Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)

$1244.5
15.22 (+1.24%)

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 3,214.604,108.304,501.223,904.384,476.414,864.995,586.376,166.106,805.997,512.288,291.889,152.37
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 528.80682.10683.32349.24468.22621.55721.63822.13907.451,001.621,105.571,220.30
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -199.90-252.60-257.42-258.84-216.78-287.39-333.91-365.06-402.94-444.76-490.91-541.85
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 328.90429.50425.9090.40251.44334.16387.72457.08504.51556.87614.66678.44

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,244.5
Beta 1.278
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.636
Total Debt -
Total Equity 35,213.13
Total Capital 35,213.13
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 3,214.604,108.304,501.223,904.384,476.414,864.995,586.376,166.106,805.997,512.288,291.889,152.37
Operating Cash Flow 528.80682.10683.32349.24468.22621.55721.63822.13907.451,001.621,105.571,220.30
Capital Expenditure -199.90-252.60-257.42-258.84-216.78-287.39-333.91-365.06-402.94-444.76-490.91-541.85
Free Cash Flow 328.90429.50425.9090.40251.44334.16387.72457.08504.51556.87614.66678.44
WACC
PV LFCF 405.79397.64389.65381.82374.15
SUM PV LFCF 1,949.05

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 705.58
Terminal Value 8,166.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,503.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,452.74
Net Debt -480.63
Equity Value 6,933.37
Shares Outstanding 28.30
Equity Value Per Share 245.04