Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Illumina Inc.

Illumina Inc. (ILMN)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,421.181,861.322,437.773,192.744,181.545,476.567,172.659,394.0212,303.3416,113.6921,104.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 296.88603.07649.66850.871,114.381,459.501,911.512,503.513,278.844,294.305,624.24
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 198.96490.46491.94644.30843.831,105.171,447.441,895.712,482.813,251.744,258.81
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 97.92112.61157.72206.57270.55354.33464.07607.79796.031,042.561,365.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,165.651,338.291,876.112,457.133,218.114,214.765,520.077,229.639,468.6512,401.0916,241.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 238.90289.43394.43516.59676.57886.111,160.531,519.951,990.682,607.193,414.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 154.06191.16257.43337.15441.57578.32757.43992.011,299.231,701.612,228.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 73.6282.64117.26153.57201.13263.42345.00451.85591.79775.071,015.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -90.53-142.20-170.89-223.81-293.13-383.91-502.80-658.52-862.46-1,129.57-1,479.40
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 302.74
Diluted Shares Outstanding 149.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 11.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.55
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.82
Total Debt 890.00
Total Equity 45,108.26
Total Capital 45,998.26
Debt Weighting 1.93
Equity Weighting 98.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,421.181,861.322,437.773,192.744,181.545,476.567,172.659,394.0212,303.3416,113.6921,104.10
EBITDA 296.88603.07649.66850.871,114.381,459.501,911.512,503.513,278.844,294.305,624.24
EBIT 198.96490.46491.94644.30843.831,105.171,447.441,895.712,482.813,251.744,258.81
Tax Rate 21.35%21.26%21.86%21.29%33.46%11.94%21.86%21.86%21.86%21.86%21.86%
EBIAT 156.50386.18384.41507.09561.52973.211,131.041,481.321,940.092,540.943,327.86
Depreciation 97.92112.61157.72206.57270.55354.33464.07607.79796.031,042.561,365.44
Accounts Receivable --50.53-105.00-122.16-159.99-209.53-274.43-359.42-470.73-616.51-807.45
Inventories --37.10-66.27-79.73-104.42-136.75-179.11-234.58-307.22-402.37-526.99
Accounts Payable -9.0334.6136.3147.5662.2981.58106.85139.94183.28240.04
Capital Expenditure -51.6828.6852.9269.3190.78118.90155.72203.94267.11349.83
UFCF 254.41471.86434.16601.02684.541,134.321,342.051,757.692,302.053,014.993,948.73
WACC
PV UFCF 604.75749.62764.501,134.321,201.701,409.261,652.681,938.142,272.90
SUM PV UFCF 6,650.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,106.68
Terminal Value 53,472.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 30,778.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 37,429.58
Net Debt -3,324.76
Equity Value 40,754.34
Shares Outstanding 149.00
Equity Value Per Share 273.52