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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Sirius XM Holdings Inc.

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,799.094,181.284,570.145,017.105,424.995,770.576,274.346,822.097,417.658,065.228,769.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,094.901,366.031,463.361,691.771,908.512,071.632,073.672,254.702,451.532,665.552,898.26
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 841.501,099.681,190.981,422.851,610.141,770.991,706.621,855.612,017.602,193.742,385.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 253.40266.35272.38268.92298.37300.65367.05399.09433.93471.82513.00
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 134.87147.60111.97213.7368.9054.24167.52182.15198.05215.34234.14
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 192.99220.77234.91223.26241.95233.13297.40323.37351.60382.29415.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.6819.2322.3920.5720.0721.9325.7227.9730.4133.0735.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 578.22587.89625.20712.93794.22735.75884.68961.911,045.891,137.201,236.47
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -173.62-121.68-134.82-205.70-288.07-355.47-271.68-295.40-321.18-349.22-379.71
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.98
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,560.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.22
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.81
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.85
Total Debt 6,885.00
Total Equity 27,273.11
Total Capital 34,158.11
Debt Weighting 20.16
Equity Weighting 79.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,799.094,181.284,570.145,017.105,424.995,770.576,274.346,822.097,417.658,065.228,769.31
EBITDA 1,094.901,366.031,463.361,691.771,908.512,071.632,073.672,254.702,451.532,665.552,898.26
EBIT 841.501,099.681,190.981,422.851,610.141,770.991,706.621,855.612,017.602,193.742,385.25
Tax Rate 40.79%40.63%42.85%31.67%48.75%17.22%36.99%36.99%36.99%36.99%36.99%
EBIAT 498.24652.88680.60972.24825.201,465.951,075.401,169.291,271.361,382.351,503.03
Depreciation 253.40266.35272.38268.92298.37300.65367.05399.09433.93471.82513.00
Accounts Receivable --27.78-14.1311.64-18.698.82-64.27-25.96-28.23-30.69-33.37
Inventories --5.56-3.161.820.50-1.86-3.80-2.25-2.44-2.66-2.89
Accounts Payable -9.6737.3187.7381.29-58.47148.9377.2383.9891.3199.28
Capital Expenditure --51.9413.1470.8882.3767.40-83.7923.7225.7928.0430.49
UFCF 751.64843.62986.141,413.241,269.031,782.491,439.531,641.121,784.391,940.172,109.54
WACC
PV UFCF 1,314.641,368.711,359.091,349.531,340.04
SUM PV UFCF 8,869.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,193.92
Terminal Value 39,889.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 25,338.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 34,208.57
Net Debt 6,830.76
Equity Value 27,377.81
Shares Outstanding 4,560.72
Equity Value Per Share 6.00