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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


ExlService Holdings Inc.

ExlService Holdings Inc. (EXLS)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 478.45499.26628.47685.98762.33883.161,000.351,133.101,283.461,453.781,646.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 89.9066.05108.60119.84125.94116.05160.76182.09206.25233.62264.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 64.9738.0477.1185.2786.9867.30108.24122.60138.87157.30178.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 24.9328.0131.4934.5738.9648.7552.5259.4967.3876.3286.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 158.03192.72224.18233.92272.76288.62349.92396.36448.96508.53576.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 76.1280.2392.64113.05135.69164.71166.16188.21213.18241.47273.52
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.744.646.413.295.955.658.109.1810.4011.7813.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -15.93-27.66-25.58-25.86-35.14-40.45-43.22-48.95-55.45-62.80-71.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 67.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 35.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.65
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.23
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.53
Total Debt 263.56
Total Equity 2,359.34
Total Capital 2,622.89
Debt Weighting 10.05
Equity Weighting 89.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 478.45499.26628.47685.98762.33883.161,000.351,133.101,283.461,453.781,646.69
EBITDA 89.9066.05108.60119.84125.94116.05160.76182.09206.25233.62264.62
EBIT 64.9738.0477.1185.2786.9867.30108.24122.60138.87157.30178.17
Tax Rate 25.98%13.80%31.95%26.41%42.51%5.65%24.38%24.38%24.38%24.38%24.38%
EBIAT 48.0932.7952.4862.7550.0163.4981.8592.71105.01118.95134.73
Depreciation 24.9328.0131.4934.5738.9648.7552.5259.4967.3876.3286.45
Accounts Receivable --4.11-12.41-20.41-22.65-29.01-1.45-22.05-24.98-28.29-32.04
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --0.091.77-3.122.65-0.292.451.081.221.381.56
Capital Expenditure -11.73-2.080.289.285.312.775.736.507.368.33
UFCF 73.0268.3371.2474.0878.2588.24138.13136.96155.13175.72199.04
WACC
PV UFCF 112.44100.58102.78105.03107.34
SUM PV UFCF 632.97

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) 207.00
Terminal Value 3,026.27
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,808.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,441.91
Net Debt -25.06
Equity Value 2,466.97
Shares Outstanding 35.03
Equity Value Per Share 70.42

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.84 (%) 46.60 Sell 49.26 Sell 52.41 Sell 56.21 Sell 60.86 Sell 66.71 Sell 74.26 Buy 84.39 Buy 98.72 Buy
12.34 (%) 44.95 Sell 47.36 Sell 50.20 Sell 53.59 Sell 57.71 Sell 62.81 Sell 69.31 Buy 77.85 Buy 89.59 Buy
11.84 (%) 43.43 Sell 45.63 Sell 48.20 Sell 51.24 Sell 54.90 Sell 59.39 Sell 65.02 Sell 72.30 Buy 82.07 Buy
11.34 (%) 42.04 Sell 44.04 Sell 46.37 Sell 49.11 Sell 52.38 Sell 56.35 Sell 61.27 Sell 67.53 Buy 75.77 Buy
10.84 (%) 40.75 Sell 42.59 Sell 44.71 Sell 47.18 Sell 50.11 Sell 53.64 Sell 57.97 Sell 63.40 Sell 70.42 Buy
10.34 (%) 39.57 Sell 41.25 Sell 43.18 Sell 45.42 Sell 48.07 Sell 51.22 Sell 55.05 Sell 59.79 Sell 65.83 Sell
9.84 (%) 38.46 Sell 40.01 Sell 41.78 Sell 43.82 Sell 46.21 Sell 49.04 Sell 52.44 Sell 56.62 Sell 61.86 Sell
9.34 (%) 37.44 Sell 38.86 Sell 40.49 Sell 42.35 Sell 44.52 Sell 47.07 Sell 50.11 Sell 53.80 Sell 58.38 Sell
8.84 (%) 36.49 Sell 37.80 Sell 39.29 Sell 41.00 Sell 42.97 Sell 45.28 Sell 48.01 Sell 51.29 Sell 55.32 Sell