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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Etsy Inc.

Etsy Inc. (ETSY)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 125.02195.60273.50364.96441.24603.70830.031,141.211,569.052,157.292,966.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.747.55-7.9326.8670.60104.0268.9894.83130.39179.27246.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.36-9.68-26.484.3443.4277.2715.2721.0028.8739.6954.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.3817.2318.5422.5227.1826.7453.7073.84101.52139.58191.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 54.8794.18298.20287.44345.89629.60694.90955.421,313.611,806.082,483.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.3925.9839.5556.2478.3233.32110.23151.55208.37286.49393.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.6418.8033.6440.8058.2947.6389.98123.71170.09233.85321.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.08-9.58-20.84-47.74-13.15-20.53-53.12-73.04-100.42-138.07-189.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 52.71
Diluted Shares Outstanding 127.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -40.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.08
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.25
Total Debt 338.57
Total Equity 6,698.64
Total Capital 7,037.21
Debt Weighting 4.81
Equity Weighting 95.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 125.02195.60273.50364.96441.24603.70830.031,141.211,569.052,157.292,966.06
EBITDA 12.747.55-7.9326.8670.60104.0268.9894.83130.39179.27246.48
EBIT 0.36-9.68-26.484.3443.4277.2715.2721.0028.8739.6954.58
Tax Rate 1,472.41%-48.57%-93.12%-939.67%-153.53%-40.69%32.81%32.81%32.81%32.81%32.81%
EBIAT -4.98-14.38-51.1345.15110.08108.7210.2614.1119.4026.6736.67
Depreciation 12.3817.2318.5422.5227.1826.7453.7073.84101.52139.58191.90
Accounts Receivable --9.58-13.57-16.69-22.0845.00-76.90-41.32-56.82-78.12-107.40
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -8.1614.847.1617.48-10.6642.3433.7346.3863.7687.67
Capital Expenditure --7.4911.2626.90-34.597.3832.6019.9227.3837.6551.76
UFCF 7.40-6.07-20.0685.0498.07177.1862.00100.27137.86189.54260.60
WACC
PV UFCF 56.3182.72103.29128.99161.08
SUM PV UFCF 503.53

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) 271.03
Terminal Value 4,443.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,746.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,249.82
Net Debt -291.03
Equity Value 3,540.86
Shares Outstanding 127.08
Equity Value Per Share 27.86

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.10 (%) 17.27 Sell 18.39 Sell 19.73 Sell 21.37 Sell 23.40 Sell 26.01 Sell 29.48 Sell 34.31 Sell 41.49 Sell
11.60 (%) 16.60 Sell 17.60 Sell 18.80 Sell 20.25 Sell 22.04 Sell 24.29 Sell 27.23 Sell 31.22 Sell 36.94 Sell
11.10 (%) 15.97 Sell 16.89 Sell 17.97 Sell 19.26 Sell 20.83 Sell 22.79 Sell 25.31 Sell 28.65 Sell 33.31 Sell
10.60 (%) 15.41 Sell 16.23 Sell 17.21 Sell 18.36 Sell 19.76 Sell 21.48 Sell 23.66 Sell 26.49 Sell 30.33 Sell
10.10 (%) 14.88 Sell 15.64 Sell 16.52 Sell 17.56 Sell 18.80 Sell 20.32 Sell 22.21 Sell 24.64 Sell 27.86 Sell
9.60 (%) 14.40 Sell 15.09 Sell 15.89 Sell 16.83 Sell 17.94 Sell 19.29 Sell 20.95 Sell 23.05 Sell 25.78 Sell
9.10 (%) 13.95 Sell 14.59 Sell 15.32 Sell 16.16 Sell 17.17 Sell 18.37 Sell 19.83 Sell 21.66 Sell 24.00 Sell
8.60 (%) 13.54 Sell 14.12 Sell 14.79 Sell 15.56 Sell 16.46 Sell 17.54 Sell 18.84 Sell 20.44 Sell 22.46 Sell
8.10 (%) 13.16 Sell 13.69 Sell 14.30 Sell 15.01 Sell 15.83 Sell 16.79 Sell 17.95 Sell 19.36 Sell 21.13 Sell