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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar Corporation Class A (LEN)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,935.107,779.729,474.1510,950.2212,646.4120,571.9126,603.5934,403.7744,490.9557,535.7074,405.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 781.061,054.931,237.321,379.731,294.992,332.853,277.564,238.545,481.297,088.409,166.72
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 750.791,016.031,193.741,329.361,229.232,242.343,149.874,073.415,267.736,812.238,809.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.2738.9043.5850.3765.7690.52127.70165.14213.56276.17357.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --906.681,055.602,291.531,349.522,921.073,777.534,885.116,317.428,169.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 163.8193.3674.85107.31137.85236.58353.83457.57591.73765.22989.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,601.017,736.938,740.859,178.4710,860.7317,068.5124,634.9331,857.8941,198.6253,278.0668,899.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 271.23412.33475.60478.52604.501,154.081,314.221,699.552,197.852,842.263,675.62
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 122.867.00-26.53-51.47-51.85-92.5723.9430.9640.0451.7866.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.74
Diluted Shares Outstanding 330.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.33
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.02
Total Debt 7,397.00
Total Equity 19,400.95
Total Capital 26,797.95
Debt Weighting 27.60
Equity Weighting 72.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,935.107,779.729,474.1510,950.2212,646.4120,571.9126,603.5934,403.7744,490.9557,535.7074,405.17
EBITDA 781.061,054.931,237.321,379.731,294.992,332.853,277.564,238.545,481.297,088.409,166.72
EBIT 750.791,016.031,193.741,329.361,229.232,242.343,149.874,073.415,267.736,812.238,809.57
Tax Rate 26.96%34.80%32.72%31.40%34.02%24.33%30.70%30.70%30.70%30.70%30.70%
EBIAT 548.41662.40803.18911.94811.071,696.842,182.742,822.713,650.334,720.616,104.69
Depreciation 30.2738.9043.5850.3765.7690.52127.70165.14213.56276.17357.14
Accounts Receivable -70.4518.51-32.47-30.53-98.73-117.25-103.74-134.16-173.50-224.36
Inventories --1,135.92-1,003.91-437.63-1,682.26-6,207.78-7,566.41-7,222.96-9,340.73-12,079.44-15,621.13
Accounts Payable -141.0963.282.92125.97549.59160.13385.33498.31644.41833.35
Capital Expenditure -115.8533.5324.940.3840.72-116.52-7.02-9.08-11.74-15.18
UFCF 578.68-107.22-41.83520.08-709.61-3,928.84-5,329.62-3,960.54-5,121.77-6,623.48-8,565.48
WACC
PV UFCF -4,824.49-3,245.38-3,799.16-4,447.43-5,206.31
SUM PV UFCF -13,681.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.47
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8,908.10
Terminal Value -137,683.18
Present Value of Terminal Value -83,687.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -97,368.28
Net Debt 6,047.48
Equity Value -103,415.76
Shares Outstanding 330.29
Equity Value Per Share -313.11