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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


At Home Group Inc.

At Home Group Inc. (HOME)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 497.73622.17765.64950.541,165.931,442.491,784.652,207.972,731.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 69.6354.88106.88136.12132.57180.17222.90275.78341.19
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 46.3426.1969.9887.3576.02110.64136.88169.35209.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 23.2928.6836.9048.7656.5569.5386.02106.42131.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 21.955.487.588.5513.4124.0929.8036.8745.62
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ---------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 142.25176.38243.78269.86382.08432.60535.22662.17819.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 31.6631.1158.4279.66115.78107.61133.13164.71203.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -100.24-56.93-62.17-170.24-209.17-211.32-261.45-323.47-400.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.05
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.05
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.75
Total Debt 371.47
Total Equity 401.11
Total Capital 772.59
Debt Weighting 48.08
Equity Weighting 51.92
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 497.73622.17765.64950.541,165.931,442.491,784.652,207.972,731.70
EBITDA 69.6354.88106.88136.12132.57180.17222.90275.78341.19
EBIT 46.3426.1969.9887.3576.02110.64136.88169.35209.52
Tax Rate 111.12%133.76%36.74%51.55%-0.03%66.63%66.63%66.63%66.63%
EBIAT -5.15-8.8444.2742.3276.0536.9245.6856.5269.92
Depreciation 23.2928.6836.9048.7656.5569.5386.02106.42131.67
Accounts Receivable ---------
Inventories --34.13-67.39-26.08-112.22-50.53-102.61-126.95-157.07
Accounts Payable --0.5527.3121.2436.12-8.1725.5331.5839.07
Capital Expenditure --43.325.24108.0738.932.1650.1362.0276.73
UFCF 18.14-58.1646.33194.3295.4249.91104.74129.58160.32
WACC
PV UFCF 49.9192.54101.16110.58
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 191.03
Terminal Value 2,080.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,120.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 358.06
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 66.30
Equity Value Per Share -