Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Microsoft Corp (MSFT)
$231.6
4.87 (+2.15%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 77,849.00 | 86,833.00 | 93,580.00 | 85,320.00 | 89,950.00 | 110,360.00 | 125,843.00 | 143,015.00 | 156,555.63 | 171,378.28 | 187,604.33 | 205,366.66 | 224,810.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 30,713.00 | 32,929.00 | 33,862.00 | 27,719.00 | 31,159.00 | 45,260.00 | 54,584.00 | 65,715.00 | 60,865.62 | 66,628.36 | 72,936.72 | 79,842.35 | 87,401.80 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||||
| EBIT | 26,958.00 | 27,717.00 | 27,905.00 | 21,097.00 | 22,381.00 | 34,999.00 | 42,902.00 | 52,919.00 | 48,685.66 | 53,295.21 | 58,341.19 | 63,864.91 | 69,911.63 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3,755.00 | 5,212.00 | 5,957.00 | 6,622.00 | 8,778.00 | 10,261.00 | 11,682.00 | 12,796.00 | 12,179.96 | 13,333.15 | 14,595.53 | 15,977.43 | 17,490.17 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 77,022.00 | 85,709.00 | 96,526.00 | 113,240.00 | 132,981.00 | 133,768.00 | 133,819.00 | 136,527.00 | 176,979.50 | 193,735.87 | 212,078.74 | 232,158.30 | 254,139.00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 17,486.00 | 19,544.00 | 17,908.00 | 18,277.00 | 19,792.00 | 26,481.00 | 29,524.00 | 32,011.00 | 34,710.27 | 37,996.63 | 41,594.15 | 45,532.27 | 49,843.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,938.00 | 2,660.00 | 2,902.00 | 2,251.00 | 2,181.00 | 2,662.00 | 2,063.00 | 1,895.00 | 3,736.46 | 4,090.23 | 4,477.49 | 4,901.42 | 5,365.49 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4,828.00 | 7,432.00 | 6,591.00 | 6,898.00 | 7,390.00 | 8,617.00 | 9,382.00 | 12,530.00 | 12,158.33 | 13,309.48 | 14,569.62 | 15,949.07 | 17,459.12 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,257.00 | -5,485.00 | -5,944.00 | -8,343.00 | -8,129.00 | -11,632.00 | -13,925.00 | -15,441.00 | -13,572.34 | -14,857.36 | -16,264.05 | -17,803.93 | -19,489.60 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 231.6 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.855 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7,683.00 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.51 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.267 |
| Total Debt | 63,327.00 |
| Total Equity | 1,779,382.80 |
| Total Capital | 1,842,709.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 3.44 |
| Equity Weighting | 96.56 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 77,849.00 | 86,833.00 | 93,580.00 | 85,320.00 | 89,950.00 | 110,360.00 | 125,843.00 | 143,015.00 | 156,555.63 | 171,378.28 | 187,604.33 | 205,366.66 | 224,810.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 30,713.00 | 32,929.00 | 33,862.00 | 27,719.00 | 31,159.00 | 45,260.00 | 54,584.00 | 65,715.00 | 60,865.62 | 66,628.36 | 72,936.72 | 79,842.35 | 87,401.80 |
| EBIT | 26,958.00 | 27,717.00 | 27,905.00 | 21,097.00 | 22,381.00 | 34,999.00 | 42,902.00 | 52,919.00 | 48,685.66 | 53,295.21 | 58,341.19 | 63,864.91 | 69,911.63 |
| Tax Rate | 19.18% | 20.65% | 34.12% | 14.95% | 8.40% | 54.57% | 10.18% | 16.51% | 22.32% | 22.32% | 22.32% | 22.32% | 22.32% |
| EBIAT | 21,787.03 | 21,992.27 | 18,384.70 | 17,942.76 | 20,500.53 | 15,900.87 | 38,534.03 | 44,183.31 | 37,818.87 | 41,399.56 | 45,319.26 | 49,610.07 | 54,307.14 |
| Depreciation | 3,755.00 | 5,212.00 | 5,957.00 | 6,622.00 | 8,778.00 | 10,261.00 | 11,682.00 | 12,796.00 | 12,179.96 | 13,333.15 | 14,595.53 | 15,977.43 | 17,490.17 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2,058.00 | 1,636.00 | -369.00 | -1,515.00 | -6,689.00 | -3,043.00 | -2,487.00 | -2,699.27 | -3,286.36 | -3,597.51 | -3,938.12 | -4,310.98 |
| Inventories | - | -722.00 | -242.00 | 651.00 | 70.00 | -481.00 | 599.00 | 168.00 | -1,841.46 | -353.77 | -387.26 | -423.93 | -464.07 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2,604.00 | -841.00 | 307.00 | 492.00 | 1,227.00 | 765.00 | 3,148.00 | -371.67 | 1,151.15 | 1,260.14 | 1,379.45 | 1,510.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,257.00 | -5,485.00 | -5,944.00 | -8,343.00 | -8,129.00 | -11,632.00 | -13,925.00 | -15,441.00 | -13,572.34 | -14,857.36 | -16,264.05 | -17,803.93 | -19,489.60 |
| UFCF | 21,285.03 | 21,543.27 | 18,950.70 | 16,810.76 | 20,196.53 | 8,586.87 | 34,612.03 | 42,367.31 | 31,514.09 | 37,386.37 | 40,926.10 | 44,800.97 | 49,042.72 |
| WACC | |||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 26,481.03 | 28,797.74 | 28,897.52 | 28,997.64 | 29,098.12 | ||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 155,204.58 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.09 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 51,004.42 |
| Terminal Value | 1,002,051.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 648,582.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 803,787.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 49,751.00 |
| Equity Value | 754,036.29 |
| Shares Outstanding | 7,683.00 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 98.14 |