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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Vipshop Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares each representing two

Vipshop Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares each representing two (VIPS)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,734.156,193.838,148.6011,020.9912,232.1916,626.0022,598.0630,715.2841,748.2156,744.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 245.71418.08532.92562.07532.10974.281,324.251,799.922,446.443,325.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 187.45328.27392.76401.16413.45736.531,001.091,360.691,849.452,513.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 58.2589.81140.16160.91118.65237.75323.15439.23597.00811.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,382.01790.33688.561,582.611,833.612,911.213,956.925,378.257,310.119,935.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 11.58346.85667.371,282.841,344.321,222.011,660.962,257.573,068.494,170.70
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 579.17703.62712.191,052.50776.741,712.482,327.603,163.674,300.075,844.65
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,000.381,055.431,207.621,730.301,683.152,929.503,981.785,412.037,356.039,998.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -263.63-642.92-399.28-372.51-519.87-995.90-1,353.62-1,839.85-2,500.72-3,398.98
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.64
Diluted Shares Outstanding 19.14
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.02
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.00
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 18.12
Total Debt -
Total Equity 261.09
Total Capital 261.09
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,734.156,193.838,148.6011,020.9912,232.1916,626.0022,598.0630,715.2841,748.2156,744.16
EBITDA 245.71418.08532.92562.07532.10974.281,324.251,799.922,446.443,325.21
EBIT 187.45328.27392.76401.16413.45736.531,001.091,360.691,849.452,513.77
Tax Rate 22.56%22.36%22.81%24.31%21.02%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.61%22.61%
EBIAT 145.17254.88303.18303.65326.54570.00774.741,053.031,431.281,945.40
Depreciation 58.2589.81140.16160.91118.65237.75323.15439.23597.00811.44
Accounts Receivable --335.28-320.52-615.47-61.48122.31-438.95-596.62-810.92-1,102.20
Inventories --124.45-8.57-340.32275.76-935.73-615.12-836.07-1,136.39-1,544.58
Accounts Payable -55.05152.19522.67-47.151,246.351,052.281,430.251,944.002,642.29
Capital Expenditure -379.29-243.64-26.77147.36476.03357.73486.22660.87898.26
UFCF 203.42319.3022.814.66759.691,716.711,453.831,976.052,685.843,650.60
WACC
PV UFCF 1,716.711,230.811,416.281,629.711,875.30
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 18.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,781.06
Terminal Value 26,778.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 11,645.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt -1,833.61
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 19.14
Equity Value Per Share -