Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


MercadoLibre Inc.

MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 472.59556.53651.81844.411,398.101,439.621,822.412,306.992,920.423,696.964,679.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 165.41145.31179.70219.89108.07-12.24369.40467.63591.97749.37948.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 153.55120.49139.23181.0456.34-69.39292.13369.81468.14592.62750.20
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.8624.8240.4838.8451.7357.1577.2797.82123.83156.75198.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 140.27223.17368.99487.48597.69901.92879.311,113.121,409.101,783.782,258.09
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 25.9046.6928.4225.4228.1035.1378.0098.74124.99158.23200.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories --0.201.102.524.613.103.924.966.287.96
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 34.4057.9962.05105.13221.04266.76224.89284.68360.38456.21577.51
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 113.7534.4539.1768.5755.2293.14166.39210.63266.63337.53427.28
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 673.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 44.10
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.16
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.29
Total Debt 602.23
Total Equity 29,968.88
Total Capital 30,571.10
Debt Weighting 1.97
Equity Weighting 98.03
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 472.59556.53651.81844.411,398.101,439.621,822.412,306.992,920.423,696.964,679.99
EBITDA 165.41145.31179.70219.89108.07-12.24369.40467.63591.97749.37948.63
EBIT 153.55120.49139.23181.0456.34-69.39292.13369.81468.14592.62750.20
Tax Rate 27.95%40.37%29.70%26.42%74.51%44.10%40.51%40.51%40.51%40.51%40.51%
EBIAT 110.6371.8497.87133.2114.36-38.79173.79220.00278.50352.55446.29
Depreciation 11.8624.8240.4838.8451.7357.1577.2797.82123.83156.75198.43
Accounts Receivable --20.7918.273.00-2.68-7.02-42.87-20.74-26.25-33.24-42.07
Inventories ----0.90-1.42-2.091.51-0.82-1.04-1.32-1.67
Accounts Payable -23.594.0643.08115.9145.72-41.8859.8075.7095.83121.30
Capital Expenditure -79.30-4.72-29.3913.34-37.92-73.24-44.24-56.01-70.90-89.75
UFCF 122.49178.76155.96187.84191.2417.0694.58311.81394.71499.67632.53
WACC
PV UFCF 94.58271.02298.20328.11361.02
SUM PV UFCF 1,060.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 657.83
Terminal Value 5,953.24
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,953.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,013.83
Net Debt -299.69
Equity Value 4,313.52
Shares Outstanding 44.53
Equity Value Per Share 96.87