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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 438,255.00411,959.70249,276.81208,146.14244,405.20290,255.61275,278.42261,074.06247,602.64234,826.34222,709.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 74,021.2768,138.1339,934.1530,202.0039,031.5149,894.9444,540.0542,241.7840,062.1137,994.9036,034.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 56,841.6750,835.8321,886.507,888.7419,136.9331,144.4325,876.1724,540.9623,274.6522,073.6820,934.67
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17,179.6017,302.3118,047.6422,313.2719,894.5818,750.5118,663.8817,700.8216,787.4615,921.2315,099.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,908.464,655.143,714.223,663.373,177.273,047.683,606.153,420.073,243.593,076.232,917.49
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 33,132.0828,013.2619,867.3621,397.4225,589.2224,700.7523,673.9422,452.3721,293.8320,195.0719,153.00
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 16,127.7816,684.3716,252.8515,069.7816,986.1618,953.6916,048.7315,220.6214,435.2313,690.3812,983.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48,076.5742,225.8732,405.9931,201.1136,807.4237,268.8235,373.2833,548.0231,816.9430,175.1828,618.15
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33,657.98-32,956.78-26,498.13-16,172.96-15,397.53-19,563.23-21,609.36-20,494.31-19,436.81-18,433.87-17,482.68
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 68.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4,233.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.52
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.79
Total Debt 20,538.00
Total Equity 290,650.86
Total Capital 311,188.86
Debt Weighting 6.60
Equity Weighting 93.40
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 438,255.00411,959.70249,276.81208,146.14244,405.20290,255.61275,278.42261,074.06247,602.64234,826.34222,709.30
EBITDA 74,021.2768,138.1339,934.1530,202.0039,031.5149,894.9444,540.0542,241.7840,062.1137,994.9036,034.36
EBIT 56,841.6750,835.8321,886.507,888.7419,136.9331,144.4325,876.1724,540.9623,274.6522,073.6820,934.67
Tax Rate 42.68%35.65%25.11%-5.46%-6.33%31.38%20.51%20.51%20.51%20.51%20.51%
EBIAT 32,579.2432,713.5916,390.778,319.5720,348.9921,370.0120,570.1719,508.7518,502.1017,547.3916,641.95
Depreciation 17,179.6017,302.3118,047.6422,313.2719,894.5818,750.5118,663.8817,700.8216,787.4615,921.2315,099.69
Accounts Receivable -5,118.828,145.90-1,530.06-4,191.80888.471,026.811,221.581,158.541,098.761,042.07
Inventories --556.58431.521,183.07-1,916.38-1,967.532,904.96828.11785.38744.86706.42
Accounts Payable --5,850.70-9,819.88-1,204.885,606.32461.40-1,895.54-1,825.26-1,731.08-1,641.75-1,557.04
Capital Expenditure --701.21-6,458.65-10,325.17-775.434,165.702,046.13-1,115.04-1,057.51-1,002.94-951.19
UFCF 49,758.8448,026.2226,737.3018,755.8038,966.2843,668.5643,316.4036,318.9634,444.9032,667.5430,981.90
WACC
PV UFCF 39,605.3830,362.4626,328.7522,830.9319,797.80
SUM PV UFCF 250,774.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 32,221.17
Terminal Value 600,021.88
Present Value of Terminal Value 383,421.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 634,195.45
Net Debt 17,490.32
Equity Value 616,705.14
Shares Outstanding 4,233.81
Equity Value Per Share 145.66