Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)

$ 1530
38.01 (+2.55%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4159.91132.33300.22490.50302.55439.68638.96928.561,349.411,961
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 40.1551.4475.2855.10120.15263.42408.48231.65389.86566.55823.331,196.491,738.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.1351.4275.2655.06119.78260.83407.40230.98388.89565.14821.291,193.521,734.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.020.020.030.040.382.581.080.670.971.412.042.974.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 13.2426.8145.0149.4279.58119.65303.65281.05259.71377.42548.48797.071,158.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.614.143.936.6518.2048.756348.2254.7379.53115.58167.96244.09
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1.131.131.111.111.1210.49107.0714.7021.3731.0545.1365.5895.30
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.860.830.870.835.6110.5119.1914.6812.3317.9226.0437.8454.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.05-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-9.38-74.58-5.09-19.95-29-42.14-61.24-89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,530
Beta 2.227
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.188
Total Debt -
Total Equity 11,866.92
Total Capital 11,866.92
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 44.1155.2079.4159.91132.33300.22490.50302.55439.68638.96928.561,349.411,961
EBITDA 40.1551.4475.2855.10120.15263.42408.48231.65389.86566.55823.331,196.491,738.78
EBIT 40.1351.4275.2655.06119.78260.83407.40230.98388.89565.14821.291,193.521,734.46
Tax Rate 32.20%32.41%33.53%32.40%36.29%19.87%20.76%19.85%28.41%28.41%28.41%28.41%28.41%
EBIAT 27.2134.7650.0237.2276.31209322.80185.12278.39404.56587.92854.391,241.63
Depreciation 0.020.020.030.040.382.581.080.670.971.412.042.974.32
Accounts Receivable -3.470.22-2.72-11.56-30.55-14.2514.78-6.51-24.80-36.05-52.38-76.13
Inventories --00.01-0-0-9.38-96.5892.37-6.66-9.68-14.07-20.45-29.72
Accounts Payable --0.030.04-0.044.784.908.69-4.51-2.355.598.1211.8017.15
Capital Expenditure -0.05-0.05-0.22-0.98-18.75-9.38-74.58-5.09-19.95-29-42.14-61.24-89
UFCF 27.1738.1650.0933.5351.16167.18147.16283.34243.87348.07505.83735.081,068.25
WACC
PV UFCF 168.82200.48242.40293.09354.37
SUM PV UFCF 1,513.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 20.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,110.97
Terminal Value 6,862.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,736

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,249.37
Net Debt -281.05
Equity Value 4,530.42
Shares Outstanding 7.76
Equity Value Per Share 584.11