Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


New Gold Inc.

New Gold Inc. (NGD)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 779.70725.98712.91522.78388.69604.48597.83591.26584.75578.32571.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 27.29-164.72-28.37201.11-19.40-940.70-144.80-143.20-141.63-140.07-138.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -151.34-382.81-269.770.84-179.81-1,181.89-350.33-346.48-342.67-338.90-335.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 178.63218.08241.39200.28160.41241.19205.54203.27201.04198.83196.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 414.41370.47335.50203.88216.19103.73262.09259.21256.36253.54250.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19.3434.77109.0037.1227.0935.9142.3941.9241.4641.0040.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 213.01254.02261.28253.70271.89156.68242.48239.81237.18234.57231.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 90.2196.99141.09169.22178.21130.87144.08142.49140.93139.38137.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -289.27-279.28-389.53-555.92-488.89-212.78-396.12-391.77-387.46-383.20-378.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.84
Diluted Shares Outstanding 578.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.01
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.05
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.01
Total Debt 780.50
Total Equity 486.11
Total Capital 1,266.61
Debt Weighting 61.62
Equity Weighting 38.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 779.70725.98712.91522.78388.69604.48597.83591.26584.75578.32571.96
EBITDA 27.29-164.72-28.37201.11-19.40-940.70-144.80-143.20-141.63-140.07-138.53
EBIT -151.34-382.81-269.770.84-179.81-1,181.89-350.33-346.48-342.67-338.90-335.17
Tax Rate 0.21%-16.51%34.67%23.08%43.93%2.01%14.57%14.57%14.57%14.57%14.57%
EBIAT -151.02-446.00-176.230.64-100.83-1,158.08-299.30-296.01-292.76-289.54-286.35
Depreciation 178.63218.08241.39200.28160.41241.19205.54203.27201.04198.83196.64
Accounts Receivable --15.44-74.2371.8910.03-8.81-6.480.470.460.460.45
Inventories --41.01-7.267.58-18.18115.20-85.802.672.642.612.58
Accounts Payable -6.7844.0928.148.99-47.3413.21-1.58-1.57-1.55-1.53
Capital Expenditure --9.98110.25166.39-67.03-276.11183.35-4.36-4.31-4.26-4.22
UFCF 27.61-287.57138.02474.91-6.62-1,133.9510.51-95.55-94.50-93.46-92.43
WACC
PV UFCF 9.97-86.12-80.86-75.93-71.29
SUM PV UFCF -787.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) -96.12
Terminal Value -7,227.42
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,574.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -6,362.04
Net Debt 676.77
Equity Value -7,038.81
Shares Outstanding 578.70
Equity Value Per Share -12.16