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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Carnival Corporation

Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 15,456.0015,884.1315,714.1716,389.8817,510.9518,882.0619,661.8820,473.9221,319.4922,199.9923,116.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,958.283,149.823,642.544,789.124,710.455,417.264,815.205,014.065,221.145,436.785,661.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,367.861,512.172,016.133,051.802,864.793,400.662,758.562,872.492,991.123,114.663,243.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,590.421,637.651,626.421,737.331,845.652,016.602,056.632,141.572,230.022,322.122,418.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 462.13330.391,395.42603.15395.75981.87821.87855.81891.15927.96966.28
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 786.71486.05303.28298.30311.69358.76509.24530.27552.17574.98598.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 374.04349.45330.00321.24386.99449.39434.53452.47471.16490.62510.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 638.33625.83627.00712.96761.73730.74808.10841.48876.23912.42950.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,078.83-2,541.46-2,294.27-3,035.41-2,943.59-3,359.12-3,185.23-3,316.78-3,453.76-3,596.40-3,744.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 45.13
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.68
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.03
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.30
Total Debt 7,897.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 7,897.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 15,456.0015,884.1315,714.1716,389.8817,510.9518,882.0619,661.8820,473.9221,319.4922,199.9923,116.85
EBITDA 2,958.283,149.823,642.544,789.124,710.455,417.264,815.205,014.065,221.145,436.785,661.32
EBIT 1,367.861,512.172,016.133,051.802,864.793,400.662,758.562,872.492,991.123,114.663,243.29
Tax Rate -0.57%0.73%2.33%1.73%2.25%1.68%1.36%1.36%1.36%1.36%1.36%
EBIAT 1,375.681,501.061,969.062,998.922,800.323,343.382,721.022,833.402,950.423,072.273,199.16
Depreciation 1,590.421,637.651,626.421,737.331,845.652,016.602,056.632,141.572,230.022,322.122,418.02
Accounts Receivable -300.66182.774.99-13.40-47.06-150.48-21.03-21.90-22.80-23.75
Inventories -24.5819.458.76-65.75-62.4014.87-17.95-18.69-19.46-20.26
Accounts Payable --12.501.1685.9648.77-30.9977.3733.3734.7536.1937.68
Capital Expenditure -462.63-247.19741.14-91.82415.53-173.89131.55136.98142.64148.53
UFCF 2,966.103,914.083,551.675,577.094,523.775,635.054,545.515,100.925,311.595,530.965,759.39
WACC
PV UFCF 4,332.364,633.744,598.854,564.234,529.86
SUM PV UFCF 38,828.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,989.76
Terminal Value 651,060.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 512,071.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 550,899.38
Net Debt 6,915.13
Equity Value 543,984.24
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity