Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Healthcare
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 16,385.00 | 15,878.70 | 16,559.90 | 19,426.42 | 20,774.61 | 22,559.15 | 24,095.43 | 25,736.33 | 27,488.97 | 29,360.97 | 31,360.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3,637.47 | 2,823.23 | 2,386.28 | 6,247.54 | 5,951.93 | 6,578.25 | 5,886.51 | 6,287.38 | 6,715.56 | 7,172.89 | 7,661.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 2,873.93 | 2,356.40 | 2,010.37 | 5,864.84 | 5,162.49 | 5,942.08 | 5,221.48 | 5,577.06 | 5,956.86 | 6,362.52 | 6,795.81 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 763.54 | 466.83 | 375.91 | 382.70 | 789.44 | 636.17 | 665.03 | 710.32 | 758.70 | 810.36 | 865.55 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4,525.54 | 7,434.41 | 4,270.80 | 6,350.50 | 6,812.00 | 8,883.79 | 8,551.47 | 9,133.82 | 9,755.84 | 10,420.21 | 11,129.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3,360.56 | 3,390.10 | 4,298.95 | 5,542.36 | 6,300.94 | 5,964.64 | 6,390.11 | 6,825.27 | 7,290.08 | 7,786.53 | 8,316.79 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,497.59 | 1,559.29 | 1,220.46 | 1,241.35 | 1,165.46 | 1,195.64 | 1,662.58 | 1,775.81 | 1,896.74 | 2,025.91 | 2,163.87 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 2,559.34 | 2,486.60 | 1,564.91 | 1,664.84 | 2,247.81 | 1,892.71 | 2,549.30 | 2,722.90 | 2,908.33 | 3,106.39 | 3,317.94 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -537.43 | -525.59 | -819.72 | -1,214.15 | -1,055.35 | -952.00 | -1,146.94 | -1,225.05 | -1,308.48 | -1,397.58 | -1,492.76 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 46.98 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | - |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.81 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.66 |
| Total Debt | 5,646.00 |
| Total Equity | - |
| Total Capital | 5,646.00 |
| Debt Weighting | 100.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 16,385.00 | 15,878.70 | 16,559.90 | 19,426.42 | 20,774.61 | 22,559.15 | 24,095.43 | 25,736.33 | 27,488.97 | 29,360.97 | 31,360.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,637.47 | 2,823.23 | 2,386.28 | 6,247.54 | 5,951.93 | 6,578.25 | 5,886.51 | 6,287.38 | 6,715.56 | 7,172.89 | 7,661.36 |
| EBIT | 2,873.93 | 2,356.40 | 2,010.37 | 5,864.84 | 5,162.49 | 5,942.08 | 5,221.48 | 5,577.06 | 5,956.86 | 6,362.52 | 6,795.81 |
| Tax Rate | 10.82% | 14.94% | 22.18% | 24.01% | 80.50% | 17.19% | 28.27% | 28.27% | 28.27% | 28.27% | 28.27% |
| EBIAT | 2,562.94 | 2,004.34 | 1,564.51 | 4,456.88 | 1,006.90 | 4,920.89 | 3,745.30 | 4,000.35 | 4,272.78 | 4,563.75 | 4,874.54 |
| Depreciation | 763.54 | 466.83 | 375.91 | 382.70 | 789.44 | 636.17 | 665.03 | 710.32 | 758.70 | 810.36 | 865.55 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -29.54 | -908.85 | -1,243.41 | -758.58 | 336.30 | -425.47 | -435.17 | -464.80 | -496.45 | -530.26 |
| Inventories | - | -61.70 | 338.82 | -20.88 | 75.89 | -30.18 | -466.95 | -113.22 | -120.93 | -129.17 | -137.96 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -72.73 | -921.69 | 99.93 | 582.97 | -355.10 | 656.58 | 173.61 | 185.43 | 198.06 | 211.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -11.84 | 294.13 | 394.44 | -158.80 | -103.35 | 194.95 | 78.11 | 83.43 | 89.11 | 95.18 |
| UFCF | 3,326.48 | 2,295.36 | 742.83 | 4,069.65 | 1,537.81 | 5,404.73 | 4,369.44 | 4,414.00 | 4,714.59 | 5,035.66 | 5,378.59 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 4,195.74 | 4,070.03 | 4,174.38 | 4,281.40 | 4,391.17 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 31,472.67 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.14 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 5,593.73 |
| Terminal Value | 3,995,520.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,262,011.64 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 3,293,484.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -3,237.79 |
| Equity Value | 3,296,722.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | - |
| Equity Value Per Share | Infinity |
Results Unlevered DCF
| Wacc / Long-term Growth | -4 (%) | -3 (%) | -2 (%) | -1 (%) | 0 (%) | 1 (%) | 2 (%) | 3 (%) | 4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.14 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell |
| 5.64 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell | -Infinity Sell |
| 5.14 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell |
| 4.64 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | -Infinity Sell |
| 4.14 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 3.64 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 3.14 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 2.64 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |
| 2.14 (%) | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy | Infinity Buy |