Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

$9.43

-0.06 (-0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 19.07 | 9.43 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,2483,0343,6333,6033,8864,082.084,288.054,504.414,731.704,970.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 487367598670-2506.95532.53559.40587.62617.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 414281506586-92406.84427.37448.93471.59495.38
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7386928490100.11105.16110.46116.04121.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 187592423246259411.52432.28454.09477.01501.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 707873747803842939.34986.741,036.531,088.831,143.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 220235244270263289.80304.42319.78335.92352.87
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,0091,0191,0061,0481,0741,2171,278.411,342.911,410.671,481.85
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -102-80-72-91-83-101.40-106.52-111.89-117.54-123.47
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.43
Beta 1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding 166.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.78
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.534
Total Debt 1,692
Total Equity 1,570.99
Total Capital 3,262.99
Debt Weighting 51.85
Equity Weighting 48.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 3,2483,0343,6333,6033,8864,082.084,288.054,504.414,731.704,970.45
EBITDA 487367598670-2506.95532.53559.40587.62617.27
EBIT 414281506586-92406.84427.37448.93471.59495.38
Tax Rate 9.54%32.77%7.99%21.37%24.78%19.29%19.29%19.29%19.29%19.29%
EBIAT 374.51188.91465.56460.77-69.20328.36344.92362.33380.61399.81
Depreciation 7386928490100.11105.16110.46116.04121.89
Accounts Receivable --166126-56-39-97.34-47.40-49.79-52.30-54.94
Inventories --15-9-267-26.80-14.62-15.36-16.14-16.95
Accounts Payable -10-13422614361.4164.5167.7671.18
Capital Expenditure -102-80-72-91-83-101.40-106.52-111.89-117.54-123.47
UFCF 345.5123.91589.56413.77-68.20345.91342.95360.25378.43397.53
WACC
PV UFCF 318.11290.04280.18270.66261.47
SUM PV UFCF 1,420.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 399.51
Terminal Value 4,848.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,189.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,609.48
Net Debt 1,433
Equity Value 3,176.48
Shares Outstanding 166.60
Equity Value Per Share 19.07