Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Geron Corporation

Geron Corporation (GERN)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1.281.1536.376.161.061.077.2048.66328.802,221.8215,013.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -38.00-35.540.19-29.46-27.84-26.96-125.36-847.10-5,724.12-38,679.63-261,369.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-125.62-848.87-5,736.09-38,760.50-261,916.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.320.050.050.080.080.060.261.7711.9780.87546.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 66.02151.71114.04115.1194.95163.56570.403,854.3326,044.88175,993.071,189,238.00
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.560.961.210.480.441.173.5323.85161.181,089.147,359.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.401.030.160.220.500.983.3622.68153.291,035.816,999.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 1.19-0.13-0.09-0.04--0.02-0.25-1.67-11.31-76.43-516.46
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding 176.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.05
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 25.98
Total Debt -
Total Equity 227.69
Total Capital 227.69
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1.281.1536.376.161.061.077.2048.66328.802,221.8215,013.49
EBITDA -38.00-35.540.19-29.46-27.84-26.96-125.36-847.10-5,724.12-38,679.63-261,369.83
EBIT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-125.62-848.87-5,736.09-38,760.50-261,916.32
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-125.62-848.87-5,736.09-38,760.50-261,916.32
Depreciation 0.320.050.050.080.080.060.261.7711.9780.87546.49
Accounts Receivable --0.40-0.240.730.04-0.73-2.36-20.32-137.33-927.96-6,270.48
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --0.36-0.870.060.280.482.3819.33130.60882.525,963.48
Capital Expenditure -1.32-0.04-0.05-0.04-0.231.439.6465.12440.03
UFCF -38.00-34.98-0.97-28.71-27.56-27.21-125.12-846.67-5,721.21-38,659.94-261,236.80
WACC
PV UFCF -99.31-533.47-2,861.43-15,348.10-82,323.98
SUM PV UFCF -25,385.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 25.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -271,686.27
Terminal Value -1,236,061.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -389,522.00

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -414,907.73
Net Debt -163.56
Equity Value -414,744.18
Shares Outstanding 176.50
Equity Value Per Share -2,349.76

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
27.98 (%) -1,876.47 Sell -1,959.45 Sell -2,048.82 Sell -2,145.35 Sell -2,249.92 Sell -2,363.60 Sell -2,487.62 Sell -2,623.46 Sell -2,772.91 Sell
27.48 (%) -1,812.11 Sell -1,890.87 Sell -1,975.58 Sell -2,066.94 Sell -2,165.77 Sell -2,273.01 Sell -2,389.80 Sell -2,517.45 Sell -2,657.58 Sell
26.98 (%) -1,750.76 Sell -1,825.57 Sell -1,905.92 Sell -1,992.47 Sell -2,085.94 Sell -2,187.21 Sell -2,297.29 Sell -2,417.39 Sell -2,548.94 Sell
26.48 (%) -1,692.24 Sell -1,763.35 Sell -1,839.63 Sell -1,921.68 Sell -2,010.16 Sell -2,105.87 Sell -2,209.74 Sell -2,322.84 Sell -2,446.48 Sell
25.98 (%) -1,636.41 Sell -1,704.04 Sell -1,776.51 Sell -1,854.34 Sell -1,938.17 Sell -2,028.71 Sell -2,126.80 Sell -2,233.43 Sell -2,349.76 Sell
25.48 (%) -1,583.10 Sell -1,647.47 Sell -1,716.35 Sell -1,790.25 Sell -1,869.73 Sell -1,955.45 Sell -2,048.17 Sell -2,148.79 Sell -2,258.36 Sell
24.98 (%) -1,532.18 Sell -1,593.48 Sell -1,659.00 Sell -1,729.21 Sell -1,804.62 Sell -1,885.84 Sell -1,973.56 Sell -2,068.60 Sell -2,171.91 Sell
24.48 (%) -1,483.51 Sell -1,541.92 Sell -1,604.29 Sell -1,671.03 Sell -1,742.64 Sell -1,819.66 Sell -1,902.72 Sell -1,992.56 Sell -2,090.06 Sell
23.98 (%) -1,436.97 Sell -1,492.66 Sell -1,552.06 Sell -1,615.56 Sell -1,683.60 Sell -1,756.68 Sell -1,835.39 Sell -1,920.41 Sell -2,012.51 Sell