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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Facebook Inc.

Facebook Inc. (FB)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,872.0012,466.1017,928.7427,638.9540,654.1355,838.4582,730.25122,573.14181,604.37269,065.03398,646.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,765.186,153.278,139.6514,858.7023,620.0529,678.1442,978.3763,676.7594,343.47139,779.28207,096.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,754.414,910.406,194.3812,517.6820,595.3825,361.8335,623.6552,779.9978,198.84115,859.40171,657.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,010.761,242.871,945.272,341.023,024.674,316.317,354.7210,896.7516,144.6323,919.8835,439.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 11,449.0411,199.5418,434.3329,449.3041,711.1441,113.8578,668.20116,554.80172,687.59255,853.94379,073.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,109.161,677.942,558.433,993.835,833.877,588.4511,598.7817,184.7525,460.9337,722.9255,890.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 267.65377.72412.36583.18768.361,362.461,944.162,880.474,267.706,323.039,368.20
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,361.86-1,831.27-2,522.57-4,491.33-6,732.32-13,914.94-14,312.33-21,205.15-31,417.56-46,548.25-68,965.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 180.02
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,921.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.81
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.59
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.60
Total Debt -
Total Equity 525,838.42
Total Capital 525,838.42
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 7,872.0012,466.1017,928.7427,638.9540,654.1355,838.4582,730.25122,573.14181,604.37269,065.03398,646.75
EBITDA 3,765.186,153.278,139.6514,858.7023,620.0529,678.1442,978.3763,676.7594,343.47139,779.28207,096.98
EBIT 2,754.414,910.406,194.3812,517.6820,595.3825,361.8335,623.6552,779.9978,198.84115,859.40171,657.29
Tax Rate 45.53%40.12%40.46%18.38%22.63%12.81%29.99%29.99%29.99%29.99%29.99%
EBIAT 1,500.222,940.243,688.2310,216.7415,935.0722,112.7224,940.4136,951.7254,747.6681,114.14120,178.71
Depreciation 1,010.761,242.871,945.272,341.023,024.674,316.317,354.7210,896.7516,144.6323,919.8835,439.70
Accounts Receivable --568.77-880.49-1,435.40-1,840.04-1,754.58-4,010.34-5,585.97-8,276.18-12,261.98-18,167.36
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -110.0734.64170.82185.18594.10581.70936.311,387.232,055.333,045.17
Capital Expenditure -469.41691.301,968.762,240.997,182.62397.396,892.8210,212.4015,130.6922,417.64
UFCF 2,510.994,193.825,478.9413,261.9419,545.8832,451.1729,263.8950,091.6274,215.75109,958.05162,913.85
WACC
PV UFCF 26,700.6341,700.7656,372.1376,205.24103,016.13
SUM PV UFCF 225,606.48

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 169,430.41
Terminal Value 3,025,543.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,913,156.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,138,763.25
Net Debt -41,113.85
Equity Value 2,179,877.11
Shares Outstanding 2,921.00
Equity Value Per Share 746.28

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
11.60 (%) 411.33 Buy 445.17 Buy 486.06 Buy 536.46 Buy 600.12 Buy 683.07 Buy 795.64 Buy 957.16 Buy 1,208.42 Buy
11.10 (%) 391.08 Buy 421.49 Buy 457.92 Buy 502.36 Buy 557.77 Buy 628.79 Buy 723.09 Buy 854.38 Buy 1,049.71 Buy
10.60 (%) 372.62 Buy 400.05 Buy 432.66 Buy 472.06 Buy 520.63 Buy 581.98 Buy 661.91 Buy 770.40 Buy 926.05 Buy
10.10 (%) 355.74 Buy 380.57 Buy 409.88 Buy 445.00 Buy 487.83 Buy 541.24 Buy 609.69 Buy 700.58 Buy 827.12 Buy
9.60 (%) 340.26 Buy 362.81 Buy 389.26 Buy 420.70 Buy 458.68 Buy 505.50 Buy 564.64 Buy 641.70 Buy 746.28 Buy
9.10 (%) 326.03 Buy 346.58 Buy 370.52 Buy 398.78 Buy 432.64 Buy 473.93 Buy 525.43 Buy 591.42 Buy 679.06 Buy
8.60 (%) 312.91 Buy 331.68 Buy 353.44 Buy 378.94 Buy 409.25 Buy 445.88 Buy 491.03 Buy 548.06 Buy 622.37 Buy
8.10 (%) 300.80 Buy 317.99 Buy 337.81 Buy 360.90 Buy 388.16 Buy 420.81 Buy 460.64 Buy 510.31 Buy 573.96 Buy
7.60 (%) 289.58 Buy 305.37 Buy 323.47 Buy 344.46 Buy 369.06 Buy 398.30 Buy 433.63 Buy 477.18 Buy 532.20 Buy