Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ballard Power Systems Inc (BLDP)

$ 14.7
0.32 (+2.23%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 61.2568.7256.4685.27121.2996.59106.33103.88115.01127.34140.99156.10172.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -13.98-16.44-20.27-11.590.74-15.52-18.27-33.60-23.18-25.67-28.42-31.46-34.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -19.71-22.05-24.65-16.14-4.32-20.54-25.79-41.16-30.99-34.31-37.99-42.06-46.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.735.614.374.545.065.027.517.567.818.649.5710.6011.73
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 30.3023.6740.0572.6360.25192.24147.79765.43196.18217.21240.49266.27294.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 15.4713.1525.4814.9223.0838.5249.3256.7938.3842.5047.0552.1057.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 14.0912.5420.3717.2317.2929.3130.1028.5228.4531.5034.8838.6142.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.706.039.035.9713.186.9214.889.0711.7713.0314.4215.9717.68
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.49-4.24-3.89-6.88-6.44-9.85-13.93-12.87-9.05-10.02-11.09-12.28-13.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.7
Beta 1.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding 248.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.737
Total Debt 17.87
Total Equity 3,652.67
Total Capital 3,670.54
Debt Weighting 0.49
Equity Weighting 99.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 61.2568.7256.4685.27121.2996.59106.33103.88115.01127.34140.99156.10172.83
EBITDA -13.98-16.44-20.27-11.590.74-15.52-18.27-33.60-23.18-25.67-28.42-31.46-34.83
EBIT -19.71-22.05-24.65-16.14-4.32-20.54-25.79-41.16-30.99-34.31-37.99-42.06-46.57
Tax Rate 6.00%4.99%8.61%-1.79%-24.26%-1.37%-0.05%-4.13%-1.50%-1.50%-1.50%-1.50%-1.50%
EBIAT -18.53-20.95-22.53-16.43-5.37-20.82-25.80-42.86-31.45-34.82-38.56-42.69-47.27
Depreciation 5.735.614.374.545.065.027.517.567.818.649.5710.6011.73
Accounts Receivable -2.32-12.3410.56-8.16-15.44-10.79-7.4818.41-4.11-4.56-5.04-5.58
Inventories -1.55-7.833.14-0.06-12.02-0.791.580.07-3.05-3.38-3.74-4.14
Accounts Payable -0.333-3.067.21-6.267.96-5.812.701.261.401.551.71
Capital Expenditure -0.48-4.24-3.89-6.88-6.44-9.85-13.93-12.87-9.05-10.02-11.09-12.28-13.59
UFCF -13.28-15.37-39.21-8.12-7.76-59.38-35.84-59.88-11.51-42.10-46.61-51.61-57.14
WACC
PV UFCF -8.46-26.50-25.15-23.86-22.64
SUM PV UFCF -124.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 16.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) -59.42
Terminal Value -468.64
Present Value of Terminal Value -216.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -341.09
Net Debt -745.56
Equity Value 404.47
Shares Outstanding 248.48
Equity Value Per Share 1.63