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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Philip Morris International Inc

Philip Morris International Inc (PM)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 80,029.0080,109.0373,908.5974,950.7078,098.6379,824.6179,856.5479,888.4879,920.4479,952.4179,984.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 14,101.1112,529.0511,322.8011,370.0212,128.7212,013.6012,553.4512,558.4712,563.4912,568.5212,573.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,220.7911,639.8410,568.9310,628.0111,254.0111,023.7811,675.0311,679.7011,684.3711,689.0411,693.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 880.32889.21753.87742.01874.70989.83878.42878.77879.12879.48879.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,152.781,682.293,414.584,242.218,450.276,593.514,543.844,545.654,547.474,549.294,551.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,849.394,005.452,778.963,500.203,740.923,560.183,657.433,658.893,660.363,661.823,663.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9,843.578,595.708,469.929,016.578,809.538,804.659,159.559,163.219,166.879,170.549,174.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,272.461,241.691,286.011,663.912,241.432,067.461,676.991,677.661,678.331,679.001,679.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,200.43-1,153.57-960.81-1,169.23-1,546.35-1,436.84-1,277.70-1,278.22-1,278.73-1,279.24-1,279.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 82.07
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,554.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.13
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.01
Total Debt 26,975.00
Total Equity 127,579.78
Total Capital 154,554.78
Debt Weighting 17.45
Equity Weighting 82.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 80,029.0080,109.0373,908.5974,950.7078,098.6379,824.6179,856.5479,888.4879,920.4479,952.4179,984.39
EBITDA 14,101.1112,529.0511,322.8011,370.0212,128.7212,013.6012,553.4512,558.4712,563.4912,568.5212,573.55
EBIT 13,220.7911,639.8410,568.9310,628.0111,254.0111,023.7811,675.0311,679.7011,684.3711,689.0411,693.72
Tax Rate 29.97%29.24%28.11%28.43%41.65%23.61%30.17%30.17%30.17%30.17%30.17%
EBIAT 9,258.668,235.827,597.567,606.106,567.208,421.128,152.748,156.008,159.268,162.538,165.79
Depreciation 880.32889.21753.87742.01874.70989.83878.42878.77879.12879.48879.83
Accounts Receivable --156.061,226.49-721.23-240.73180.75-97.25-1.46-1.46-1.46-1.46
Inventories -1,247.87125.77-546.64207.044.87-354.89-3.66-3.67-3.67-3.67
Accounts Payable --30.7744.32377.90577.53-173.97-390.470.670.670.670.67
Capital Expenditure --46.86-192.76208.42377.12-109.51-159.140.510.510.510.51
UFCF 10,138.9810,139.219,555.257,666.548,362.879,313.088,029.419,030.839,034.449,038.069,041.67
WACC
PV UFCF 7,371.177,610.846,989.706,419.265,895.37
SUM PV UFCF 62,240.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,403.34
Terminal Value 190,737.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 124,364.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 186,605.43
Net Debt 20,381.49
Equity Value 166,223.94
Shares Outstanding 1,554.52
Equity Value Per Share 106.93