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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


VEON Ltd.

VEON Ltd. (VEON)

Communication Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 15,966.0013,486.489,606.428,884.989,474.059,085.628,189.777,382.266,654.375,998.255,406.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 528.473,158.532,461.166,104.872,937.904,018.572,679.692,415.482,177.311,962.631,769.11
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -2,524.22515.18393.863,976.92844.141,326.50824.71743.39670.10604.02544.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,052.702,643.352,067.302,127.952,093.772,692.071,854.981,672.081,507.221,358.601,224.65
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5,683.907,405.434,008.763,131.952,444.311,896.172,922.932,634.732,374.952,140.781,929.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,407.671,885.41677.25685.03755.08576.94793.59715.34644.81581.23523.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 191.59117.33103.75125.2872.00140.8394.1884.9076.5368.9862.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,860.054,006.831,767.581,744.121,544.271,431.891,778.001,602.691,444.661,302.221,173.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,862.70-3,479.51-2,189.30-1,635.72-2,029.34-1,930.69-1,741.96-1,570.21-1,415.38-1,275.83-1,150.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.54
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,756.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 72.21
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.56
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.72
Total Debt 6,567.00
Total Equity 4,462.10
Total Capital 11,029.10
Debt Weighting 59.54
Equity Weighting 40.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 15,966.0013,486.489,606.428,884.989,474.059,085.628,189.777,382.266,654.375,998.255,406.82
EBITDA 528.473,158.532,461.166,104.872,937.904,018.572,679.692,415.482,177.311,962.631,769.11
EBIT -2,524.22515.18393.863,976.92844.141,326.50824.71743.39670.10604.02544.47
Tax Rate -48.50%-106.60%-50.57%20.18%-518.68%72.21%-105.33%-105.33%-105.33%-105.33%-105.33%
EBIAT -3,748.521,064.35593.063,174.465,222.52368.621,693.361,526.391,375.891,240.231,117.94
Depreciation 3,052.702,643.352,067.302,127.952,093.772,692.071,854.981,672.081,507.221,358.601,224.65
Accounts Receivable -522.261,208.16-7.78-70.05178.15-216.6578.2570.5363.5857.31
Inventories -74.2613.58-21.5353.28-68.8246.649.298.377.556.80
Accounts Payable --853.22-2,239.25-23.46-199.85-112.38346.11-175.31-158.03-142.44-128.40
Capital Expenditure -616.81-1,290.21-553.58393.62-98.65-188.73-171.76-154.82-139.56-125.80
UFCF -695.824,067.81352.644,696.067,493.282,958.983,535.712,938.942,649.162,387.952,152.50
WACC
PV UFCF 3,286.282,538.912,127.121,782.121,493.08
SUM PV UFCF 20,999.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,238.60
Terminal Value 62,356.55
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,253.63

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 64,252.81
Net Debt 4,670.83
Equity Value 59,581.97
Shares Outstanding 1,756.73
Equity Value Per Share 33.92