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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Exxon Mobil Corporation

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 438,255.00411,959.70249,276.81208,146.14244,405.20290,255.61275,278.42261,074.06247,602.64234,826.34222,709.30
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 74,021.2768,138.1339,934.1530,202.0039,031.5149,894.9444,154.6641,876.2839,715.4637,666.1435,722.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 56,841.6750,835.8321,886.507,888.7419,136.9331,144.4323,921.6922,687.3421,516.6720,406.4119,353.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17,179.6017,302.3118,047.6422,313.2719,894.5818,750.5120,232.9619,188.9418,198.7917,259.7416,369.13
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,908.464,655.143,714.223,663.373,177.273,047.683,688.733,498.393,317.883,146.672,984.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 33,132.0828,013.2619,867.3621,397.4225,589.2224,700.7524,252.0323,000.6221,813.7920,688.2019,620.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 16,127.7816,684.3716,252.8515,069.7816,986.1618,953.6917,232.4316,343.2415,499.9214,700.1313,941.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 48,076.5742,225.8732,405.9931,201.1136,807.4237,268.8236,419.3434,540.1032,757.8331,067.5229,464.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33,657.98-32,956.78-26,498.13-16,172.96-15,397.53-19,563.23-21,719.47-20,598.74-19,535.85-18,527.80-17,571.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 68.41
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.38
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.52
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.79
Total Debt 20,538.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 20,538.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 438,255.00411,959.70249,276.81208,146.14244,405.20290,255.61275,278.42261,074.06247,602.64234,826.34222,709.30
EBITDA 74,021.2768,138.1339,934.1530,202.0039,031.5149,894.9444,154.6641,876.2839,715.4637,666.1435,722.57
EBIT 56,841.6750,835.8321,886.507,888.7419,136.9331,144.4323,921.6922,687.3421,516.6720,406.4119,353.44
Tax Rate 42.68%35.65%25.11%-5.46%-6.33%31.38%20.51%20.51%20.51%20.51%20.51%
EBIAT 32,579.2432,713.5916,390.778,319.5720,348.9921,370.0119,016.4718,035.2217,104.6016,222.0015,384.95
Depreciation 17,179.6017,302.3118,047.6422,313.2719,894.5818,750.5120,232.9619,188.9418,198.7917,259.7416,369.13
Accounts Receivable -5,118.828,145.90-1,530.06-4,191.80888.47448.721,251.401,186.831,125.591,067.51
Inventories --556.58431.521,183.07-1,916.38-1,967.531,721.26889.19843.31799.80758.53
Accounts Payable --5,850.70-9,819.88-1,204.885,606.32461.40-849.49-1,879.24-1,782.27-1,690.30-1,603.08
Capital Expenditure --701.21-6,458.65-10,325.17-775.434,165.702,156.24-1,120.72-1,062.90-1,008.05-956.03
UFCF 49,758.8448,026.2226,737.3018,755.8038,966.2843,668.5642,726.1736,364.8034,488.3732,708.7731,021.00
WACC
PV UFCF 41,309.2633,992.8931,169.7428,581.0526,207.35
SUM PV UFCF 333,863.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 32,261.84
Terminal Value -5,659,972.15
Present Value of Terminal Value -4,781,692.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,447,829.40
Net Debt 17,490.32
Equity Value -4,465,319.72
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.43 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.93 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.43 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
3.93 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
3.43 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
2.93 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
2.43 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.93 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.43 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy