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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Boston Beer Company Inc. (The)

Boston Beer Company Inc. (The) (SAM)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 739.05902.97959.86906.40862.98995.621,062.331,133.501,209.451,290.481,376.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 139.02181.68199.08187.17166.90167.86206.30220.13234.88250.61267.40
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 113.15146.55156.17137.59115.64115.89155.84166.29177.43189.31202.00
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.8735.1342.9149.5851.2651.9750.4653.8457.4561.3065.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 49.5276.3994.1691.0065.67108.4294.76101.11107.88115.11122.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 41.9836.8438.9736.7133.7434.0544.6247.6150.8054.2057.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 56.3951.2956.4452.4850.6670.2967.1471.6476.4481.5687.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.4435.5842.7140.6138.1447.0947.2750.4453.8257.4361.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 100.66151.7974.2049.9432.9755.4693.91100.20106.92114.08121.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 408.91
Diluted Shares Outstanding 11.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.31
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.97
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.36
Total Debt -
Total Equity 4,798.15
Total Capital 4,798.15
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 739.05902.97959.86906.40862.98995.621,062.331,133.501,209.451,290.481,376.94
EBITDA 139.02181.68199.08187.17166.90167.86206.30220.13234.88250.61267.40
EBIT 113.15146.55156.17137.59115.64115.89155.84166.29177.43189.31202.00
Tax Rate 37.45%37.67%36.51%36.30%14.72%20.31%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%
EBIAT 70.7791.3499.1587.6598.6292.35108.32115.58123.32131.58140.40
Depreciation 25.8735.1342.9149.5851.2651.9750.4653.8457.4561.3065.40
Accounts Receivable -5.14-2.132.262.97-0.31-10.57-2.99-3.19-3.40-3.63
Inventories -5.10-5.153.961.82-19.633.15-4.50-4.80-5.12-5.46
Accounts Payable -1.147.14-2.11-2.468.950.183.173.383.613.85
Capital Expenditure --51.1377.5924.2516.98-22.49-38.45-6.29-6.71-7.16-7.64
UFCF 96.6486.71219.51165.60169.19110.84113.09158.81169.45180.80192.91
WACC
PV UFCF 105.34137.78136.93136.09135.25
SUM PV UFCF 1,083.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) 200.63
Terminal Value 5,971.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,186.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,270.09
Net Debt -108.42
Equity Value 5,378.51
Shares Outstanding 11.73
Equity Value Per Share 458.37