Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
CSX Corporation (CSX)
Industrials
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 12,026.00 | 12,669.39 | 11,811.67 | 11,069.90 | 11,408.64 | 12,250.60 | 12,317.97 | 12,385.72 | 12,453.85 | 12,522.34 | 12,591.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,587.92 | 4,739.62 | 4,890.03 | 4,620.58 | 5,002.69 | 6,273.53 | 5,311.51 | 5,340.72 | 5,370.10 | 5,399.63 | 5,429.33 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 3,483.93 | 3,589.24 | 3,681.70 | 3,319.86 | 3,687.27 | 4,943.12 | 3,994.72 | 4,016.69 | 4,038.78 | 4,061.00 | 4,083.33 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1,103.99 | 1,150.38 | 1,208.33 | 1,300.71 | 1,315.42 | 1,330.41 | 1,316.79 | 1,324.03 | 1,331.32 | 1,338.64 | 1,346.00 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,078.73 | 961.61 | 1,437.48 | 1,019.54 | 418.70 | 1,111.13 | 1,027.32 | 1,032.97 | 1,038.65 | 1,044.36 | 1,050.11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,052.27 | 1,128.84 | 981.55 | 937.62 | 969.73 | 1,009.45 | 1,045.80 | 1,051.55 | 1,057.33 | 1,063.15 | 1,068.99 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 252.55 | 272.39 | 349.63 | 407.37 | 371.92 | 263.39 | 349.83 | 351.75 | 353.69 | 355.63 | 357.59 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 957.27 | 845.05 | 764.22 | 805.89 | 846.52 | 949.42 | 877.04 | 881.86 | 886.71 | 891.59 | 896.49 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,259.69 | -2,386.91 | -2,415.49 | -2,202.91 | -1,942.89 | -1,425.97 | -2,164.27 | -2,176.17 | -2,188.14 | -2,200.18 | -2,212.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 64.64 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 861.00 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.12 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.11 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.68 |
| Total Debt | 14,739.00 |
| Total Equity | 55,655.04 |
| Total Capital | 70,394.04 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.94 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.06 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 12,026.00 | 12,669.39 | 11,811.67 | 11,069.90 | 11,408.64 | 12,250.60 | 12,317.97 | 12,385.72 | 12,453.85 | 12,522.34 | 12,591.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,587.92 | 4,739.62 | 4,890.03 | 4,620.58 | 5,002.69 | 6,273.53 | 5,311.51 | 5,340.72 | 5,370.10 | 5,399.63 | 5,429.33 |
| EBIT | 3,483.93 | 3,589.24 | 3,681.70 | 3,319.86 | 3,687.27 | 4,943.12 | 3,994.72 | 4,016.69 | 4,038.78 | 4,061.00 | 4,083.33 |
| Tax Rate | 36.21% | 36.70% | 37.28% | 37.47% | -74.12% | 23.12% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% | 16.11% |
| EBIAT | 2,222.47 | 2,272.16 | 2,308.98 | 2,075.97 | 6,420.45 | 3,800.36 | 3,351.24 | 3,369.67 | 3,388.21 | 3,406.84 | 3,425.58 |
| Depreciation | 1,103.99 | 1,150.38 | 1,208.33 | 1,300.71 | 1,315.42 | 1,330.41 | 1,316.79 | 1,324.03 | 1,331.32 | 1,338.64 | 1,346.00 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -76.57 | 147.29 | 43.93 | -32.11 | -39.71 | -36.35 | -5.75 | -5.78 | -5.82 | -5.85 |
| Inventories | - | -19.85 | -77.23 | -57.75 | 35.45 | 108.53 | -86.44 | -1.92 | -1.93 | -1.95 | -1.96 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -112.22 | -80.83 | 41.67 | 40.63 | 102.90 | -72.38 | 4.82 | 4.85 | 4.88 | 4.90 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 127.23 | 28.57 | -212.58 | -260.02 | -516.92 | 738.30 | 11.90 | 11.97 | 12.03 | 12.10 |
| UFCF | 3,326.45 | 3,341.14 | 3,535.12 | 3,191.97 | 7,519.82 | 4,785.58 | 5,211.16 | 4,702.76 | 4,728.62 | 4,754.63 | 4,780.78 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 4,701.94 | 3,828.58 | 3,473.46 | 3,151.28 | 2,858.99 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 27,233.12 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.83 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,972.01 |
| Terminal Value | 72,796.65 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 43,533.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 70,766.74 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,627.87 |
| Equity Value | 57,138.87 |
| Shares Outstanding | 861.00 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 66.36 |
Results Unlevered DCF
| Wacc / Long-term Growth | -4 (%) | -3 (%) | -2 (%) | -1 (%) | 0 (%) | 1 (%) | 2 (%) | 3 (%) | 4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.83 (%) | 43.02 Sell | 45.62 Sell | 48.71 Sell | 52.43 Sell | 56.99 Sell | 62.72 Sell | 70.12 Buy | 80.06 Buy | 94.12 Buy |
| 12.33 (%) | 41.40 Sell | 43.77 Sell | 46.55 Sell | 49.87 Sell | 53.90 Sell | 58.90 Sell | 65.27 Buy | 73.64 Buy | 85.16 Buy |
| 11.83 (%) | 39.92 Sell | 42.07 Sell | 44.58 Sell | 47.56 Sell | 51.15 Sell | 55.54 Sell | 61.06 Sell | 68.20 Buy | 77.78 Buy |
| 11.33 (%) | 38.56 Sell | 40.52 Sell | 42.80 Sell | 45.48 Sell | 48.68 Sell | 52.57 Sell | 57.39 Sell | 63.53 Sell | 71.60 Buy |
| 10.83 (%) | 37.30 Sell | 39.09 Sell | 41.17 Sell | 43.59 Sell | 46.46 Sell | 49.92 Sell | 54.16 Sell | 59.48 Sell | 66.36 Buy |
| 10.33 (%) | 36.13 Sell | 37.78 Sell | 39.67 Sell | 41.87 Sell | 44.46 Sell | 47.55 Sell | 51.30 Sell | 55.95 Sell | 61.87 Sell |
| 9.83 (%) | 35.05 Sell | 36.57 Sell | 38.30 Sell | 40.30 Sell | 42.64 Sell | 45.41 Sell | 48.74 Sell | 52.83 Sell | 57.97 Sell |
| 9.33 (%) | 34.05 Sell | 35.45 Sell | 37.03 Sell | 38.86 Sell | 40.98 Sell | 43.48 Sell | 46.46 Sell | 50.08 Sell | 54.56 Sell |
| 8.83 (%) | 33.12 Sell | 34.41 Sell | 35.87 Sell | 37.54 Sell | 39.47 Sell | 41.73 Sell | 44.40 Sell | 47.62 Sell | 51.57 Sell |