Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Microsoft Corp

Microsoft Corp (MSFT)

$214.24
-1.13 (-0.52%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77,849.0086,833.0093,580.0085,320.0089,950.00110,360.00125,843.00143,015.00156,555.63171,378.28187,604.33205,366.66224,810.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30,713.0032,929.0033,862.0027,719.0031,159.0045,260.0054,584.0065,715.0060,865.6266,628.3672,936.7279,842.3587,401.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26,958.0027,717.0027,905.0021,097.0022,381.0034,999.0042,902.0052,919.0048,685.6653,295.2158,341.1963,864.9169,911.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,755.005,212.005,957.006,622.008,778.0010,261.0011,682.0012,796.0012,179.9613,333.1514,595.5315,977.4317,490.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 77,022.0085,709.0096,526.00113,240.00132,981.00133,768.00133,819.00136,527.00176,979.50193,735.87212,078.74232,158.30254,139.00
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 17,486.0019,544.0017,908.0018,277.0019,792.0026,481.0029,524.0032,011.0034,710.2737,996.6341,594.1545,532.2749,843.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,938.002,660.002,902.002,251.002,181.002,662.002,063.001,895.003,736.464,090.234,477.494,901.425,365.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,828.007,432.006,591.006,898.007,390.008,617.009,382.0012,530.0012,158.3313,309.4814,569.6215,949.0717,459.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,257.00-5,485.00-5,944.00-8,343.00-8,129.00-11,632.00-13,925.00-15,441.00-13,572.34-14,857.36-16,264.05-17,803.93-19,489.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 214.24
Beta 0.855
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7,683.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.267
Total Debt 70,998.00
Total Equity 1,646,005.92
Total Capital 1,717,003.92
Debt Weighting 4.13
Equity Weighting 95.87
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77,849.0086,833.0093,580.0085,320.0089,950.00110,360.00125,843.00143,015.00156,555.63171,378.28187,604.33205,366.66224,810.73
EBITDA 30,713.0032,929.0033,862.0027,719.0031,159.0045,260.0054,584.0065,715.0060,865.6266,628.3672,936.7279,842.3587,401.80
EBIT 26,958.0027,717.0027,905.0021,097.0022,381.0034,999.0042,902.0052,919.0048,685.6653,295.2158,341.1963,864.9169,911.63
Tax Rate 19.18%20.65%34.12%14.95%8.40%54.57%10.18%16.51%22.32%22.32%22.32%22.32%22.32%
EBIAT 21,787.0321,992.2718,384.7017,942.7620,500.5315,900.8738,534.0344,183.3137,818.8741,399.5645,319.2649,610.0754,307.14
Depreciation 3,755.005,212.005,957.006,622.008,778.0010,261.0011,682.0012,796.0012,179.9613,333.1514,595.5315,977.4317,490.17
Accounts Receivable --2,058.001,636.00-369.00-1,515.00-6,689.00-3,043.00-2,487.00-2,699.27-3,286.36-3,597.51-3,938.12-4,310.98
Inventories --722.00-242.00651.0070.00-481.00599.00168.00-1,841.46-353.77-387.26-423.93-464.07
Accounts Payable -2,604.00-841.00307.00492.001,227.00765.003,148.00-371.671,151.151,260.141,379.451,510.05
Capital Expenditure -4,257.00-5,485.00-5,944.00-8,343.00-8,129.00-11,632.00-13,925.00-15,441.00-13,572.34-14,857.36-16,264.05-17,803.93-19,489.60
UFCF 21,285.0321,543.2718,950.7016,810.7620,196.538,586.8734,612.0342,367.3131,514.0937,386.3740,926.1044,800.9749,042.72
WACC
PV UFCF 26,495.6028,821.5128,929.3329,037.5529,146.17
SUM PV UFCF 155,334.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51,004.42
Terminal Value 1,007,992.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 653,325.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 808,660.24
Net Debt 49,751.00
Equity Value 758,909.24
Shares Outstanding 7,683.00
Equity Value Per Share 98.78