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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Rite Aid Corporation

Rite Aid Corporation (RAD)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 25,392.2625,526.8426,530.0520,770.3722,928.4221,529.7821,639.5821,189.4820,748.7420,317.1719,894.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 936.971,079.791,241.61762.27655.751,838.64240.20885.72867.30849.26831.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 523.08676.46825.08400.87247.631,453.26-116.85527.62516.64505.90495.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 413.89403.32416.52361.40408.13385.38357.05358.10350.65343.36336.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 129.50145.50116.73124.62245.33447.82144.99190.71186.74182.85179.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 929.36949.60981.611,601.401,770.071,868.791,789.591,404.861,375.641,347.031,319.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,153.722,994.302,883.822,698.071,788.421,799.891,871.822,133.782,089.402,045.942,003.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,383.881,291.661,132.831,543.241,614.161,651.331,618.641,375.201,346.591,318.581,291.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -314.86-334.40-427.13-390.48-254.51-185.16-196.92-271.23-265.58-260.06-254.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.83
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -22.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.17
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.47
Total Debt 3,478.65
Total Equity -
Total Capital 3,478.65
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 25,392.2625,526.8426,530.0520,770.3722,928.4221,529.7821,639.5821,189.4820,748.7420,317.1719,894.57
EBITDA 936.971,079.791,241.61762.27655.751,838.64240.20885.72867.30849.26831.59
EBIT 523.08676.46825.08400.87247.631,453.26-116.85527.62516.64505.90495.37
Tax Rate -1,473.68%0.32%-394.16%23.03%91.64%24.49%-22.47%-250.12%-250.12%-250.12%-250.12%
EBIAT 8,231.64674.294,077.24308.5420.701,097.36-143.121,847.291,808.871,771.241,734.40
Depreciation 413.89403.32416.52361.40408.13385.38357.05358.10350.65343.36336.22
Accounts Receivable --20.24-32.01-619.78-168.68-98.7179.19384.7329.2228.6128.02
Inventories -159.42110.48185.74909.66-11.47-71.93-261.9644.3843.4642.56
Accounts Payable --92.22-158.83410.4170.9237.17-32.69-243.44-28.60-28.01-27.43
Capital Expenditure -19.5492.73-36.65-135.98-69.3511.7674.31-5.64-5.52-5.41
UFCF 8,645.531,144.114,506.13609.661,104.741,340.39200.272,159.032,198.882,153.142,108.36
WACC
PV UFCF 1,917.191,839.971,697.791,566.60
SUM PV UFCF 20,222.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,192.69
Terminal Value 103,428.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 76,852.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 97,074.28
Net Debt 3,333.66
Equity Value 93,740.62
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
8.12 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
7.62 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
7.12 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
6.62 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
6.12 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
5.62 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
5.12 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
4.62 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
4.12 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy