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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Ctrip.com International Ltd.

Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 888.021,186.131,678.852,770.944,050.014,480.936,245.978,706.2612,135.6616,915.8923,579.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 240.65114.58544.7937.13788.54573.111,069.931,491.382,078.842,897.694,039.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 222.4586.47505.33-29.37714.42494.25936.901,305.941,820.352,537.383,536.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18.2028.1139.4566.5074.1278.86133.04185.44258.49360.31502.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,897.972,030.424,581.424,937.547,273.429,048.8012,674.3317,666.7424,625.6734,325.7347,846.63
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 255.22378.97717.37865.64807.171,091.111,862.552,596.213,618.855,044.327,031.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 376.52633.041,782.271,578.881,961.422,613.733,806.305,305.597,395.4710,308.5414,369.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -107.45-773.12-98.38-98.37-71.28-97.24-943.14-1,314.65-1,832.48-2,554.30-3,560.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.36
Diluted Shares Outstanding 10.26
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 41.63
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.03
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.77
Total Debt 3,494.36
Total Equity 342.41
Total Capital 3,836.76
Debt Weighting 91.08
Equity Weighting 8.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 888.021,186.131,678.852,770.944,050.014,480.936,245.978,706.2612,135.6616,915.8923,579.06
EBITDA 240.65114.58544.7937.13788.54573.111,069.931,491.382,078.842,897.694,039.09
EBIT 222.4586.47505.33-29.37714.42494.25936.901,305.941,820.352,537.383,536.86
Tax Rate 22.73%35.02%15.79%-51.50%37.35%41.63%16.84%16.84%16.84%16.84%16.84%
EBIAT 171.8856.19425.54-44.50447.55288.51779.141,086.041,513.832,110.132,941.31
Depreciation 18.2028.1139.4566.5074.1278.86133.04185.44258.49360.31502.23
Accounts Receivable --123.75-338.40-148.2758.48-283.94-771.44-733.66-1,022.65-1,425.47-1,986.96
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -256.521,149.23-203.38382.54652.311,192.571,499.302,089.872,913.084,060.54
Capital Expenditure -665.67-674.74-0.01-27.0925.96845.91371.50517.84721.821,006.14
UFCF 190.08882.73601.08-329.66935.59761.692,179.212,408.633,357.394,679.866,523.26
WACC
PV UFCF 2,095.802,227.772,986.434,003.455,366.80
SUM PV UFCF 15,822.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,784.19
Terminal Value -33,920,959.21
Present Value of Terminal Value -27,907,379.56

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -27,891,557.39
Net Debt -5,554.44
Equity Value -27,886,002.95
Shares Outstanding 10.26
Equity Value Per Share -2,716,860.13