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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Denbury Resources Inc.

Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,517.132,435.321,257.60975.651,129.801,473.601,391.661,314.291,241.211,172.201,107.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,293.051,798.48-5,635.05-549.19353.51696.13-979.73-925.26-873.81-825.23-779.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 783.081,205.48-6,166.76-1,395.27145.86479.66-1,498.54-1,415.22-1,336.54-1,262.23-1,192.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 509.97593.00531.71846.08207.66216.47518.81489.97462.72437.00412.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12.08463.44145.631.560.11131.59110.50104.3598.5593.0787.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 340.32338.75187.51168.88191.50152.81204.44193.07182.33172.20162.62
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 585.23522.86340.56280.89253.75259.65326.76308.59291.44275.23259.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,179.53-1,072.52-555.73-201.57-354.76-338.48-454.38-429.11-405.26-382.72-361.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.06
Diluted Shares Outstanding 456.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.28
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.01
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 31.26
Total Debt 2,664.21
Total Equity 483.54
Total Capital 3,147.75
Debt Weighting 84.64
Equity Weighting 15.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,517.132,435.321,257.60975.651,129.801,473.601,391.661,314.291,241.211,172.201,107.03
EBITDA 1,293.051,798.48-5,635.05-549.19353.51696.13-979.73-925.26-873.81-825.23-779.35
EBIT 783.081,205.48-6,166.76-1,395.27145.86479.66-1,498.54-1,415.22-1,336.54-1,262.23-1,192.05
Tax Rate 36.24%37.85%30.68%35.79%-250.86%21.28%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%-14.84%
EBIAT 499.31749.17-4,275.07-895.87511.76377.58-1,720.89-1,625.21-1,534.85-1,449.51-1,368.92
Depreciation 509.97593.00531.71846.08207.66216.47518.81489.97462.72437.00412.70
Accounts Receivable -1.56151.2418.62-22.6238.69-51.6211.3710.7310.149.57
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --62.37-182.31-59.67-27.145.8967.12-18.17-17.16-16.20-15.30
Capital Expenditure --107.01-516.78-354.16153.19-16.27115.89-25.26-23.86-22.53-21.28
UFCF 1,009.281,174.36-4,291.20-445.00822.85622.37-1,070.70-1,167.31-1,102.41-1,041.11-983.23
WACC
PV UFCF -990.19-998.37-871.97-761.58-665.15
SUM PV UFCF -3,518.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,022.56
Terminal Value -24,759.23
Present Value of Terminal Value -16,749.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -20,267.85
Net Debt 2,532.62
Equity Value -22,800.46
Shares Outstanding 456.17
Equity Value Per Share -49.98

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
10.13 (%) -28.43 Sell -30.27 Sell -32.56 Sell -35.49 Sell -39.38 Sell -44.78 Sell -52.80 Sell -65.94 Sell -91.43 Sell
9.63 (%) -27.39 Sell -29.01 Sell -31.02 Sell -33.55 Sell -36.85 Sell -41.32 Sell -47.71 Sell -57.63 Sell -75.10 Sell
9.13 (%) -26.44 Sell -27.89 Sell -29.66 Sell -31.86 Sell -34.69 Sell -38.43 Sell -43.64 Sell -51.36 Sell -64.02 Sell
8.63 (%) -25.58 Sell -26.88 Sell -28.45 Sell -30.38 Sell -32.82 Sell -36.00 Sell -40.30 Sell -46.46 Sell -56.02 Sell
8.13 (%) -24.80 Sell -25.97 Sell -27.37 Sell -29.08 Sell -31.20 Sell -33.92 Sell -37.53 Sell -42.54 Sell -49.98 Sell
7.63 (%) -24.09 Sell -25.15 Sell -26.40 Sell -27.91 Sell -29.78 Sell -32.13 Sell -35.19 Sell -39.33 Sell -45.27 Sell
7.13 (%) -23.45 Sell -24.40 Sell -25.53 Sell -26.87 Sell -28.52 Sell -30.56 Sell -33.19 Sell -36.66 Sell -41.50 Sell
6.63 (%) -22.85 Sell -23.72 Sell -24.73 Sell -25.94 Sell -27.40 Sell -29.19 Sell -31.46 Sell -34.41 Sell -38.41 Sell
6.13 (%) -22.30 Sell -23.09 Sell -24.01 Sell -25.10 Sell -26.40 Sell -27.98 Sell -29.96 Sell -32.48 Sell -35.84 Sell