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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


CSX Corporation

CSX Corporation (CSX)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,026.0012,669.3911,811.6711,069.9011,408.6412,250.6012,317.9712,385.7212,453.8512,522.3412,591.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,587.924,739.624,890.034,620.585,002.696,273.535,311.515,340.725,370.105,399.635,429.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,483.933,589.243,681.703,319.863,687.274,943.123,994.724,016.694,038.784,061.004,083.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,103.991,150.381,208.331,300.711,315.421,330.411,316.791,324.031,331.321,338.641,346.00
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,078.73961.611,437.481,019.54418.701,111.131,027.321,032.971,038.651,044.361,050.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,052.271,128.84981.55937.62969.731,009.451,045.801,051.551,057.331,063.151,068.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 252.55272.39349.63407.37371.92263.39349.83351.75353.69355.63357.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 957.27845.05764.22805.89846.52949.42877.04881.86886.71891.59896.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,259.69-2,386.91-2,415.49-2,202.91-1,942.89-1,425.97-2,164.27-2,176.17-2,188.14-2,200.18-2,212.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 64.64
Diluted Shares Outstanding 861.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.12
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.11
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.68
Total Debt 14,739.00
Total Equity 55,655.04
Total Capital 70,394.04
Debt Weighting 20.94
Equity Weighting 79.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,026.0012,669.3911,811.6711,069.9011,408.6412,250.6012,317.9712,385.7212,453.8512,522.3412,591.21
EBITDA 4,587.924,739.624,890.034,620.585,002.696,273.535,311.515,340.725,370.105,399.635,429.33
EBIT 3,483.933,589.243,681.703,319.863,687.274,943.123,994.724,016.694,038.784,061.004,083.33
Tax Rate 36.21%36.70%37.28%37.47%-74.12%23.12%16.11%16.11%16.11%16.11%16.11%
EBIAT 2,222.472,272.162,308.982,075.976,420.453,800.363,351.243,369.673,388.213,406.843,425.58
Depreciation 1,103.991,150.381,208.331,300.711,315.421,330.411,316.791,324.031,331.321,338.641,346.00
Accounts Receivable --76.57147.2943.93-32.11-39.71-36.35-5.75-5.78-5.82-5.85
Inventories --19.85-77.23-57.7535.45108.53-86.44-1.92-1.93-1.95-1.96
Accounts Payable --112.22-80.8341.6740.63102.90-72.384.824.854.884.90
Capital Expenditure -127.2328.57-212.58-260.02-516.92738.3011.9011.9712.0312.10
UFCF 3,326.453,341.143,535.123,191.977,519.824,785.585,211.164,702.764,728.624,754.634,780.78
WACC
PV UFCF 4,701.943,828.583,473.463,151.282,858.99
SUM PV UFCF 27,233.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,972.01
Terminal Value 72,796.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,533.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 70,766.74
Net Debt 13,627.87
Equity Value 57,138.87
Shares Outstanding 861.00
Equity Value Per Share 66.36

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.83 (%) 43.02 Sell 45.62 Sell 48.71 Sell 52.43 Sell 56.99 Sell 62.72 Sell 70.12 Buy 80.06 Buy 94.12 Buy
12.33 (%) 41.40 Sell 43.77 Sell 46.55 Sell 49.87 Sell 53.90 Sell 58.90 Sell 65.27 Buy 73.64 Buy 85.16 Buy
11.83 (%) 39.92 Sell 42.07 Sell 44.58 Sell 47.56 Sell 51.15 Sell 55.54 Sell 61.06 Sell 68.20 Buy 77.78 Buy
11.33 (%) 38.56 Sell 40.52 Sell 42.80 Sell 45.48 Sell 48.68 Sell 52.57 Sell 57.39 Sell 63.53 Sell 71.60 Buy
10.83 (%) 37.30 Sell 39.09 Sell 41.17 Sell 43.59 Sell 46.46 Sell 49.92 Sell 54.16 Sell 59.48 Sell 66.36 Buy
10.33 (%) 36.13 Sell 37.78 Sell 39.67 Sell 41.87 Sell 44.46 Sell 47.55 Sell 51.30 Sell 55.95 Sell 61.87 Sell
9.83 (%) 35.05 Sell 36.57 Sell 38.30 Sell 40.30 Sell 42.64 Sell 45.41 Sell 48.74 Sell 52.83 Sell 57.97 Sell
9.33 (%) 34.05 Sell 35.45 Sell 37.03 Sell 38.86 Sell 40.98 Sell 43.48 Sell 46.46 Sell 50.08 Sell 54.56 Sell
8.83 (%) 33.12 Sell 34.41 Sell 35.87 Sell 37.54 Sell 39.47 Sell 41.73 Sell 44.40 Sell 47.62 Sell 51.57 Sell