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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered


Alpha Pro Tech Ltd.

Alpha Pro Tech Ltd. (APT)

Basic Materials

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 6.09-0.885.976.834.012.004.224.284.344.404.46
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.35-0.95-0.27-0.27-0.69-0.61-0.54-0.55-0.55-0.56-0.57
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5.74-1.825.706.573.321.393.683.733.783.843.89

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.56
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.87
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.84
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.06
Total Debt -
Total Equity 49.71
Total Capital 49.71
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 43.8147.6544.9646.1844.0346.6247.2947.9648.6449.3350.03
Operating Cash Flow 6.09-0.885.976.834.012.004.224.284.344.404.46
Capital Expenditure -0.35-0.95-0.27-0.27-0.69-0.61-0.54-0.55-0.55-0.56-0.57
Free Cash Flow 5.74-1.825.706.573.321.393.683.733.783.843.89
WACC
PV LFCF 3.343.082.842.622.41
SUM PV LFCF 23.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3.32
Terminal Value 54.87
Present Value of Terminal Value 33.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 55.46
Net Debt -7.26
Equity Value 62.72
Shares Outstanding 13.96
Equity Value Per Share 5.15

Results Levered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.06 (%) 3.70 Buy 3.85 Buy 4.03 Buy 4.26 Buy 4.54 Buy 4.90 Buy 5.38 Buy 6.04 Buy 7.04 Buy
11.56 (%) 3.60 Buy 3.74 Buy 3.91 Buy 4.11 Buy 4.35 Buy 4.66 Buy 5.07 Buy 5.62 Buy 6.41 Buy
11.06 (%) 3.52 Sell 3.64 Buy 3.79 Buy 3.97 Buy 4.19 Buy 4.46 Buy 4.80 Buy 5.26 Buy 5.91 Buy
10.56 (%) 3.44 Sell 3.56 Sell 3.69 Buy 3.85 Buy 4.04 Buy 4.28 Buy 4.57 Buy 4.96 Buy 5.49 Buy
10.06 (%) 3.37 Sell 3.47 Sell 3.59 Buy 3.74 Buy 3.91 Buy 4.12 Buy 4.38 Buy 4.71 Buy 5.15 Buy
9.56 (%) 3.30 Sell 3.40 Sell 3.51 Sell 3.64 Buy 3.79 Buy 3.97 Buy 4.20 Buy 4.49 Buy 4.87 Buy
9.06 (%) 3.24 Sell 3.33 Sell 3.43 Sell 3.55 Sell 3.68 Buy 3.85 Buy 4.05 Buy 4.30 Buy 4.62 Buy
8.56 (%) 3.19 Sell 3.27 Sell 3.36 Sell 3.46 Sell 3.59 Buy 3.73 Buy 3.91 Buy 4.13 Buy 4.41 Buy
8.06 (%) 3.13 Sell 3.21 Sell 3.29 Sell 3.39 Sell 3.50 Sell 3.63 Buy 3.79 Buy 3.99 Buy 4.23 Buy