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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Chevron Corporation

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 228,848.00211,959.02138,472.83114,461.64141,703.51166,317.41160,263.45154,429.86148,808.62143,391.98138,172.52
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 49,911.7547,923.9325,755.9517,432.5128,808.3240,697.8732,870.0331,673.5730,520.6529,409.7028,339.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 35,723.1731,136.784,721.92-2,025.979,465.7921,272.0013,734.5813,234.6412,752.9012,288.6911,841.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 14,188.5816,787.1521,034.0219,458.4819,342.5319,425.8719,135.4618,438.9317,767.7517,121.0016,497.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 16,522.8313,205.0511,327.087,005.054,817.9210,344.949,984.419,620.989,270.788,933.328,608.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 24,463.8519,542.6215,273.5516,574.0518,208.9016,997.6418,286.0617,620.4516,979.0616,361.0315,765.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,384.866,507.146,328.215,414.045,583.125,704.696,025.915,806.565,595.205,391.545,195.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22,816.1518,991.5313,514.9513,987.2114,567.1213,954.0315,914.1615,334.8914,776.7014,238.8213,720.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -37,988.77-35,397.16-29,508.56-14,628.20-8,303.83-11,392.74-21,395.17-20,616.39-19,865.95-19,142.83-18,446.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 116.77
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,910.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.83
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.34
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.60
Total Debt 28,733.00
Total Equity 223,121.12
Total Capital 251,854.12
Debt Weighting 11.41
Equity Weighting 88.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 228,848.00211,959.02138,472.83114,461.64141,703.51166,317.41160,263.45154,429.86148,808.62143,391.98138,172.52
EBITDA 49,911.7547,923.9325,755.9517,432.5128,808.3240,697.8732,870.0331,673.5730,520.6529,409.7028,339.18
EBIT 35,723.1731,136.784,721.92-2,025.979,465.7921,272.0013,734.5813,234.6412,752.9012,288.6911,841.38
Tax Rate 40.04%38.20%2.80%77.67%-0.52%27.83%31.00%31.00%31.00%31.00%31.00%
EBIAT 21,418.3119,243.344,589.84-452.349,515.4715,353.049,476.599,131.658,799.258,478.968,170.33
Depreciation 14,188.5816,787.1521,034.0219,458.4819,342.5319,425.8719,135.4618,438.9317,767.7517,121.0016,497.80
Accounts Receivable -4,921.234,269.07-1,300.49-1,634.861,211.26-1,288.42665.61641.38618.04595.54
Inventories --122.28178.93914.17-169.08-121.57-321.22219.34211.36203.67196.25
Accounts Payable --3,824.62-5,476.58472.26579.91-613.091,960.13-579.28-558.19-537.87-518.29
Capital Expenditure --2,591.61-5,888.60-14,880.36-6,324.373,088.9210,002.43-778.78-750.44-723.12-696.80
UFCF 35,606.8834,413.2118,706.694,211.7221,309.5938,344.4338,964.9727,097.4726,111.1225,160.6724,244.83
WACC
PV UFCF 35,487.2222,476.2619,725.0717,310.6315,191.73
SUM PV UFCF 176,119.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.80
Free cash flow (t + 1) 25,214.62
Terminal Value 434,734.82
Present Value of Terminal Value 272,403.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 448,523.35
Net Debt 18,388.06
Equity Value 430,135.30
Shares Outstanding 1,910.77
Equity Value Per Share 225.11