Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
$ 299.56
0.98 0.33%
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 89,950 | 110,360 | 125,843 | 143,015 | 168,088 | 196,619.77 | 229,994.61 | 269,034.60 | 314,701.36 | 368,119.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 34,149 | 49,468 | 58,056 | 68,423 | 85,134 | 89,428.18 | 104,608 | 122,364.48 | 143,135 | 167,431.17 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 25,371 | 39,207 | 46,374 | 55,627 | 73,448 | 72,031.61 | 84,258.48 | 98,560.77 | 115,290.77 | 134,860.58 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 8,778 | 10,261 | 11,682 | 12,796 | 11,686 | 17,396.57 | 20,349.52 | 23,803.71 | 27,844.23 | 32,570.59 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 132,981 | 133,768 | 133,819 | 136,527 | 130,334 | 215,648.63 | 252,253.49 | 295,071.77 | 345,158.15 | 403,746.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 19,792 | 26,481 | 29,524 | 32,011 | 38,043 | 45,016.17 | 52,657.35 | 61,595.57 | 72,050.99 | 84,281.14 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,181 | 2,662 | 2,063 | 1,895 | 2,636 | 3,684.41 | 4,309.82 | 5,041.38 | 5,897.12 | 6,898.11 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 7,390 | 8,617 | 9,382 | 12,530 | 15,163 | 16,225.56 | 18,979.74 | 22,201.42 | 25,969.96 | 30,378.18 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8,129 | -11,632 | -13,925 | -15,441 | -20,622 | -21,120.11 | -24,705.11 | -28,898.63 | -33,803.97 | -39,541.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 299.56 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.779 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7,608 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 13.83 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.660 |
| Total Debt | 67,775 |
| Total Equity | 2,279,052.48 |
| Total Capital | 2,346,827.48 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 89,950 | 110,360 | 125,843 | 143,015 | 168,088 | 196,619.77 | 229,994.61 | 269,034.60 | 314,701.36 | 368,119.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 34,149 | 49,468 | 58,056 | 68,423 | 85,134 | 89,428.18 | 104,608 | 122,364.48 | 143,135 | 167,431.17 |
| EBIT | 25,371 | 39,207 | 46,374 | 55,627 | 73,448 | 72,031.61 | 84,258.48 | 98,560.77 | 115,290.77 | 134,860.58 |
| Tax Rate | 8.40% | 54.57% | 10.18% | 16.51% | 13.83% | 20.70% | 20.70% | 20.70% | 20.70% | 20.70% |
| EBIAT | 23,239.31 | 17,812.67 | 41,652.53 | 46,444.29 | 63,292.63 | 57,123.19 | 66,819.45 | 78,161.59 | 91,428.98 | 106,948.41 |
| Depreciation | 8,778 | 10,261 | 11,682 | 12,796 | 11,686 | 17,396.57 | 20,349.52 | 23,803.71 | 27,844.23 | 32,570.59 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6,689 | -3,043 | -2,487 | -6,032 | -6,973.16 | -7,641.18 | -8,938.22 | -10,455.42 | -12,230.15 |
| Inventories | - | -481 | 599 | 168 | -741 | -1,048.41 | -625.40 | -731.56 | -855.74 | -1,001 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1,227 | 765 | 3,148 | 2,633 | 1,062.56 | 2,754.18 | 3,221.68 | 3,768.54 | 4,408.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8,129 | -11,632 | -13,925 | -15,441 | -20,622 | -21,120.11 | -24,705.11 | -28,898.63 | -33,803.97 | -39,541.96 |
| UFCF | 23,888.31 | 10,498.67 | 37,730.53 | 44,628.29 | 50,216.63 | 46,440.63 | 56,951.46 | 66,618.57 | 77,926.61 | 91,154.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 50,402.02 | 56,951.46 | 61,382.63 | 66,158.58 | 71,306.13 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 259,960.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 94,800.28 |
| Terminal Value | 2,092,721.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,389,832.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,649,792.42 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 56,027 |
| Equity Value | 1,593,765.42 |
| Shares Outstanding | 7,608 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 209.49 |