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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,515.001,348.051,264.061,416.131,584.081,610.381,637.111,664.291,691.911,720.00
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 93.02-193.98276.96181.97-112.9562.4863.5264.5765.6566.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -118.02-413.99127.92-2.97-313.01-155.56-158.14-160.77-163.44-166.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 211.04220.00149.03184.95200.07218.05221.66225.34229.09232.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash ----------
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 94.9959.0441.9769.9676.9976.4977.7679.0580.3781.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 144.99105.9679.0085.96127.04121.58123.60125.65127.74129.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 46.0643.0024.0239.9342.9343.9644.6945.4446.1946.96
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -256.94-246.96-167.99-286.06-355.94-293.89-298.77-303.73-308.77-313.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.33
Diluted Shares Outstanding 465.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -
After-tax Cost of Debt -
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -11.12
Total Debt 357.00
Total Equity 1,548.45
Total Capital 1,905.45
Debt Weighting 18.74
Equity Weighting 81.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,515.001,348.051,264.061,416.131,584.081,610.381,637.111,664.291,691.911,720.00
EBITDA 93.02-193.98276.96181.97-112.9562.4863.5264.5765.6566.74
EBIT -118.02-413.99127.92-2.97-313.01-155.56-158.14-160.77-163.44-166.15
Tax Rate ----------
EBIAT ----------
Depreciation 211.04220.00149.03184.95200.07218.05221.66225.34229.09232.89
Accounts Receivable -35.9517.08-27.99-7.030.49-1.27-1.29-1.31-1.33
Inventories -39.0326.95-6.96-41.085.46-2.02-2.05-2.09-2.12
Accounts Payable --3.05-18.9915.922.991.030.730.740.750.77
Capital Expenditure --9.98-78.97118.0669.89-62.054.884.965.045.13
UFCF ----------
WACC
PV UFCF -----
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -
Free cash flow (t + 1) -
Terminal Value -
Present Value of Terminal Value -

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 357.00
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 465.00
Equity Value Per Share -