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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Fair Isaac Corproation

Fair Isaac Corproation (FICO)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 195.45194.33172.29202.81213.30249.47260.06277.78296.69316.90338.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 162.22161.67138.40171.17177.13219.32217.71232.54248.38265.29283.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.2332.6733.8931.6436.1730.1542.3545.2448.3251.6155.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 83.19105.1086.1575.89105.6390.04116.58124.52133.00142.05151.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 143.71155.28158.79167.82168.55266.72222.24237.37253.53270.80289.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.1822.0119.8822.9219.4820.2426.4728.2730.2032.2534.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.16-12.62-25.00-21.95-19.86-31.29-28.45-30.39-32.46-34.67-37.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 301.5
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.25
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.16
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.82
Total Debt 528.94
Total Equity 8,957.87
Total Capital 9,486.81
Debt Weighting 5.58
Equity Weighting 94.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
EBITDA 195.45194.33172.29202.81213.30249.47260.06277.78296.69316.90338.48
EBIT 162.22161.67138.40171.17177.13219.32217.71232.54248.38265.29283.36
Tax Rate 31.74%28.73%20.81%24.29%15.24%24.25%24.18%24.18%24.18%24.18%24.18%
EBIAT 110.73115.22109.60129.59150.13166.13165.07176.31188.32201.15214.84
Depreciation 33.2332.6733.8931.6436.1730.1542.3545.2448.3251.6155.12
Accounts Receivable --11.57-3.51-9.04-0.73-98.1644.48-15.13-16.16-17.27-18.44
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -2.83-2.133.04-3.430.756.231.801.932.062.20
Capital Expenditure --11.5412.37-3.05-2.0911.43-2.831.942.072.212.36
UFCF 143.97127.61150.22152.18180.05110.31255.30210.16224.47239.75256.08
WACC
PV UFCF 225.41163.83154.50145.70137.40
SUM PV UFCF 963.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 266.32
Terminal Value 2,876.08
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,543.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,506.22
Net Debt 438.90
Equity Value 2,067.31
Shares Outstanding 29.71
Equity Value Per Share 69.58