Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


TAL Education Group American Depositary Shares

TAL Education Group American Depositary Shares (TAL)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 225.93313.89433.95619.941,043.111,715.082,563.013,853.745,794.498,712.5913,100.25
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 44.9277.3194.82163.04197.67319.00550.28835.111,255.661,888.022,838.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 37.5567.3082.36143.89164.08259.83461.34711.021,069.081,607.472,417.00
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7.3710.0112.4519.1633.5959.1788.94124.09186.58280.55421.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 211.86270.26492.75479.89702.431,505.151,524.733,222.884,845.937,286.3410,955.74
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables --0.483.973.443.265.1311.1816.8025.2737.99
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.410.190.560.622.825.327.697.3211.0116.5524.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.013.174.7314.6928.4857.63106.3685.94129.22194.29292.14
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -6.08-10.80-30.59-34.72-70.51-125.37-346.52-255.12-383.59-576.77-867.24
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.32
Diluted Shares Outstanding 189.95
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.24
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.81
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.42
Total Debt -
Total Equity 8,418.66
Total Capital 8,418.66
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 225.93313.89433.95619.941,043.111,715.082,563.013,853.745,794.498,712.5913,100.25
EBITDA 44.9277.3194.82163.04197.67319.00550.28835.111,255.661,888.022,838.82
EBIT 37.5567.3082.36143.89164.08259.83461.34711.021,069.081,607.472,417.00
Tax Rate 10.92%9.93%12.24%24.55%22.57%18.37%17.24%16.55%16.55%16.55%16.55%
EBIAT 33.4560.6272.28108.56127.05212.11381.80593.37892.191,341.492,017.06
Depreciation 7.3710.0112.4519.1633.5959.1788.94124.09186.58280.55421.83
Accounts Receivable ----3.490.530.18-1.87-6.05-5.63-8.46-12.72
Inventories -0.22-0.38-0.06-2.20-2.50-2.370.37-3.69-5.54-8.34
Accounts Payable -1.161.569.9613.7829.1548.74-20.4343.2865.0797.84
Capital Expenditure -4.7219.804.1235.8054.86221.15-91.40128.48193.18290.46
UFCF 40.8176.73105.71138.25208.55352.97736.38599.951,241.211,866.282,806.14
WACC
PV UFCF 560.921,122.101,631.392,371.85
SUM PV UFCF 6,021.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,918.39
Terminal Value -503,169.83
Present Value of Terminal Value -425,296.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -419,275.03
Net Debt -1,524.73
Equity Value -417,750.29
Shares Outstanding 189.95
Equity Value Per Share -2,199.25