Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

$ 257.89
0.65 (+0.25%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77,84986,83393,58085,32089,950110,360125,843143,015156,555.63171,378.28187,604.33205,366.66224,810.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30,51933,09834,12927,91431,41045,31954,64165,75561,034.9166,813.6873,139.5880,064.4287,644.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26,76427,88628,17221,29222,63235,05842,95952,95948,854.9553,480.5258,544.0564,086.9870,154.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,7555,2125,9576,6228,77810,26111,68212,79612,179.9613,333.1514,595.5315,977.4317,490.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 77,02285,70996,526113,240132,981133,768133,819136,527176,979.50193,735.87212,078.74232,158.30254,139
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 17,48619,54417,90818,27719,79226,48129,52432,01134,710.2737,996.6341,594.1545,532.2749,843.25
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,9382,6602,9022,2512,1812,6622,0631,8953,736.464,090.234,477.494,901.425,365.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,8287,4326,5916,8987,3908,6179,38212,53012,158.3313,309.4814,569.6215,949.0717,459.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,257-5,485-5,944-8,343-8,129-11,632-13,925-15,441-13,572.34-14,857.36-16,264.05-17,803.93-19,489.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 257.89
Beta 0.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7,683
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.782
Total Debt 63,327
Total Equity 1,981,368.87
Total Capital 2,044,695.87
Debt Weighting 3.10
Equity Weighting 96.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 77,84986,83393,58085,32089,950110,360125,843143,015156,555.63171,378.28187,604.33205,366.66224,810.73
EBITDA 30,51933,09834,12927,91431,41045,31954,64165,75561,034.9166,813.6873,139.5880,064.4287,644.90
EBIT 26,76427,88628,17221,29222,63235,05842,95952,95948,854.9553,480.5258,544.0564,086.9870,154.72
Tax Rate 19.18%20.65%34.12%14.95%8.40%54.57%10.18%16.51%22.32%22.32%22.32%22.32%22.32%
EBIAT 21,630.2422,126.3718,560.6118,108.6020,730.4415,927.6838,585.2244,216.7137,950.3841,543.5145,476.8449,782.5854,495.98
Depreciation 3,7555,2125,9576,6228,77810,26111,68212,79612,179.9613,333.1514,595.5315,977.4317,490.17
Accounts Receivable --2,0581,636-369-1,515-6,689-3,043-2,487-2,699.27-3,286.36-3,597.51-3,938.12-4,310.98
Inventories --722-24265170-481599168-1,841.46-353.77-387.26-423.93-464.07
Accounts Payable -2,604-8413074921,2277653,148-371.671,151.151,260.141,379.451,510.05
Capital Expenditure -4,257-5,485-5,944-8,343-8,129-11,632-13,925-15,441-13,572.34-14,857.36-16,264.05-17,803.93-19,489.60
UFCF 21,128.2421,677.3719,126.6116,976.6020,426.448,613.6834,663.2242,400.7131,645.5937,530.3241,083.6844,973.4749,231.55
WACC
PV UFCF 26,812.2829,269.3429,492.4129,717.1829,943.67
SUM PV UFCF 157,783.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51,200.81
Terminal Value 1,103,465.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 729,138.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 886,921.79
Net Debt 49,751
Equity Value 837,170.79
Shares Outstanding 7,683
Equity Value Per Share 108.96