Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Texas Pacific Land Trust

Texas Pacific Land Trust (TPL)

$669.96
29.44 (+4.60%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 44.1055.2079.4166.11154.63300.22490.50771.481,213.441,908.573,001.924,721.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 40.1051.5275.3462.94145.54264.33411.16705.711,109.991,745.862,746.004,319.07
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.0851.5075.3162.90145.16261.75402.25702.311,104.631,737.442,732.754,298.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.020.020.030.040.382.588.913.405.358.4213.2520.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Total Cash 13.2026.8145.0149.4279.58119.65303.65400.25629.54990.181,557.412,449.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.703.223.796.5517.7748.7562.9976.57120.44189.43297.95468.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ------------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.860.830.870.835.6110.5119.1918.5629.1945.9172.22113.59
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-81.56-111.81-70.72-111.23-174.95-275.17-432.81
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 669.96
Beta 2.012
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7,756.44
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 18.477
Total Debt -
Total Equity 5,196,502.53
Total Capital 5,196,502.53
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 44.1055.2079.4166.11154.63300.22490.50771.481,213.441,908.573,001.924,721.61
EBITDA 40.1051.5275.3462.94145.54264.33411.16705.711,109.991,745.862,746.004,319.07
EBIT 40.0851.5075.3162.90145.16261.75402.25702.311,104.631,737.442,732.754,298.24
Tax Rate 32.17%32.30%33.53%32.79%32.97%19.87%20.76%29.20%29.20%29.20%29.20%29.20%
EBIAT 27.1934.8750.0642.2897.30209.74318.73497.24782.091,230.121,934.813,043.20
Depreciation 0.020.020.030.040.382.588.913.405.358.4213.2520.84
Accounts Receivable -0.48-0.57-2.76-11.22-30.98-14.25-13.58-43.86-68.99-108.52-170.68
Inventories ------------
Accounts Payable --0.030.04-0.044.784.908.69-0.6310.6316.7226.3041.37
Capital Expenditure -0.10-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-81.56-111.81-70.72-111.23-174.95-275.17-432.81
UFCF 27.1135.2849.3338.5472.49104.68210.27415.72642.981,011.331,590.682,501.92
WACC
PV UFCF 350.88458.05608.07807.241,071.64
SUM PV UFCF 3,295.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 18.48
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,601.99
Terminal Value 17,969.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,696.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,992.71
Net Debt -303.64
Equity Value 11,296.35
Shares Outstanding 7,756.44
Equity Value Per Share 1.46