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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR

Cemex S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR (CX)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,594.4513,559.7012,723.0712,033.4813,087.6114,125.4614,068.9614,012.6813,956.6313,900.8013,845.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,517.822,726.862,204.912,635.332,593.962,224.762,469.102,459.232,449.392,439.592,429.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 432.001,798.021,355.011,863.991,781.221,405.481,544.771,538.591,532.441,526.311,520.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,085.83928.84849.90771.35812.74819.28924.33920.63916.95913.28909.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,163.18854.26886.80560.76698.88309.35783.64780.51777.38774.27771.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,527.762,128.871,890.651,707.551,807.401,806.652,079.392,071.072,062.792,054.542,046.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,301.821,225.801,028.02872.43958.011,083.421,132.551,128.021,123.511,119.011,114.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,086.733,004.831,665.451,945.812,359.702,542.582,546.482,536.302,526.152,516.052,505.98
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -414.48-404.08-517.83-220.21-547.06-593.27-471.31-469.42-467.55-465.68-463.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.76
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,312.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.91
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.45
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.00
Total Debt 9,903.16
Total Equity 8,694.37
Total Capital 18,597.53
Debt Weighting 53.25
Equity Weighting 46.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 14,594.4513,559.7012,723.0712,033.4813,087.6114,125.4614,068.9614,012.6813,956.6313,900.8013,845.20
EBITDA 1,517.822,726.862,204.912,635.332,593.962,224.762,469.102,459.232,449.392,439.592,429.83
EBIT 432.001,798.021,355.011,863.991,781.221,405.481,544.771,538.591,532.441,526.311,520.20
Tax Rate -43.14%78.04%66.35%18.22%3.30%29.91%25.45%25.45%25.45%25.45%25.45%
EBIAT 618.37394.83455.971,524.461,722.39985.081,151.681,147.081,142.491,137.921,133.37
Depreciation 1,085.83928.84849.90771.35812.74819.28924.33920.63916.95913.28909.63
Accounts Receivable -398.89238.23183.10-99.850.75-272.758.328.288.258.22
Inventories -76.03197.77155.60-85.59-125.41-49.134.534.514.494.48
Accounts Payable --81.90-1,339.38280.36413.88182.893.90-10.19-10.15-10.10-10.06
Capital Expenditure --10.40113.75-297.62326.8546.21-121.96-1.89-1.88-1.87-1.86
UFCF 1,704.201,706.28516.242,617.243,090.431,908.791,636.082,068.492,060.212,051.972,043.77
WACC
PV UFCF 1,502.651,744.841,596.131,460.091,335.64
SUM PV UFCF 13,017.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,125.52
Terminal Value 43,555.65
Present Value of Terminal Value 28,464.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 41,481.96
Net Debt 9,593.82
Equity Value 31,888.15
Shares Outstanding 2,312.33
Equity Value Per Share 13.79