Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)

$ 2356.74
2.49 (+0.11%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 59,82566,00174,98990,272110,855136,819161,857182,527214,238.47251,459.35295,146.84346,424.40406,610.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17,90521,47524,42329,86033,09336,55946,01254,92165,129.2976,444.5789,725.73105,314.30123,611.16
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 13,96616,49619,36023,71626,17827,52434,23141,22450,317.3759,059.3069,320.0181,363.3895,499.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,9394,9795,0636,1446,9159,03511,78113,69714,811.9217,385.2820,405.7223,950.9228,112.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 58,71764,39573,06686,333101,871109,140119,675136,694189,943.98222,944.05261,677.40307,140.13360,501.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9,39011,55613,90914,23218,70521,19327,49231,38435,901.3042,138.6449,459.6358,052.5468,138.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 426469.98533.98642.81789.37974.261,152.551,299.731,525.541,790.582,101.672,466.812,895.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2,4531,7151,9312,0413,1374,3785,5615,5896,443.807,563.328,877.3410,419.6512,229.91
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,358-10,959-9,915-10,212-13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-29,581.10-34,720.39-40,752.56-47,832.74-56,143
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,356.74
Beta 0.996
Diluted Shares Outstanding 680.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.19%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.385
Total Debt 26,772
Total Equity 1,604,455.84
Total Capital 1,631,227.84
Debt Weighting 1.64
Equity Weighting 98.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 59,82566,00174,98990,272110,855136,819161,857182,527214,238.47251,459.35295,146.84346,424.40406,610.71
EBITDA 17,90521,47524,42329,86033,09336,55946,01254,92165,129.2976,444.5789,725.73105,314.30123,611.16
EBIT 13,96616,49619,36023,71626,17827,52434,23141,22450,317.3759,059.3069,320.0181,363.3895,499.10
Tax Rate 10.87%16.31%16.81%19.35%53.44%11.96%13.33%16.25%19.79%19.79%19.79%19.79%19.79%
EBIAT 12,447.6213,805.4516,105.9119,127.9612,189.3824,231.0229,668.0234,525.3840,359.8047,371.7455,601.9165,261.9576,600.28
Depreciation 3,9394,9795,0636,1446,9159,03511,78113,69714,811.9217,385.2820,405.7223,950.9228,112.06
Accounts Receivable --2,166-2,353-323-4,473-2,488-6,299-3,892-4,517.30-6,237.34-7,320.99-8,592.91-10,085.80
Inventories --43.98-64-108.83-146.57-184.88-178.29-147.19-225.81-265.04-311.09-365.14-428.57
Accounts Payable --7382161101,0961,2411,18328854.801,119.521,314.021,542.311,810.27
Capital Expenditure -7,358-10,959-9,915-10,212-13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-29,581.10-34,720.39-40,752.56-47,832.74-56,143
UFCF 9,028.624,877.479,052.9114,738.132,396.816,695.1412,606.7321,930.1921,702.3124,653.7628,93733,964.4039,865.23
WACC
PV UFCF 17,844.8318,382.0119,564.4020,822.8522,162.24
SUM PV UFCF 108,930.54

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 41,459.84
Terminal Value 660,188.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 404,747.49

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 513,678.02
Net Debt 307
Equity Value 513,371.02
Shares Outstanding 680.79
Equity Value Per Share 754.08