
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,360.563,390.104,298.955,542.366,300.945,964.646,149.156,567.917,015.197,492.928,003.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,497.591,559.291,220.461,241.351,165.461,195.641,751.741,871.031,998.452,134.542,279.90
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,559.342,486.601,564.911,664.842,247.811,892.712,751.702,939.093,139.243,353.023,581.36
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -537.43-525.59-819.72-1,214.15-1,055.35-952.00-1,086.70-1,160.71-1,239.75-1,324.18-1,414.36
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.94
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,632.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.19
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.81
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.66
Total Debt 5,646.00
Total Equity 97,833.99
Total Capital 103,479.99
Debt Weighting 5.46
Equity Weighting 94.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,385.0015,878.7016,559.9019,426.4220,774.6122,559.1524,095.4325,736.3327,488.9729,360.9731,360.45
EBITDA 3,637.472,823.232,386.286,247.545,951.936,578.255,797.366,192.166,613.857,064.257,545.33
EBIT 2,873.932,356.402,010.375,864.845,162.495,942.085,055.225,399.485,767.196,159.936,579.42
Tax Rate 10.82%14.94%22.18%24.01%80.50%17.19%28.27%28.27%28.27%28.27%28.27%
EBIAT 2,562.942,004.341,564.514,456.881,006.904,920.893,626.043,872.984,136.734,418.444,719.33
Depreciation 763.54466.83375.91382.70789.44636.17742.14792.68846.66904.32965.90
Accounts Receivable --29.54-908.85-1,243.41-758.58336.30-184.51-418.76-447.27-477.73-510.27
Inventories --61.70338.82-20.8875.89-30.18-556.10-119.29-127.42-136.09-145.36
Accounts Payable --72.73-921.6999.93582.97-355.10858.99187.39200.15213.78228.34
Capital Expenditure --11.84294.13394.44-158.80-103.35134.7174.0079.0484.4390.18
UFCF 3,326.482,295.36742.834,069.651,537.815,404.734,621.264,389.004,687.895,007.145,348.12
WACC
PV UFCF 4,262.373,733.763,678.323,623.703,569.88
SUM PV UFCF 24,519.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,562.05
Terminal Value 125,838.14
Present Value of Terminal Value 83,997.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 108,516.56
Net Debt -3,237.79
Equity Value 111,754.35
Shares Outstanding 1,632.20
Equity Value Per Share 68.47