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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


CSX Corporation

CSX Corporation (CSX)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,026.0012,669.3911,811.6711,069.9011,408.6412,250.6012,317.9712,385.7212,453.8512,522.3412,591.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,587.924,739.624,890.034,620.585,002.696,273.535,210.505,239.165,267.985,296.955,326.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,483.933,589.243,681.703,319.863,687.274,943.123,924.513,946.093,967.803,989.624,011.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,103.991,150.381,208.331,300.711,315.421,330.411,286.001,293.071,300.181,307.331,314.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,078.73961.611,437.481,019.54418.701,111.131,040.871,046.591,052.351,058.141,063.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,052.271,128.84981.55937.62969.731,009.451,050.721,056.501,062.311,068.161,074.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 252.55272.39349.63407.37371.92263.39335.05336.89338.74340.61342.48
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 957.27845.05764.22805.89846.52949.42894.28899.20904.15909.12914.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,259.69-2,386.91-2,415.49-2,202.91-1,942.89-1,425.97-2,190.14-2,202.18-2,214.29-2,226.47-2,238.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 72.23
Diluted Shares Outstanding 857.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.12
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.11
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.68
Total Debt 14,739.00
Total Equity 61,901.11
Total Capital 76,640.11
Debt Weighting 19.23
Equity Weighting 80.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,026.0012,669.3911,811.6711,069.9011,408.6412,250.6012,317.9712,385.7212,453.8512,522.3412,591.21
EBITDA 4,587.924,739.624,890.034,620.585,002.696,273.535,210.505,239.165,267.985,296.955,326.08
EBIT 3,483.933,589.243,681.703,319.863,687.274,943.123,924.513,946.093,967.803,989.624,011.56
Tax Rate 36.21%36.70%37.28%37.47%-74.12%23.12%16.11%16.11%16.11%16.11%16.11%
EBIAT 2,222.472,272.162,308.982,075.976,420.453,800.363,292.343,310.453,328.653,346.963,365.37
Depreciation 1,103.991,150.381,208.331,300.711,315.421,330.411,286.001,293.071,300.181,307.331,314.52
Accounts Receivable --76.57147.2943.93-32.11-39.71-41.27-5.78-5.81-5.84-5.87
Inventories --19.85-77.23-57.7535.45108.53-71.66-1.84-1.85-1.86-1.87
Accounts Payable --112.22-80.8341.6740.63102.90-55.144.924.954.975.00
Capital Expenditure -127.2328.57-212.58-260.02-516.92764.1712.0512.1112.1812.25
UFCF 3,326.453,341.143,535.123,191.977,519.824,785.585,174.434,612.864,638.234,663.744,689.39
WACC
PV UFCF 4,662.493,745.253,393.273,074.362,785.43
SUM PV UFCF 26,880.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,876.96
Terminal Value 69,870.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 41,502.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 68,383.02
Net Debt 13,627.87
Equity Value 54,755.15
Shares Outstanding 857.00
Equity Value Per Share 63.89