Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Texas Pacific Land Trust

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)

$451
-6.02 (-1.32%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 44.1055.2079.4166.11154.63300.22490.50771.481,213.441,908.573,001.924,721.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 40.1051.5275.3462.94145.54264.33411.16705.711,109.991,745.862,746.004,319.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.1051.5075.3162.90145.16261.75402.25701.791,103.811,736.152,730.734,295.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -0.020.030.040.382.588.913.926.179.7115.2724.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Total Cash 13.2026.8145.0149.4279.58119.65303.65400.25629.54990.181,557.412,449.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.703.223.796.5517.7748.7562.9976.57120.44189.43297.95468.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ------------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable ------------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-81.56-111.81-70.72-111.23-174.95-275.17-432.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 451
Beta 1.943
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.926
Total Debt -
Total Equity 3,498.15
Total Capital 3,498.15
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 44.1055.2079.4166.11154.63300.22490.50771.481,213.441,908.573,001.924,721.61
EBITDA 40.1051.5275.3462.94145.54264.33411.16705.711,109.991,745.862,746.004,319.07
EBIT 40.1051.5075.3162.90145.16261.75402.25701.791,103.811,736.152,730.734,295.06
Tax Rate 32.17%32.30%33.53%32.79%32.97%19.87%20.76%29.20%29.20%29.20%29.20%29.20%
EBIAT 27.2034.8750.0642.2897.30209.74318.73496.87781.511,229.211,933.383,040.95
Depreciation -0.020.030.040.382.588.913.926.179.7115.2724.02
Accounts Receivable -0.48-0.57-2.76-11.22-30.98-14.25-13.58-43.86-68.99-108.52-170.68
Inventories ------------
Accounts Payable ------------
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-81.56-111.81-70.72-111.23-174.95-275.17-432.81
UFCF 27.1035.3149.2938.5867.7199.78201.58416.50632.59994.981,564.962,461.47
WACC
PV UFCF 353.18454.86606.65809.111,079.13
SUM PV UFCF 3,302.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 17.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,559.93
Terminal Value 18,377.12
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,056.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,359.61
Net Debt -303.64
Equity Value 11,663.25
Shares Outstanding 7.76
Equity Value Per Share 1,503.69