Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


MercadoLibre Inc.

MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 472.60556.53651.81844.411,216.551,439.661,804.902,262.812,836.883,556.604,458.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 177.32150.32194.11239.98121.4136.57406.83510.04639.43801.661,005.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 165.46133.34170.90210.9380.54-9.21349.43438.08549.22688.56863.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.8616.9723.2029.0540.8845.7857.4071.9690.21113.10141.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 216.87371.93368.99493.73671.051,022.021,064.711,334.831,673.482,098.042,630.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 77.93131.84160.34333.37549.27395.48532.09667.08836.311,048.491,314.49
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --0.201.102.554.613.073.854.826.057.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 195.80263.13308.63540.85894.28991.351,030.241,291.611,619.292,030.112,545.15
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -113.75-34.45-62.51-76.93-74.82-97.61-186.27-233.52-292.77-367.04-460.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 574.48
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.10
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.16
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.95
Total Debt 602.23
Total Equity 25,581.37
Total Capital 26,183.60
Debt Weighting 2.30
Equity Weighting 97.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 472.60556.53651.81844.411,216.551,439.661,804.902,262.812,836.883,556.604,458.91
EBITDA 177.32150.32194.11239.98121.4136.57406.83510.04639.43801.661,005.04
EBIT 165.46133.34170.90210.9380.54-9.21349.43438.08549.22688.56863.24
Tax Rate 27.95%40.37%29.70%26.42%74.51%44.10%40.51%40.51%40.51%40.51%40.51%
EBIAT 119.2179.51120.14155.2120.52-5.15207.87260.61326.73409.62513.54
Depreciation 11.8616.9723.2029.0540.8845.7857.4071.9690.21113.10141.79
Accounts Receivable --53.91-28.50-173.03-215.90153.80-136.61-134.99-169.24-212.17-266.00
Inventories ----0.90-1.46-2.051.54-0.78-0.98-1.22-1.53
Accounts Payable -67.3345.50232.22353.4497.0738.89261.37327.68410.81515.04
Capital Expenditure --79.3028.0614.42-2.1122.7988.6647.2659.2474.2793.12
UFCF 131.0730.60188.40256.96195.38312.23257.74505.43633.65794.41995.95
WACC
PV UFCF 215.58353.58370.76388.78407.67
SUM PV UFCF 1,148.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 19.56
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,035.79
Terminal Value 6,656.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,724.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,873.15
Net Debt -419.79
Equity Value 4,292.94
Shares Outstanding 44.53
Equity Value Per Share 96.41