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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Boston Beer Company Inc. (The)

Boston Beer Company Inc. (The) (SAM)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 739.05902.97959.86906.40862.98995.621,062.331,133.501,209.451,290.481,376.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 138.42180.78197.92186.72167.42168.26205.88219.67234.39250.10266.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 112.56145.65155.02137.14116.16116.29155.42165.83176.94188.80201.45
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.8735.1342.9149.5851.2651.9750.4653.8457.4561.3065.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 49.5276.3994.1691.0065.67108.4294.76101.11107.88115.11122.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 41.9836.8438.9736.7133.7434.0544.6247.6150.8054.2057.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 56.3951.2956.4452.4850.6670.2967.1471.6476.4481.5687.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.4435.5842.7140.6138.1447.0947.2750.4453.8257.4361.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -100.66-151.88-74.29-46.05-32.97-55.46-93.27-99.52-106.19-113.30-120.90
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 362.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.62
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.31
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.97
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.63
Total Debt -
Total Equity 4,211.70
Total Capital 4,211.70
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 739.05902.97959.86906.40862.98995.621,062.331,133.501,209.451,290.481,376.94
EBITDA 138.42180.78197.92186.72167.42168.26205.88219.67234.39250.10266.85
EBIT 112.56145.65155.02137.14116.16116.29155.42165.83176.94188.80201.45
Tax Rate 37.45%37.67%36.51%36.30%14.72%20.31%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%
EBIAT 70.4090.7898.4287.3699.0692.67108.02115.26122.98131.22140.02
Depreciation 25.8735.1342.9149.5851.2651.9750.4653.8457.4561.3065.40
Accounts Receivable -5.14-2.132.262.97-0.31-10.57-2.99-3.19-3.40-3.63
Inventories -5.10-5.153.961.82-19.633.15-4.50-4.80-5.12-5.46
Accounts Payable -1.147.14-2.11-2.468.950.183.173.383.613.85
Capital Expenditure -51.22-77.59-28.25-13.0822.4937.826.256.677.117.59
UFCF 96.27188.5063.59112.80139.57156.13189.07171.03182.49194.72207.76
WACC
PV UFCF 177.31150.42150.52150.62150.72
SUM PV UFCF 1,133.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.63
Free cash flow (t + 1) 216.08
Terminal Value 8,215.79
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,960.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,093.74
Net Debt -108.42
Equity Value 7,202.16
Shares Outstanding 11.62
Equity Value Per Share 619.70