Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Equity Residential of Beneficial Interest

Equity Residential of Beneficial Interest (EQR)

Real Estate

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,387.702,614.772,744.992,425.752,471.352,578.362,625.032,672.542,720.912,770.162,820.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,432.081,848.912,084.825,485.101,735.381,861.832,704.832,753.792,803.632,854.382,906.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,418.741,090.101,315.674,776.05987.801,071.821,932.281,967.262,002.862,039.122,076.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,013.34758.81769.15709.05747.58790.01772.55786.53800.76815.26830.01
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --42.27219.04100.83116.28125.74128.01130.33132.69135.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 362.21342.27396.38339.85307.68309.15346.24352.51358.89365.38372.00
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 3,925.86-668.86-726.605,822.52-588.68-370.25786.46800.69815.19829.94844.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 81.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding 383.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.04
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.32
Total Debt 7,871.35
Total Equity 31,328.70
Total Capital 39,200.05
Debt Weighting 20.08
Equity Weighting 79.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,387.702,614.772,744.992,425.752,471.352,578.362,625.032,672.542,720.912,770.162,820.30
EBITDA 3,432.081,848.912,084.825,485.101,735.381,861.832,704.832,753.792,803.632,854.382,906.04
EBIT 2,418.741,090.101,315.674,776.05987.801,071.821,932.281,967.262,002.862,039.122,076.02
Tax Rate 0.06%0.22%0.11%0.04%0.08%0.13%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.11%
EBIAT 2,417.201,087.701,314.294,774.26987.021,070.391,930.221,965.162,000.732,036.942,073.81
Depreciation 1,013.34758.81769.15709.05747.58790.01772.55786.53800.76815.26830.01
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --19.9454.10-56.53-32.161.4637.106.276.386.506.61
Capital Expenditure -4,594.7257.74-6,549.126,411.19-218.42-1,156.71-14.23-14.49-14.75-15.02
UFCF 3,430.546,421.282,195.28-1,122.348,113.631,643.441,583.152,743.722,793.382,843.942,895.42
WACC
PV UFCF 1,481.662,403.212,289.852,181.842,078.92
SUM PV UFCF 23,715.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,011.24
Terminal Value 105,657.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 75,862.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 99,578.33
Net Debt 7,755.07
Equity Value 91,823.26
Shares Outstanding 383.69
Equity Value Per Share 239.31

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
8.85 (%) 106.19 Buy 115.18 Buy 126.79 Buy 142.37 Buy 164.38 Buy 197.82 Buy 254.72 Buy 373.15 Buy 770.21 Buy
8.35 (%) 101.30 Buy 109.15 Buy 119.13 Buy 132.26 Buy 150.29 Buy 176.61 Buy 218.65 Buy 296.47 Buy 489.57 Buy
7.85 (%) 96.95 Buy 103.84 Buy 112.49 Buy 123.67 Buy 138.67 Buy 159.86 Buy 192.05 Buy 246.84 Buy 360.85 Buy
7.35 (%) 93.05 Buy 99.14 Buy 106.70 Buy 116.31 Buy 128.95 Buy 146.31 Buy 171.66 Buy 212.14 Buy 287.07 Buy
6.85 (%) 89.54 Buy 94.95 Buy 101.60 Buy 109.93 Buy 120.69 Buy 135.14 Buy 155.55 Buy 186.55 Buy 239.31 Buy
6.35 (%) 86.37 Buy 91.20 Buy 97.08 Buy 104.35 Buy 113.61 Buy 125.79 Buy 142.51 Buy 166.93 Buy 205.92 Buy
5.85 (%) 83.49 Buy 87.83 Buy 93.05 Buy 99.45 Buy 107.48 Buy 117.85 Buy 131.77 Buy 151.43 Buy 181.30 Buy
5.35 (%) 80.88 Sell 84.78 Buy 89.45 Buy 95.10 Buy 102.12 Buy 111.04 Buy 122.77 Buy 138.89 Buy 162.41 Buy
4.85 (%) 78.49 Sell 82.02 Buy 86.20 Buy 91.23 Buy 97.40 Buy 105.14 Buy 115.13 Buy 128.55 Buy 147.49 Buy