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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,385.0015,878.7016,559.9019,426.4220,774.6122,559.1524,095.4325,736.3327,488.9729,360.9731,360.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,637.472,823.232,386.286,247.545,951.936,578.255,886.516,287.386,715.567,172.897,661.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,873.932,356.402,010.375,864.845,162.495,942.085,221.485,577.065,956.866,362.526,795.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 763.54466.83375.91382.70789.44636.17665.03710.32758.70810.36865.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,525.547,434.414,270.806,350.506,812.008,883.798,551.479,133.829,755.8410,420.2111,129.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,360.563,390.104,298.955,542.366,300.945,964.646,390.116,825.277,290.087,786.538,316.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,497.591,559.291,220.461,241.351,165.461,195.641,662.581,775.811,896.742,025.912,163.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,559.342,486.601,564.911,664.842,247.811,892.712,549.302,722.902,908.333,106.393,317.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -537.43-525.59-819.72-1,214.15-1,055.35-952.00-1,146.94-1,225.05-1,308.48-1,397.58-1,492.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 46.98
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.19
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.81
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.66
Total Debt 5,646.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 5,646.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,385.0015,878.7016,559.9019,426.4220,774.6122,559.1524,095.4325,736.3327,488.9729,360.9731,360.45
EBITDA 3,637.472,823.232,386.286,247.545,951.936,578.255,886.516,287.386,715.567,172.897,661.36
EBIT 2,873.932,356.402,010.375,864.845,162.495,942.085,221.485,577.065,956.866,362.526,795.81
Tax Rate 10.82%14.94%22.18%24.01%80.50%17.19%28.27%28.27%28.27%28.27%28.27%
EBIAT 2,562.942,004.341,564.514,456.881,006.904,920.893,745.304,000.354,272.784,563.754,874.54
Depreciation 763.54466.83375.91382.70789.44636.17665.03710.32758.70810.36865.55
Accounts Receivable --29.54-908.85-1,243.41-758.58336.30-425.47-435.17-464.80-496.45-530.26
Inventories --61.70338.82-20.8875.89-30.18-466.95-113.22-120.93-129.17-137.96
Accounts Payable --72.73-921.6999.93582.97-355.10656.58173.61185.43198.06211.55
Capital Expenditure --11.84294.13394.44-158.80-103.35194.9578.1183.4389.1195.18
UFCF 3,326.482,295.36742.834,069.651,537.815,404.734,369.444,414.004,714.595,035.665,378.59
WACC
PV UFCF 4,195.744,070.034,174.384,281.404,391.17
SUM PV UFCF 31,472.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,593.73
Terminal Value 3,995,520.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,262,011.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,293,484.31
Net Debt -3,237.79
Equity Value 3,296,722.11
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
6.14 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.64 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.14 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
4.64 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
4.14 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
3.64 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
3.14 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.64 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.14 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy