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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Citizens Financial Group Inc.

Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,211.004,659.894,521.964,885.985,385.815,801.606,192.636,610.017,055.527,531.078,038.66
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -3,063.921,653.801,726.942,035.012,384.842,643.211,366.711,458.831,557.151,662.111,774.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -3,467.761,267.961,255.751,520.031,897.962,154.13785.84838.81895.35955.691,020.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 403.83385.84471.19514.98486.88489.07580.87620.02661.81706.41754.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --3,797.094,582.073,416.224,369.764,899.615,229.845,582.335,958.586,360.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 445.94---5.92-331.31353.64377.47402.91430.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -343.20-308.02-283.98-300.00-412.01-468.77-442.77-472.62-504.47-538.47-574.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.44
Diluted Shares Outstanding 478.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.45
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.02
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.81
Total Debt 14,433.00
Total Equity 18,405.92
Total Capital 32,838.92
Debt Weighting 43.95
Equity Weighting 56.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,211.004,659.894,521.964,885.985,385.815,801.606,192.636,610.017,055.527,531.078,038.66
EBITDA -3,063.921,653.801,726.942,035.012,384.842,643.211,366.711,458.831,557.151,662.111,774.13
EBIT -3,467.761,267.961,255.751,520.031,897.962,154.13785.84838.81895.35955.691,020.11
Tax Rate 1.21%31.78%33.68%32.17%13.70%21.45%22.33%22.33%22.33%22.33%22.33%
EBIAT -3,425.76864.97832.831,031.021,637.971,692.10610.35651.49695.40742.27792.30
Depreciation 403.83385.84471.19514.98486.88489.07580.87620.02661.81706.41754.03
Accounts Receivable -445.94---5.92--22.33-23.84-25.44-27.16
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure --35.18-24.0416.02112.0256.75-26.0029.8431.8534.0036.29
UFCF -3,021.931,661.581,279.981,562.022,236.862,243.861,165.221,279.021,365.231,457.241,555.46
WACC
PV UFCF 1,064.421,067.301,040.691,014.73989.43
SUM PV UFCF 6,424.08

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,617.68
Terminal Value 29,573.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,811.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 25,235.87
Net Debt 10,063.24
Equity Value 15,172.63
Shares Outstanding 478.82
Equity Value Per Share 31.69