Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CSX Corporation (CSX)
Industrials
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 12,026.00 | 12,669.39 | 11,811.67 | 11,069.90 | 11,408.64 | 12,250.60 | 12,317.97 | 12,385.72 | 12,453.85 | 12,522.34 | 12,591.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,587.92 | 4,739.62 | 4,890.03 | 4,620.58 | 5,002.69 | 6,273.53 | 5,210.50 | 5,239.16 | 5,267.98 | 5,296.95 | 5,326.08 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 3,483.93 | 3,589.24 | 3,681.70 | 3,319.86 | 3,687.27 | 4,943.12 | 3,924.51 | 3,946.09 | 3,967.80 | 3,989.62 | 4,011.56 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,103.99 | 1,150.38 | 1,208.33 | 1,300.71 | 1,315.42 | 1,330.41 | 1,286.00 | 1,293.07 | 1,300.18 | 1,307.33 | 1,314.52 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,078.73 | 961.61 | 1,437.48 | 1,019.54 | 418.70 | 1,111.13 | 1,040.87 | 1,046.59 | 1,052.35 | 1,058.14 | 1,063.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,052.27 | 1,128.84 | 981.55 | 937.62 | 969.73 | 1,009.45 | 1,050.72 | 1,056.50 | 1,062.31 | 1,068.16 | 1,074.03 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 252.55 | 272.39 | 349.63 | 407.37 | 371.92 | 263.39 | 335.05 | 336.89 | 338.74 | 340.61 | 342.48 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 957.27 | 845.05 | 764.22 | 805.89 | 846.52 | 949.42 | 894.28 | 899.20 | 904.15 | 909.12 | 914.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,259.69 | -2,386.91 | -2,415.49 | -2,202.91 | -1,942.89 | -1,425.97 | -2,190.14 | -2,202.18 | -2,214.29 | -2,226.47 | -2,238.72 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 72.23 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 857.00 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.12 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.11 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.68 |
| Total Debt | 14,739.00 |
| Total Equity | 61,901.11 |
| Total Capital | 76,640.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 19.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 80.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 12,026.00 | 12,669.39 | 11,811.67 | 11,069.90 | 11,408.64 | 12,250.60 | 12,317.97 | 12,385.72 | 12,453.85 | 12,522.34 | 12,591.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,587.92 | 4,739.62 | 4,890.03 | 4,620.58 | 5,002.69 | 6,273.53 | 5,210.50 | 5,239.16 | 5,267.98 | 5,296.95 | 5,326.08 |
| EBIT | 3,483.93 | 3,589.24 | 3,681.70 | 3,319.86 | 3,687.27 | 4,943.12 | 3,924.51 | 3,946.09 | 3,967.80 | 3,989.62 | 4,011.56 |
| Tax Rate | 36.21% | 36.70% | 37.28% | 37.47% | -74.12% | 23.12% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% |
| EBIAT | 2,222.47 | 2,272.16 | 2,308.98 | 2,075.97 | 6,420.45 | 3,800.36 | 3,292.34 | 3,310.45 | 3,328.65 | 3,346.96 | 3,365.37 |
| Depreciation | 1,103.99 | 1,150.38 | 1,208.33 | 1,300.71 | 1,315.42 | 1,330.41 | 1,286.00 | 1,293.07 | 1,300.18 | 1,307.33 | 1,314.52 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -76.57 | 147.29 | 43.93 | -32.11 | -39.71 | -41.27 | -5.78 | -5.81 | -5.84 | -5.87 |
| Inventories | - | -19.85 | -77.23 | -57.75 | 35.45 | 108.53 | -71.66 | -1.84 | -1.85 | -1.86 | -1.87 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -112.22 | -80.83 | 41.67 | 40.63 | 102.90 | -55.14 | 4.92 | 4.95 | 4.97 | 5.00 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 127.23 | 28.57 | -212.58 | -260.02 | -516.92 | 764.17 | 12.05 | 12.11 | 12.18 | 12.25 |
| UFCF | 3,326.45 | 3,341.14 | 3,535.12 | 3,191.97 | 7,519.82 | 4,785.58 | 5,174.43 | 4,612.86 | 4,638.23 | 4,663.74 | 4,689.39 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 4,662.49 | 3,745.25 | 3,393.27 | 3,074.36 | 2,785.43 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 26,880.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.98 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,876.96 |
| Terminal Value | 69,870.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 41,502.15 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 68,383.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,627.87 |
| Equity Value | 54,755.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 857.00 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 63.89 |