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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,517.132,435.321,257.60975.651,129.801,473.601,391.661,314.291,241.211,172.201,107.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,293.051,798.48-5,635.05-549.19353.51696.13-697.22-658.46-621.85-587.27-554.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 783.081,205.48-6,166.76-1,395.27145.86479.66-1,176.65-1,111.23-1,049.45-991.10-935.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 509.97593.00531.71846.08207.66216.47479.43452.77427.60403.82381.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12.08463.44145.631.560.11131.5993.2488.0683.1678.5474.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 340.32338.75187.51168.88191.50152.81201.65190.44179.85169.85160.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 585.23522.86340.56280.89253.75259.65326.35308.20291.06274.88259.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,179.53-1,072.52-555.73-201.57-354.76-338.48-487.36-460.26-434.67-410.50-387.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.04
Diluted Shares Outstanding 432.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.28
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.01
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 31.26
Total Debt 2,664.21
Total Equity 449.78
Total Capital 3,113.99
Debt Weighting 85.56
Equity Weighting 14.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,517.132,435.321,257.60975.651,129.801,473.601,391.661,314.291,241.211,172.201,107.03
EBITDA 1,293.051,798.48-5,635.05-549.19353.51696.13-697.22-658.46-621.85-587.27-554.62
EBIT 783.081,205.48-6,166.76-1,395.27145.86479.66-1,176.65-1,111.23-1,049.45-991.10-935.99
Tax Rate 36.24%37.85%30.68%35.79%-250.86%21.28%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%
EBIAT 499.31749.17-4,275.07-895.87511.76377.58-1,351.24-1,276.11-1,205.16-1,138.15-1,074.87
Depreciation 509.97593.00531.71846.08207.66216.47479.43452.77427.60403.82381.37
Accounts Receivable -1.56151.2418.62-22.6238.69-48.8411.2110.5910.009.44
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --62.37-182.31-59.67-27.145.8966.70-18.14-17.14-16.18-15.28
Capital Expenditure --107.01-516.78-354.16153.19-16.27148.88-27.10-25.59-24.17-22.82
UFCF 1,009.281,174.36-4,291.20-445.00822.85622.37-705.08-857.37-809.70-764.68-722.16
WACC
PV UFCF -653.58-736.69-644.91-564.57-494.23
SUM PV UFCF -2,806.61

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.88
Free cash flow (t + 1) -751.05
Terminal Value -19,356.96
Present Value of Terminal Value -13,247.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -16,054.07
Net Debt 2,532.62
Equity Value -18,586.69
Shares Outstanding 432.48
Equity Value Per Share -42.98