Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)
$9.43
-0.06 (-0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,248 | 3,034 | 3,633 | 3,603 | 3,886 | 4,082.08 | 4,288.05 | 4,504.41 | 4,731.70 | 4,970.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 487 | 367 | 598 | 670 | -2 | 506.95 | 532.53 | 559.40 | 587.62 | 617.27 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 414 | 281 | 506 | 586 | -92 | 406.84 | 427.37 | 448.93 | 471.59 | 495.38 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 73 | 86 | 92 | 84 | 90 | 100.11 | 105.16 | 110.46 | 116.04 | 121.89 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 187 | 592 | 423 | 246 | 259 | 411.52 | 432.28 | 454.09 | 477.01 | 501.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 707 | 873 | 747 | 803 | 842 | 939.34 | 986.74 | 1,036.53 | 1,088.83 | 1,143.77 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 220 | 235 | 244 | 270 | 263 | 289.80 | 304.42 | 319.78 | 335.92 | 352.87 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1,009 | 1,019 | 1,006 | 1,048 | 1,074 | 1,217 | 1,278.41 | 1,342.91 | 1,410.67 | 1,481.85 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -102 | -80 | -72 | -91 | -83 | -101.40 | -106.52 | -111.89 | -117.54 | -123.47 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 9.43 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.309 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 166.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 24.78 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.07% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.534 |
Total Debt | 1,692 |
Total Equity | 1,570.99 |
Total Capital | 3,262.99 |
Debt Weighting | 51.85 |
Equity Weighting | 48.15 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 3,248 | 3,034 | 3,633 | 3,603 | 3,886 | 4,082.08 | 4,288.05 | 4,504.41 | 4,731.70 | 4,970.45 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 487 | 367 | 598 | 670 | -2 | 506.95 | 532.53 | 559.40 | 587.62 | 617.27 |
EBIT | 414 | 281 | 506 | 586 | -92 | 406.84 | 427.37 | 448.93 | 471.59 | 495.38 |
Tax Rate | 9.54% | 32.77% | 7.99% | 21.37% | 24.78% | 19.29% | 19.29% | 19.29% | 19.29% | 19.29% |
EBIAT | 374.51 | 188.91 | 465.56 | 460.77 | -69.20 | 328.36 | 344.92 | 362.33 | 380.61 | 399.81 |
Depreciation | 73 | 86 | 92 | 84 | 90 | 100.11 | 105.16 | 110.46 | 116.04 | 121.89 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -166 | 126 | -56 | -39 | -97.34 | -47.40 | -49.79 | -52.30 | -54.94 |
Inventories | - | -15 | -9 | -26 | 7 | -26.80 | -14.62 | -15.36 | -16.14 | -16.95 |
Accounts Payable | - | 10 | -13 | 42 | 26 | 143 | 61.41 | 64.51 | 67.76 | 71.18 |
Capital Expenditure | -102 | -80 | -72 | -91 | -83 | -101.40 | -106.52 | -111.89 | -117.54 | -123.47 |
UFCF | 345.51 | 23.91 | 589.56 | 413.77 | -68.20 | 345.91 | 342.95 | 360.25 | 378.43 | 397.53 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 318.11 | 290.04 | 280.18 | 270.66 | 261.47 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 1,420.46 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.74 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 399.51 |
Terminal Value | 4,848.46 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,189.02 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 4,609.48 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,433 |
Equity Value | 3,176.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 166.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | 19.07 |