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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Texas Pacific Land Trust

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)

Real Estate

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4166.10154.62300.20468.50731.141,141.021,780.672,778.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 40.1651.4575.3162.94145.44264.33434.44677.991,058.061,651.222,576.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.1451.4375.2862.89145.07261.75433.46676.451,055.671,647.482,571.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.020.020.020.050.372.580.981.542.403.745.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --45.0149.4279.59119.66260.91407.17635.43991.661,547.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.733.223.796.5517.7748.7544.2769.09107.83168.27262.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.860.830.870.835.6110.5110.0715.7224.5338.2859.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.04-0.03-0.20-0.96-18.73-47.85-23.33-36.41-56.82-88.68-138.39
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 709.75
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.87
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.94
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.17
Total Debt -
Total Equity 5,527.11
Total Capital 5,527.11
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4166.10154.62300.20468.50731.141,141.021,780.672,778.91
EBITDA 40.1651.4575.3162.94145.44264.33434.44677.991,058.061,651.222,576.89
EBIT 40.1451.4375.2862.89145.07261.75433.46676.451,055.671,647.482,571.05
Tax Rate 32.20%32.41%33.53%32.79%32.97%19.87%30.63%30.63%30.63%30.63%30.63%
EBIAT 27.2234.7650.0442.2797.24209.73300.70469.27732.351,142.901,783.61
Depreciation 0.020.020.020.050.372.580.981.542.403.745.84
Accounts Receivable -0.51-0.57-2.76-11.22-30.994.48-24.82-38.73-60.45-94.33
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --0.040.04-0.044.794.89-0.435.658.8113.7521.46
Capital Expenditure --0.000.170.7617.7729.13-24.5213.0820.4131.8549.71
UFCF 27.2335.2549.7040.28108.95215.35281.21464.72725.231,131.801,766.29
WACC
PV UFCF 248.48362.85500.36689.99951.49
SUM PV UFCF 1,582.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,836.94
Terminal Value 20,032.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,791.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,373.34
Net Debt -119.66
Equity Value 12,493.01
Shares Outstanding 7.79
Equity Value Per Share 1,604.26