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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Kosmos Energy Ltd.

Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 852.15882.75471.56385.36636.85902.41984.891,074.911,173.161,280.391,397.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 357.14832.43288.93-99.81165.13389.57395.04431.15470.55513.56560.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 123.56623.84122.65-250.41-100.3050.3559.0964.4970.3976.8283.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 233.58208.59166.27150.60265.44339.22335.95366.65400.16436.74476.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 651.04586.85310.85273.18304.99185.63571.53623.77680.78743.01810.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21.30177.70175.70188.98195.89159.01258.24281.84307.60335.72366.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 47.4655.3585.1674.3771.8484.83114.74125.23136.67149.17162.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 94.16184.41295.67220.62141.76176.51318.02347.09378.81413.44451.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -322.37-426.90-825.14-537.96-143.35-1,183.51-910.14-993.33-1,084.12-1,183.21-1,291.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.34
Diluted Shares Outstanding 404.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -84.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.29
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.07
Total Debt 2,120.55
Total Equity 2,565.07
Total Capital 4,685.62
Debt Weighting 45.26
Equity Weighting 54.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 852.15882.75471.56385.36636.85902.41984.891,074.911,173.161,280.391,397.41
EBITDA 357.14832.43288.93-99.81165.13389.57395.04431.15470.55513.56560.50
EBIT 123.56623.84122.65-250.41-100.3050.3559.0964.4970.3976.8283.84
Tax Rate 219.87%51.69%181.74%3.66%-25.27%-84.80%57.81%57.81%57.81%57.81%57.81%
EBIAT -148.11301.38-100.26-241.24-125.6593.0624.9327.2129.6932.4135.37
Depreciation 233.58208.59166.27150.60265.44339.22335.95366.65400.16436.74476.66
Accounts Receivable --156.391.99-13.28-6.9136.89-99.23-23.60-25.76-28.11-30.68
Inventories --7.88-29.8210.792.54-12.99-29.91-10.49-11.45-12.49-13.63
Accounts Payable -90.24111.26-75.05-78.8634.75141.5129.0731.7234.6237.79
Capital Expenditure -104.53398.24-287.18-394.611,040.16-273.3783.1990.7999.09108.14
UFCF 85.46540.47547.70-455.36-338.051,531.0899.86472.02515.17562.25613.64
WACC
PV UFCF 86.71355.86337.23319.58302.84
SUM PV UFCF 1,671.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 638.19
Terminal Value 5,713.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,819.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,491.19
Net Debt 1,934.92
Equity Value 2,556.27
Shares Outstanding 404.58
Equity Value Per Share 6.32