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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Fair Isaac Corproation

Fair Isaac Corproation (FICO)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 195.45194.33172.29202.81213.30249.47260.06277.78296.69316.90338.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 162.22161.67138.40171.17177.13219.32217.71232.54248.38265.29283.36
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 33.2332.6733.8931.6436.1730.1542.3545.2448.3251.6155.12
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 83.19105.1086.1575.89105.6390.04116.58124.52133.00142.05151.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 143.71155.28158.79167.82168.55266.72222.24237.37253.53270.80289.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19.1822.0119.8822.9219.4820.2426.4728.2730.2032.2534.45
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.16-12.62-25.00-21.95-19.86-31.29-28.45-30.39-32.46-34.67-37.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 350.29
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.25
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.16
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.82
Total Debt 528.94
Total Equity 10,922.04
Total Capital 11,450.99
Debt Weighting 4.62
Equity Weighting 95.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 743.44789.02838.80881.42932.271,032.591,102.901,178.011,258.241,343.921,435.44
EBITDA 195.45194.33172.29202.81213.30249.47260.06277.78296.69316.90338.48
EBIT 162.22161.67138.40171.17177.13219.32217.71232.54248.38265.29283.36
Tax Rate 31.74%28.73%20.81%24.29%15.24%24.25%24.18%24.18%24.18%24.18%24.18%
EBIAT 110.73115.22109.60129.59150.13166.13165.07176.31188.32201.15214.84
Depreciation 33.2332.6733.8931.6436.1730.1542.3545.2448.3251.6155.12
Accounts Receivable --11.57-3.51-9.04-0.73-98.1644.48-15.13-16.16-17.27-18.44
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -2.83-2.133.04-3.430.756.231.801.932.062.20
Capital Expenditure --11.5412.37-3.05-2.0911.43-2.831.942.072.212.36
UFCF 143.97127.61150.22152.18180.05110.31255.30210.16224.47239.75256.08
WACC
PV UFCF 198.67144.27135.93128.08120.68
SUM PV UFCF 958.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) 266.32
Terminal Value 2,845.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,519.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,478.40
Net Debt 438.90
Equity Value 2,039.50
Shares Outstanding 31.18
Equity Value Per Share 65.41

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
15.36 (%) 46.64 Sell 49.06 Sell 51.84 Sell 55.07 Sell 58.88 Sell 63.42 Sell 68.92 Sell 75.75 Sell 84.43 Sell
14.86 (%) 45.05 Sell 47.27 Sell 49.82 Sell 52.76 Sell 56.20 Sell 60.28 Sell 65.17 Sell 71.18 Sell 78.71 Sell
14.36 (%) 43.57 Sell 45.62 Sell 47.96 Sell 50.65 Sell 53.77 Sell 57.44 Sell 61.81 Sell 67.13 Sell 73.71 Sell
13.86 (%) 42.20 Sell 44.09 Sell 46.24 Sell 48.70 Sell 51.54 Sell 54.86 Sell 58.79 Sell 63.52 Sell 69.31 Sell
13.36 (%) 40.92 Sell 42.68 Sell 44.65 Sell 46.91 Sell 49.50 Sell 52.51 Sell 56.06 Sell 60.28 Sell 65.41 Sell
12.86 (%) 39.73 Sell 41.35 Sell 43.18 Sell 45.26 Sell 47.63 Sell 50.37 Sell 53.57 Sell 57.37 Sell 61.93 Sell
12.36 (%) 38.62 Sell 40.12 Sell 41.81 Sell 43.73 Sell 45.90 Sell 48.40 Sell 51.31 Sell 54.73 Sell 58.81 Sell
11.86 (%) 37.57 Sell 38.97 Sell 40.54 Sell 42.31 Sell 44.31 Sell 46.60 Sell 49.25 Sell 52.34 Sell 56.00 Sell
11.36 (%) 36.60 Sell 37.90 Sell 39.36 Sell 40.99 Sell 42.83 Sell 44.94 Sell 47.35 Sell 50.16 Sell 53.46 Sell