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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)

Consumer Cyclical

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,326.315,831.776,385.216,991.167,654.63
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 528.80681.97683.25355.28468.20621.70715.32783.21857.53938.911,028.02
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -199.95-252.66-257.46-258.85-216.64-287.50-314.78-344.66-377.37-413.18-452.39
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 328.85429.31425.7996.43251.56334.20400.54438.55480.17525.74575.63

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 753.47
Diluted Shares Outstanding 27.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 34.23
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.66
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.76
Total Debt -
Total Equity 20,963.80
Total Capital 20,963.80
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,326.315,831.776,385.216,991.167,654.63
Operating Cash Flow 528.80681.97683.25355.28468.20621.70715.32783.21857.53938.911,028.02
Capital Expenditure -199.95-252.66-257.46-258.85-216.64-287.50-314.78-344.66-377.37-413.18-452.39
Free Cash Flow 328.85429.31425.7996.43251.56334.20400.54438.55480.17525.74575.63
WACC
PV LFCF 371.69377.66383.73389.89396.14
SUM PV LFCF 2,698.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 839.93
Terminal Value 22,338.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,373.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,121.35
Net Debt -706.83
Equity Value 19,828.18
Shares Outstanding 27.82
Equity Value Per Share 516.22