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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Geron Corporation

Geron Corporation (GERN)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1.281.1536.376.161.061.077.2048.66328.802,221.8215,013.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -38.00-35.540.19-29.46-27.84-26.96-140.02-946.13-6,393.30-43,201.47-291,925.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-140.53-949.63-6,416.94-43,361.22-293,004.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.320.050.050.080.080.060.523.5023.64159.751,079.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 66.02151.71114.04115.1194.95163.56537.093,629.2524,523.91165,715.391,119,788.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 0.560.961.210.480.441.173.4723.44158.421,070.477,233.50
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.401.030.160.220.500.984.1027.73187.381,266.218,556.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 1.19-0.13-0.09-0.04--0.021.147.7152.08351.942,378.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.5
Diluted Shares Outstanding 176.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.05
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 25.98
Total Debt -
Total Equity 264.76
Total Capital 264.76
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1.281.1536.376.161.061.077.2048.66328.802,221.8215,013.49
EBITDA -38.00-35.540.19-29.46-27.84-26.96-140.02-946.13-6,393.30-43,201.47-291,925.29
EBIT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-140.53-949.63-6,416.94-43,361.22-293,004.76
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -38.32-35.590.13-29.54-27.92-27.02-140.53-949.63-6,416.94-43,361.22-293,004.76
Depreciation 0.320.050.050.080.080.060.523.5023.64159.751,079.47
Accounts Receivable --0.40-0.240.730.04-0.73-2.30-19.97-134.97-912.05-6,163.03
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --0.36-0.870.060.280.483.1223.63159.651,078.837,289.97
Capital Expenditure -1.32-0.04-0.05-0.04--1.16-6.57-44.37-299.85-2,026.20
UFCF -38.00-34.98-0.97-28.71-27.56-27.21-140.35-949.05-6,413.00-43,334.55-292,824.54
WACC
PV UFCF -111.41-597.98-3,207.42-17,203.94-92,278.27
SUM PV UFCF -28,445.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 25.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -304,537.52
Terminal Value -1,385,521.03
Present Value of Terminal Value -436,621.48

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -465,067.17
Net Debt -163.56
Equity Value -464,903.61
Shares Outstanding 176.50
Equity Value Per Share -2,633.94