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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Illumina Inc.

Illumina Inc. (ILMN)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,421.181,861.322,437.773,192.744,181.545,476.567,172.659,394.0212,303.3416,113.6921,104.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 268.32665.42665.75871.941,141.981,495.651,958.852,565.513,360.044,400.655,763.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 134.16514.84451.96591.93775.261,015.351,329.811,741.652,281.042,987.483,912.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 134.16150.58213.79280.00366.72480.29629.04823.861,079.001,413.171,850.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,165.651,338.291,876.112,457.133,218.114,214.765,520.077,229.639,468.6512,401.0916,241.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 238.90289.43394.43516.59676.57886.111,160.531,519.951,990.682,607.193,414.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 154.06191.16257.43337.15441.57578.32757.43992.011,299.231,701.612,228.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 73.6282.64117.26153.57201.13263.42345.00451.85591.79775.071,015.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 79.16105.91137.25179.75235.42308.33403.82528.88692.68907.201,188.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 276.74
Diluted Shares Outstanding 149.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.75
Total Debt 890.00
Total Equity 41,234.26
Total Capital 42,124.26
Debt Weighting 2.11
Equity Weighting 97.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,421.181,861.322,437.773,192.744,181.545,476.567,172.659,394.0212,303.3416,113.6921,104.10
EBITDA 268.32665.42665.75871.941,141.981,495.651,958.852,565.513,360.044,400.655,763.53
EBIT 134.16514.84451.96591.93775.261,015.351,329.811,741.652,281.042,987.483,912.70
Tax Rate 333.34%21.26%82.69%20.85%30.39%7.61%82.69%82.69%82.69%82.69%82.69%
EBIAT -313.04405.3878.24468.52539.63938.12230.20301.50394.87517.17677.33
Depreciation 134.16150.58213.79280.00366.72480.29629.04823.861,079.001,413.171,850.83
Accounts Receivable --50.53-105.00-122.16-159.99-209.53-274.43-359.42-470.73-616.51-807.45
Inventories --37.10-66.27-79.73-104.42-136.75-179.11-234.58-307.22-402.37-526.99
Accounts Payable -9.0334.6136.3147.5662.2981.58106.85139.94183.28240.04
Capital Expenditure --26.75-31.34-42.51-55.67-72.91-95.49-125.06-163.80-214.52-280.96
UFCF -178.88450.60124.04540.45633.841,061.51391.80513.15672.07880.201,152.80
WACC
PV UFCF 167.91661.34701.161,061.51354.19419.35496.49587.83695.96
SUM PV UFCF 3,014.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.62
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,198.92
Terminal Value 18,110.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,933.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,948.43
Net Debt -3,324.76
Equity Value 17,273.18
Shares Outstanding 149.00
Equity Value Per Share 115.93