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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Texas Pacific Land Trust

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)

Real Estate

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4159.91132.32300.20475.64753.611,194.011,891.792,997.36
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 40.1534.7875.2855.10120.15263.43411.71652.321,033.541,637.542,594.51
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.1334.7675.2655.06119.78260.85410.67650.661,030.911,633.372,587.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.020.020.020.040.372.581.051.662.634.166.59
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 13.2426.8245.0149.4279.58119.66251.90399.11632.351,001.891,587.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.733.223.796.5518.2148.7547.5675.36119.40189.18299.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.860.830.870.835.6110.5110.8417.1827.2243.1368.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 0.050.060.220.9818.7547.8825.5440.4764.12101.59160.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 745.55
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.87
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.94
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.99
Total Debt -
Total Equity 5,805.90
Total Capital 5,805.90
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4159.91132.32300.20475.64753.611,194.011,891.792,997.36
EBITDA 40.1534.7875.2855.10120.15263.43411.71652.321,033.541,637.542,594.51
EBIT 40.1334.7675.2655.06119.78260.85410.67650.661,030.911,633.372,587.92
Tax Rate 32.20%32.41%33.53%32.40%36.29%19.87%31.12%31.12%31.12%31.12%31.12%
EBIAT 27.2123.5050.0237.2276.31209.01282.89448.20710.131,125.141,782.67
Depreciation 0.020.020.020.040.372.581.051.662.634.166.59
Accounts Receivable -0.51-0.57-2.76-11.66-30.551.19-27.80-44.04-69.78-110.56
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --0.040.04-0.044.784.900.346.3410.0415.9125.21
Capital Expenditure --0.00-0.17-0.75-17.77-29.1322.34-14.93-23.65-37.47-59.37
UFCF 27.2323.9949.3533.7152.03156.81307.80413.48655.111,037.961,644.54
WACC
PV UFCF 307.80365.94513.14719.551,008.98
SUM PV UFCF 1,441.39

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,710.32
Terminal Value 19,024.72
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,330.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,771.81
Net Debt -119.66
Equity Value 11,891.47
Shares Outstanding 7.79
Equity Value Per Share 1,527.01