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Major Indexes

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG)

$1055.7
28.99 (+2.82%)

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,586.086,165.916,805.947,512.398,292.18
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 528.80681.97683.25349.42467.31621.70721.72821.92907.231,001.401,105.35
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure 199.95252.66257.46258.85216.64287.50334.05365.02402.91444.73490.90
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 728.75934.63940.71608.27683.95909.201,055.771,186.941,310.141,446.141,596.24

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,055.7
Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.59
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.13
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.09
Total Debt 2,678.37
Total Equity 29,871.03
Total Capital 32,549.41
Debt Weighting 8.23
Equity Weighting 91.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,214.594,108.254,501.003,904.164,476.124,864.655,586.086,165.916,805.947,512.398,292.18
Operating Cash Flow 528.80681.97683.25349.42467.31621.70721.72821.92907.231,001.401,105.35
Capital Expenditure 199.95252.66257.46258.85216.64287.50334.05365.02402.91444.73490.90
Free Cash Flow 728.75934.63940.71608.27683.95909.201,055.771,186.941,310.141,446.141,596.24
WACC
PV LFCF 880.89902.47924.59947.24
SUM PV LFCF 7,076.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 850.95
Terminal Value 22,752.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,672.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,343.75
Net Debt 1,797.45
Equity Value 17,546.30
Shares Outstanding 28.30
Equity Value Per Share 1,267.19