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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Visa Inc.

Visa Inc. (V)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,778.0012,702.5713,880.1015,082.1218,357.9520,608.6423,071.3725,828.4028,914.8932,370.2236,238.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 7,654.528,166.489,492.608,940.6812,813.8514,030.3615,220.1817,039.0019,075.1621,354.6423,906.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,257.607,732.068,998.478,438.4512,257.6113,418.2914,468.0616,196.9918,132.5320,299.3722,725.14
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 396.92434.43494.13502.23556.25612.08752.13842.01942.631,055.271,181.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,303.685,448.137,087.189,964.7614,469.7413,199.8313,976.6415,646.8517,516.6419,609.8821,953.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,560.591,608.151,254.762,508.162,553.592,790.413,036.193,399.023,805.204,259.924,768.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,408.651,478.58906.372,286.452,182.762,351.452,613.992,926.363,276.063,667.554,105.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -471.12-552.56-403.91-523.35-695.77-704.82-828.26-927.24-1,038.04-1,162.09-1,300.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 178.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,586.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.56
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.93
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.40
Total Debt 16,630.00
Total Equity 461,213.10
Total Capital 477,843.10
Debt Weighting 3.48
Equity Weighting 96.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,778.0012,702.5713,880.1015,082.1218,357.9520,608.6423,071.3725,828.4028,914.8932,370.2236,238.47
EBITDA 7,654.528,166.489,492.608,940.6812,813.8514,030.3615,220.1817,039.0019,075.1621,354.6423,906.52
EBIT 7,257.607,732.068,998.478,438.4512,257.6113,418.2914,468.0616,196.9918,132.5320,299.3722,725.14
Tax Rate 31.38%29.60%29.65%25.22%42.71%19.56%29.69%29.69%29.69%29.69%29.69%
EBIAT 4,980.415,443.676,330.446,309.887,021.8710,793.5210,172.9111,388.5812,749.5114,273.0815,978.71
Depreciation 396.92434.43494.13502.23556.25612.08752.13842.01942.631,055.271,181.37
Accounts Receivable --47.56353.38-1,253.40-45.44-236.82-245.78-362.83-406.18-454.72-509.06
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -69.93-572.211,380.08-103.69168.69262.54312.37349.70391.49438.27
Capital Expenditure -81.44-148.65119.44172.429.05123.4598.98110.81124.05138.87
UFCF 5,377.335,981.916,457.107,058.237,601.4111,346.5111,065.2412,279.1113,746.4615,389.1617,228.17
WACC
PV UFCF 10,042.8810,114.8910,277.3810,442.4910,610.24
SUM PV UFCF 59,228.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 17,917.29
Terminal Value 289,923.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 178,554.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 237,782.87
Net Debt 3,430.17
Equity Value 234,352.71
Shares Outstanding 2,586.00
Equity Value Per Share 90.62

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.18 (%) 57.02 Sell 60.59 Sell 64.86 Sell 70.07 Sell 76.55 Sell 84.83 Sell 95.79 Sell 110.99 Sell 133.45 Sell
11.68 (%) 54.84 Sell 58.07 Sell 61.90 Sell 66.52 Sell 72.20 Sell 79.36 Sell 88.67 Sell 101.26 Sell 119.22 Sell
11.18 (%) 52.86 Sell 55.78 Sell 59.22 Sell 63.34 Sell 68.36 Sell 74.60 Sell 82.58 Sell 93.15 Sell 107.80 Sell
10.68 (%) 51.03 Sell 53.69 Sell 56.79 Sell 60.49 Sell 64.94 Sell 70.42 Sell 77.32 Sell 86.30 Sell 98.43 Sell
10.18 (%) 49.35 Sell 51.77 Sell 54.59 Sell 57.91 Sell 61.88 Sell 66.72 Sell 72.74 Sell 80.44 Sell 90.62 Sell
9.68 (%) 47.81 Sell 50.02 Sell 52.58 Sell 55.58 Sell 59.13 Sell 63.43 Sell 68.71 Sell 75.37 Sell 84.03 Sell
9.18 (%) 46.38 Sell 48.40 Sell 50.74 Sell 53.45 Sell 56.66 Sell 60.49 Sell 65.15 Sell 70.96 Sell 78.38 Sell
8.68 (%) 45.06 Sell 46.92 Sell 49.05 Sell 51.52 Sell 54.41 Sell 57.84 Sell 61.98 Sell 67.08 Sell 73.51 Sell
8.18 (%) 43.83 Sell 45.54 Sell 47.49 Sell 49.74 Sell 52.37 Sell 55.45 Sell 59.15 Sell 63.65 Sell 69.25 Sell