Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Etsy Inc.

Etsy Inc. (ETSY)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 125.02195.60273.50364.96441.24603.70830.031,141.211,569.052,157.292,966.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12.747.55-7.9326.8670.60104.0271.5598.37135.25185.96255.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.36-9.68-26.484.3443.4277.2713.1118.0324.7934.0946.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.3817.2318.5422.5227.1826.7458.4380.34110.46151.87208.81
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 54.8794.18298.20287.44345.89629.60639.87879.761,209.581,663.062,286.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.3925.9839.5556.2478.3233.32110.06151.32208.06286.06393.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.6418.8033.6440.8058.2947.6386.74119.26163.97225.44309.95
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.08-9.58-20.84-47.74-13.15-20.53-63.17-86.85-119.40-164.17-225.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 41.07
Diluted Shares Outstanding 120.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -40.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.08
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.25
Total Debt 338.57
Total Equity 4,934.40
Total Capital 5,272.97
Debt Weighting 6.42
Equity Weighting 93.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 125.02195.60273.50364.96441.24603.70830.031,141.211,569.052,157.292,966.06
EBITDA 12.747.55-7.9326.8670.60104.0271.5598.37135.25185.96255.67
EBIT 0.36-9.68-26.484.3443.4277.2713.1118.0324.7934.0946.86
Tax Rate 1,472.41%-48.57%-93.12%-939.67%-153.53%-40.69%32.81%32.81%32.81%32.81%32.81%
EBIAT -4.98-14.38-51.1345.15110.08108.728.8112.1216.6622.9031.49
Depreciation 12.3817.2318.5422.5227.1826.7458.4380.34110.46151.87208.81
Accounts Receivable --9.58-13.57-16.69-22.0845.00-76.74-41.26-56.73-78.00-107.24
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -8.1614.847.1617.48-10.6639.1132.5244.7161.4784.52
Capital Expenditure --7.4911.2626.90-34.597.3842.6423.6832.5644.7661.55
UFCF 7.40-6.07-20.0685.0498.07177.1872.25107.39147.66203.01279.12
WACC
PV UFCF 65.6688.69110.82138.46173.00
SUM PV UFCF 530.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 290.29
Terminal Value 4,806.06
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,978.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,508.78
Net Debt -291.03
Equity Value 3,799.81
Shares Outstanding 120.15
Equity Value Per Share 31.63