Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Lennar Corporation Class A

Lennar Corporation Class A (LEN)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,935.107,779.729,474.1510,950.2212,646.4120,571.9126,603.5934,403.7744,490.9557,535.7074,405.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 781.061,054.931,237.321,379.731,294.992,332.853,235.004,183.505,410.106,996.349,047.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 750.791,016.031,193.741,329.361,229.232,242.343,107.304,018.365,196.546,720.178,690.52
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.2738.9043.5850.3765.7690.52127.70165.14213.56276.17357.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --906.681,055.602,291.531,349.522,921.073,777.534,885.116,317.428,169.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 163.8193.3674.85107.31137.85236.58276.68357.80462.71598.37773.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,601.017,736.938,740.859,178.4710,860.7317,068.5123,645.2730,578.0739,543.5651,137.7366,131.31
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 271.23412.33475.60478.52604.501,154.081,335.501,727.072,233.452,888.293,735.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 122.867.00-26.53-51.47-51.85-92.57-79.81-103.21-133.47-172.61-223.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 50.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.33
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.02
Total Debt 7,397.03
Total Equity -
Total Capital 7,397.03
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 5,935.107,779.729,474.1510,950.2212,646.4120,571.9126,603.5934,403.7744,490.9557,535.7074,405.17
EBITDA 781.061,054.931,237.321,379.731,294.992,332.853,235.004,183.505,410.106,996.349,047.67
EBIT 750.791,016.031,193.741,329.361,229.232,242.343,107.304,018.365,196.546,720.178,690.52
Tax Rate 26.96%34.80%32.72%31.40%34.02%24.33%30.70%30.70%30.70%30.70%30.70%
EBIAT 548.41662.40803.18911.94811.071,696.842,153.242,784.573,601.004,656.826,022.20
Depreciation 30.2738.9043.5850.3765.7690.52127.70165.14213.56276.17357.14
Accounts Receivable -70.4518.51-32.47-30.53-98.73-40.10-81.12-104.91-135.67-175.44
Inventories --1,135.92-1,003.91-437.63-1,682.26-6,207.78-6,576.76-6,932.79-8,965.49-11,594.17-14,993.58
Accounts Payable -141.0963.282.92125.97549.59181.42391.57506.38654.85846.85
Capital Expenditure -115.8533.5324.940.3840.72-12.7623.4030.2639.1350.61
UFCF 578.68-107.22-41.83520.08-709.61-3,928.84-4,167.27-3,649.24-4,719.20-6,102.87-7,892.23
WACC
PV UFCF -4,015.49-3,388.25-4,222.09-5,261.13-6,555.88
SUM PV UFCF -21,629.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8,207.92
Terminal Value 3,730,870.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,099,144.63

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,077,515.31
Net Debt 6,047.52
Equity Value 3,071,467.79
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.78 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
5.28 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
4.78 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
4.28 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell Infinity Buy
3.78 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell Infinity Buy
3.28 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
2.78 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
2.28 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
1.78 (%) -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell