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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Lockheed Martin Corporation

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 45,358.0039,946.7940,538.0047,291.6349,963.6153,765.8455,857.3358,030.1860,287.5662,632.7465,069.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,524.606,371.516,246.918,143.627,164.787,667.018,317.168,640.698,976.829,326.029,688.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,535.805,376.845,221.296,928.225,970.656,505.676,982.177,253.777,535.947,829.098,133.64
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 988.80994.681,025.611,215.401,194.131,161.341,334.991,386.921,440.871,496.921,555.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,617.161,446.071,090.471,834.922,862.91774.232,150.512,234.162,321.072,411.362,505.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,833.045,876.177,252.258,200.372,263.352,446.356,691.716,952.027,222.457,503.407,795.29
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,975.482,804.264,819.974,667.682,877.902,994.764,345.704,514.754,690.374,872.835,062.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7,747.157,338.238,448.128,427.371,468.932,403.337,591.017,886.308,193.088,511.798,842.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -834.59-846.87-940.48-1,064.06-1,179.14-1,279.63-1,234.45-1,282.47-1,332.36-1,384.18-1,438.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 386.98
Diluted Shares Outstanding 284.43
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.57
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.63
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.47
Total Debt 12,604.00
Total Equity 110,067.05
Total Capital 122,671.05
Debt Weighting 10.27
Equity Weighting 89.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 45,358.0039,946.7940,538.0047,291.6349,963.6153,765.8455,857.3358,030.1860,287.5662,632.7465,069.16
EBITDA 5,524.606,371.516,246.918,143.627,164.787,667.018,317.168,640.698,976.829,326.029,688.80
EBIT 4,535.805,376.845,221.296,928.225,970.656,505.676,982.177,253.777,535.947,829.098,133.64
Tax Rate 28.79%28.27%24.55%17.44%63.09%13.57%29.28%29.28%29.28%29.28%29.28%
EBIAT 3,230.113,857.063,939.475,719.712,203.495,623.094,937.495,129.565,329.105,536.405,751.76
Depreciation 988.80994.681,025.611,215.401,194.131,161.341,334.991,386.921,440.871,496.921,555.15
Accounts Receivable --43.13-1,376.08-948.125,937.02-182.99-4,245.36-260.31-270.43-280.95-291.88
Inventories -171.22-2,015.70152.281,789.78-116.85-1,350.94-169.05-175.62-182.46-189.55
Accounts Payable --408.921,109.89-20.75-6,958.44934.405,187.68295.29306.78318.71331.11
Capital Expenditure -12.2893.61123.58115.08100.49-45.1848.0249.8951.8353.84
UFCF 4,218.914,583.192,776.806,242.104,281.067,519.475,818.676,430.436,680.586,940.457,210.43
WACC
PV UFCF 5,297.415,329.905,041.184,768.104,509.82
SUM PV UFCF 35,188.00

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,498.85
Terminal Value 128,404.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 80,311.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 115,499.78
Net Debt 11,829.77
Equity Value 103,670.01
Shares Outstanding 284.43
Equity Value Per Share 364.49