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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Nucor Corporation

Nucor Corporation (NUE)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 19,052.0521,105.8616,439.3516,207.5620,251.3425,065.0926,869.7728,804.4030,878.3133,101.5535,484.86
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,449.861,941.741,002.802,050.262,588.123,965.302,872.383,079.193,300.893,538.563,793.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 840.201,217.81302.481,363.061,861.103,245.931,905.072,042.232,189.272,346.902,515.88
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 609.67723.93700.32687.20727.02719.37967.311,036.961,111.621,191.661,277.46
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,510.831,124.942,040.122,196.12998.391,398.632,227.502,387.882,559.812,744.122,941.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,811.852,068.371,384.191,632.102,029.182,506.512,587.562,773.862,973.583,187.683,417.19
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,606.322,745.872,245.622,479.763,460.954,554.334,070.774,363.874,678.065,014.895,375.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,116.45994.09567.16837.931,180.651,428.711,375.731,474.791,580.971,694.801,816.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,162.17-631.07-345.23-586.71-423.25-949.97-927.01-993.75-1,065.30-1,142.00-1,224.23
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.47
Diluted Shares Outstanding 313.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.07
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.15
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.38
Total Debt 4,233.28
Total Equity 17,727.77
Total Capital 21,961.05
Debt Weighting 19.28
Equity Weighting 80.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 19,052.0521,105.8616,439.3516,207.5620,251.3425,065.0926,869.7728,804.4030,878.3133,101.5535,484.86
EBITDA 1,449.861,941.741,002.802,050.262,588.123,965.302,872.383,079.193,300.893,538.563,793.33
EBIT 840.201,217.81302.481,363.061,861.103,245.931,905.072,042.232,189.272,346.902,515.88
Tax Rate 29.64%35.18%37.69%33.34%21.88%24.07%30.30%30.30%30.30%30.30%30.30%
EBIAT 591.15789.36188.47908.621,453.852,464.681,327.811,423.421,525.901,635.771,753.54
Depreciation 609.67723.93700.32687.20727.02719.37967.311,036.961,111.621,191.661,277.46
Accounts Receivable --256.52684.18-247.91-397.08-477.32-81.05-186.30-199.72-214.10-229.51
Inventories --139.55500.26-234.14-981.20-1,093.37483.56-293.10-314.20-336.82-361.07
Accounts Payable --122.36-426.93270.77342.72248.06-52.9899.05106.18113.83122.03
Capital Expenditure --531.11-285.84241.49-163.46526.71-22.9666.7471.5576.7082.22
UFCF 1,200.82463.751,360.451,626.03981.852,388.132,621.692,146.772,301.342,467.032,644.66
WACC
PV UFCF 2,333.711,701.051,623.221,548.951,478.08
SUM PV UFCF 9,474.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,750.45
Terminal Value 32,978.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,431.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 27,906.21
Net Debt 2,834.64
Equity Value 25,071.57
Shares Outstanding 313.93
Equity Value Per Share 79.86